NEWSWEEK POLL: DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION 2004 -- Kerry/Edwards Leads Bush/Cheney 52 to 44 Percent

PR Newswire ^ | 31 July 2004

[tobyhill]

I don't see any candidate over 50% at this time. This is BS!

[Nascardude]

Oops. The site is http://www.uselectionatlas.org

[MissyMa]

I did a Lexis/Nexis search for Newsweek polls after the Democratic Convention for Gore in 2000 and this is what I got.

Copyright 2000 Newsweek
Newsweek

August 19, 2000, Newsweek Web Exclusive

SECTION: NATION

LENGTH: 442 words

HEADLINE: Gore Gets Back in the Race

HIGHLIGHT:
The Democratic Convention and candidate's acceptance speech propel him to a six-point lead in the latest Newsweek poll.

BODY:
Al Gore got just what he wanted from the Democratic National Convention. The presidential candidate received a 10-point bounce from his party's Los Angeles gathering, a new Newsweek poll shows.

Gore, who had been trailing Republican rival George W. Bush 48 percent to 38 percent heading into the convention, had been hoping to close the gap or draw even, aides said. He did even better than that. Gore now holds a 48 percent to 42 percent advantage in a four-way race that also includes Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan and Green Party representative Ralph Nader.

In a two-way contest, Gore leads 52 to 44, the Newsweek polls says. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus four points.

The convention helped Gore improve his ratings on likability and honesty among the voters. Seven out out of ten voters polled said Gore is personally likable, compared with 61 percent in the previous week's poll. And while just 52 percent of poll respondents in that poll considered Gore honest and ethical, nearly two out of three (64%) attributed those qualities to him in the wake of the convention.

Gore also gained on several key issues, including health care, the economy and Social Security. More than half (54%) of voters said they believe Gore shares their view on most issues, compared to 45 percent last week.

Snip

There is no link because it's Lexis/Nexis and they don't provide links with archived items.

[Ole Okie]

Well within the MOE, which means NO bounce. Its just noise.

Most of the jumping around we're seeing in such things as daily polls is just that -- statistical noise, and literally meaningless.

[tobyhill]

These polls are conducted when most voting public are at work. To get a good poll they need to survey 5.6% of the unemployed and 94.4% of the employed. Also calculate the Urban population with Suburban and rural areas. I guarantee the numbers will be more reflective of the facts. Just my opinion.

[RoseofTexas]

In a two-way contest, Gore leads 52 to 44, the Newsweek polls says. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus four points.
Hmmmmmmmmmmm..52 to 44? Where have I read that before...OH YEAH that's this week NewsWEAK poll! Think they just copied and pasted the article instead of REALLLLY polling? Just wondering..:)

[OldFriend]

Not likely at all.

[Ed_in_LA]

in 2000, Rasmussen's final poll had Bush leading Gore 49%-40%. Newsweek's final poll had Bush leading Gore 45%-43%. Both were wrong, but Rasmussen was well outside the margin of error.

[comebacknewt]

If W has really surged amongst Indys as much as this poll suggests, Kerry may indeed be toast. I had hoped they would have been turned off by the RAT fest, but I never dreamed it would be that big a move.

I suspect the numbers are still a bit volatile and will settle down in a few days to be an even race again. Great outcome for us heading out of the RAT convention and into the Olympics, our convention, and the 9/11 anniversary.

[tobyhill]

The way they get by with this bull is to say +/- 4, then that could give Bush 48% Kerry 48%

[jveritas]

Thank you for this information.

It just amazing how the summer polls are way off from actual Election results.

[LibLieSlayer]

Not even registered voters. The Newsweek poll using registered voters (referenced in the article), took place before the convention!

"For THIS poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,010 ADULTS aged 18 and older on July 29-30, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points".

LLS

[Salvey]

Edwards may be a good debator due to his trial-lawyer experience, but Cheney will hold no punches and speaks very directly.

Remember: opening and closing statements to juries are light years different from real debates. Rarely do the adversaries address the others' issue, but simply plow on, repeating their own mantras ad nauseum. Trial advocacy is essentially "speechifying", without the give and take of a real debate.

[No Dems 2004]

ANOTHER IMPORTANT STATISTIC FROM THIS NEWSWEEK POLL THAT SUGGESTS THAT DEMOCRATS WERE INDEED OVERSAMPLED:

"If the election for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward the Republican or the Democrat?" Options rotated"

51% Democrat and only 41% Republican. What other poll shows a spread that big??

Time will tell, but either Rasmussen or Nesweek is wrong.

[sevry]

Kerry enjoyed a +5 point bounce

I disagree. While polls can't do this, if it were possible to identify voters and their votes, today, as a snapshot, I think the Bush Campaign is probably a good 6-7% ahead. And I would guess, that if you could identify such voters in that way, that one might discover that Kerry lost 1-2% as a direct result of the Dem convention, among Democrats now who are more likely to vote Nader, or less likely to vote at all.

[Aeronaut]

In a two-way trial heat between theRepublican and Democratic Presidential candidates, among registered voters,Sen. John Kerry/Sen. John Edwards lead President George Bush/Vice-President Dick Cheney 52-44 percent, according to the latest Newsweek Poll. In a three-way race with the Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo ticket added, Kerry/Edwards receives 49 percent of the vote; Bush/Cheney, 42 percent and Nader/Camejo, 3 percent, the poll shows.

The poll sampled 500 likely votors emerging from the Fleet Center in Boston last thursday, the magazine reported.

[Arizona Carolyn]

The MSNBC Question of the Day (today) is a good example of how biased these things can be: The question is on who would do a better job with our security -- and 2 - 1 they are voting for "Kerry." Go figure, some people have mush between their ears.

I've never in many, many, many years of voting been called on a Political Poll.... could it be becaused my husband and I are both registered Republicans?

[finnigan2]

"b) Cheney vs. Edwards - Despite the Dems insisting that Edwards is more experienced (they certainly are delusional), Cheney will out-gun Edwards on the experience factor. Edwards may be a good debator due to his trial-lawyer experience, but Cheney will hold no punches and speaks very directly. I believe the people will see Edwards as a legalistic hair-splitter (very Clintonian) and Cheney as a straight-talker. Edwards will be humiliated."

- From what I have read, Edwards knows dick about foreign affairs and couldn't find the Sudan on a map if he tried. Cheney, with his years of international knowledge and experience should try wherever possible, to draw Edwards onto this virtual killing ground and swamp him with references to international names, places and issues that Edwards will have to skate on to try and keep up. If he slips, Cheney can humiliate him.

[KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle]

Bookmark.

[sevry]

Not even registered voters.

Wouldn't matter if they were. They polls can't tell you anything, meaningful. If they seem predictive, it's only coincidence and an eagerness to deny that Dewey beat Truman, as it was said.

'Serious internal' polls are paid for because 'push' polls are thought to marginally influence elections. So the pols pay lip service to polling in the hope that intentionally faked polls will fool a certain slice of the electorate. That's all this Newsweek poll is. It's a ginned up, paid-for poll intended to demoralize Rep voters and encourage the Dem by showing a lead that in all reality doesn't exist. It's probably the other way around, with a 6-7 point lead for Bush, if one were actually able to measure it - which polls cannot.

But even if the Bush campaign does enjoy a 7% lead, in reality, the election as everyone knows depends on state ballots. And the election is won or lost by how many votes are won in the electoral college. So such national polls are doubly meaningless.