Posted on 07/31/2004 11:52:27 AM PDT by demlosers
Did it include illegal aliens and convicted felons?
I'd like to agree but can't. Almost every poll shows a fairly large part of the electorate that has pretty much made up their mind.
If B/C was indeed up 6 or 7 points, it would show up somewhere in the polls. It doesn't - consistently the polls show a fairly even race with neither party getting more than 2 or 3 points ahead.
Lets not get stuck in denial or fantasyland. The Freepers collectively hypnotized themselves that the Clinton poll numbers during the Impeachment drama were fantasy - we were wrong. The polls were right. So we should look at the picture that the polls show us and evaluate from there, not make things up on instinct or worse.
No polls show Bush/Cheney ahead by 6-7 points, and further, no polls will. bush wins in November, +2 or +3 in the popular vote, 325 +/- 25 EVs, and we make good (but not overwhelming) gains in the Senate and shore up the House a bit.
anything else would be...uncivilized. ;-)
Kerry’s four-point “bounce” is the smallest in the history of the NEWSWEEK poll. There are several factors that may have contributed to the limited surge. Half of the poll was conducted on Thursday night, before Kerry had delivered his acceptance speech in Boston. On Thursday, Kerry had a two-point lead over Bush (47 percent to 45 percent in a three-way race with Nader). In Friday night polling, his lead over Bush grew to 10 points (50 percent to 40 percent). Additionally, Kerry’s decision to announce his vice-presidential choice of John Edwards three weeks before the convention may have blunted the gathering’s impact. And limited coverage by the three major networks also may have hurt Kerry.
Time will tell, but either Rasmussen or Nesweek is wrong.
Bigger convention bounce than I expected especially since some of this poll was taken before the speech
Thanks! It's easy to discount polls you dont like, but much better to understand what is really going on than whistle past the graveyard. So thanks for quantitatively explaining the Newsweak polling flaws.
Pollaganda, it is.
So the good news is:
- The convention bounce is as minimal as the Edwards bounce.
The bad news is:
- Bush is barely tied with a gigolo candidate who had such an awful Senate career he felt more assured running on his 4 months in Vietnam 35 years ago than his 19 years in the senate. And Bush, despite crushing 2/3rds of Al Qaeda and liberating 50 million people at a cost of less lives than were taken by people drowning in swimming pools in the last year in the US, despite having the fastest growth in 20 years, is judged with disapproval from 50% of the voters, who will turn to a say-anything do-nothing candidate who has contradicted himself and put liars (Joe Wilson) on his payroll ...
I am confounded and aghast.
Bush needs to be more aggresive and pointed than he was in in 2000 debates against Gore.
Registered voters... Newsweek had to resort to Registered Voters to get the number they wanted. Considering turnout hoovers between 50-60% of these registered viters, these numbers convey no information.
Despite what people say, there is as much interest in this election as there was in the last. So, the key to victory is to turn out the darn base.
Considering that Bush and Gore split in 2000, and much of the GOP vote in the later timezones was depressed because of the Florida call, I'd say that the trick is to get them to the polls and keep them at the polls.
Registered voters... Newsweek had to resort to Registered Voters to get the number they wanted. Considering turnout hoovers between 50-60% of these registered voters, these numbers convey no information.
Despite what people say, there is as much interest in this election as there was in the last. So, the key to victory is to turn out the darn base.
Considering that Bush and Gore split in 2000, and much of the GOP vote in the later timezones was depressed because of the Florida call, I'd say that the trick is to get them to the polls and keep them at the polls.
Not registered voters according to this post.
Not even registered voters. The Newsweek poll using registered voters (referenced in the article), took place before the convention!
"For THIS poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,010 ADULTS aged 18 and older on July 29-30, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points".
LLS
52 posted on 07/31/2004 12:57:06 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("Yeah, what CHENEY said"!)
Any poll that uses "national"numbers totals and not "state" totals break down numbers are utterly useless.
Why because we have the electoral system that is state by state, not an "national" election. It matters not that Kerry polls huge numbers in California and New York, which he is bound to win easily, if he cannot squeak out a bare majority in Missouri and Pennsylvania.
Dumb Dumb....
"What immediately comes to my mind is Edwards' Two Americas crap and Jesse Jackson's poverty pimping."
Barrack Obama(sp?) "One America" speech was COMPLETELY opposite Edward's' Two Americas tirade.
Yes ... but I also think if all Americans got the *real* story, not the phony lies of Dean, Moore, and lamestream fraudcast media, they would FLOCK to Bush as the better man for the war on terror by a wide margin.
The polls are showing the race neck-and-neck. I believe that.
I also believe that is a shocking testament to either media bias or shameless sellout of many people to real values, a free economy, and a secure nation.
Whatever..........
I agree but the national numbers show trends and consensus.
It is important for Dubya to win the Electoral College, of course, so he has a job for the next 4 years. It is also important that he wins the popular vote - that issue needs to be taken away from the other side, and frankly, the nation doesn't need what will be widely, if falsely, considered a 'tainted' win.
correct.
I don't believe there is going to be any "top down" rush of momentum towards Bush anytime in this election cycle. About the only thing that might trigger something like that would be killing Osama Ben Laden.
Bush will have to win this thing from the ground up - grass roots movements, friends talking to friends, turnout, etc. And that ground up effort also has to make up for what is a terrible RNC political team and communications/media strategy.
46 Percent Say Bush Closer to Their View on Gay Marriage
The odor of that statement is extremely foul, the numbers I have seen on that issue are over 60%.
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