Sorry for the delay, many things always seem to hit on the weekend. Summary 8/05/04 thru 8/8/04
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
(8/1/04) Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C
1. Attack threat windows - (8/3/04) An operative, described as "credible" by British intelligence, told his debriefers that the attack would take place "60 days before the presidential election" which is held on Nov. 2 of this year, according to a former senior National Security Council official. On Sept. 2 (about 60 days prior) President George W. Bush is expected to address the Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden.. It appears that this ‘early September’ attack window is getting more credibility from government sources to the media.
Secondary window: (8/5/04) No change. Between now and Nov 2, 2004. This window is based upon AQ threats to disrupt our national elections. This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005.
Threat Indicators
8/6/04 - A drop in so-called "chatter" among suspected terrorists is troubling some counterterrorism officials, who noticed a reduction in intercepted communications before the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, government sources said.
Diminished communication prompted the concern because the counterterror experts don't know why suspected terrorists would be talking less. But they noted that similar reductions have happened several other times during the past few years.
Debka is reporting that there has been a corresponding increase in new jhiadist websites where the content is celebratory. This same activity was last noted approximately two months before the 911 attack.
International
(8/8/04) There are rumors that OBL will soon be releasing a new vidio tape.
Iraq - 8/8/04 nothing new to report. Continue to pray for our troops.
Italy. – (8/7/04) Debka reports Italy raises terror alert at international airports from Bravo to Charlie (high risk). Some media reports suggest a specific threat towards American and Israeli airlines. They said the threat level has not increased and Italy remains under high state of alert.
8/7/04 - Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades said in a statement Saturday its cells in Italy were ready to strike if the country did not withdraw troops from Iraq before a 15-day deadline given by the group expired this month. On August 1st, Al Qaeda’s Abu Hafez Masry Brigades gave Berlusconi 15 days to withdraw 3,000 troops from Iraq or face terror attack on Rome.
"To our cells in Italian cities in Rome and everywhere in Italy, war is approaching...get ready to strike any target in front of you after the end of the truce," it said.
This is the 6th threat since July 15, the end of a ‘truce’ issued to Europe by OBL. Other threats issued July 2, 16, 26, 28 , 30 and August 5. Some U.S. officials and some terrorism experts believe Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, lacks credibility and has only tenuous ties to al-Qaida.
England (8/8/04) British authorities indicate that the country is still at a state of heightened alert.
8/6/04 - A British man, Babar Ahmad, 30, arrested earlier this week operated two U.S.-based Web sites to recruit and raise money for Taliban fighters and possessed a classified Navy document, federal prosecutors said Friday.
The document detailed planned movements of a battle group that included the USS Benfold, and a drawing of the group's formation when it was to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, the affidavit said. It also detailed the ships' vulnerabilities to attacks by small boats, the affidavit said.
Ahmad was allegedly communicating with a U.S. Navy enlistee on the USS Benfold who was sympathetic to the jihad cause. Authorities have not named the man, or accused the enlistee of providing the document to Ahmad. "You can rest assured the Navy knows who he is and is taking appropriate precautions," authorities said.
Iran / N. Korea
8/7/04 The United States has determined that North Korea is working on new ballistic missile systems designed to deliver nuclear warheads and that it is testing the technology by proxy in Iran, an official in President George W. Bush's administration said Thursday. Having agreed to a self-imposed test ban, North Korea is sharing technology information with Iran, which carries out missile tests on North Korea's behalf, the administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The missile program is based on Russian technology and has been conducted with help from Russian scientists - help the United States thinks may be continuing, the official said. A leading military publication, Jane's Defense Weekly, reported recently that North Korea was developing two new ballistic missile systems that "appreciably expand the ballistic-missile threat." A version of the missile capable of being launched from a submarine or a ship is potentially the most threatening, the weekly said. Not all of the details of the North Korean program are known to the United States, the administration official told The Associated Press. One important question, he said, is whether the missiles are exactly patterned on a Russian model. Another, he said, is whether the missiles could reach the United States.
Israel - (8/3/04) The Palestinian militant group Hamas has issued a video threatening daily attacks on the Israeli town of Sderot unless soldiers halt a month long operation aimed at stopping rocket attacks.
United States
(8/5/04) Portions of the country remain at a heightened level of alert. DHS issued the Level ORANGE alert for key facilities in NY, NJ and DC. According to officials, the alert is based upon multiple sources. LEO sources also indicated that terrorists had updated their target files on these locations as recently as this past spring. There are also indicators that the surveillance of these locations may have been an inside job.
(8/8/04) Recent disscussions on TM have speculated on what appears to be a shift of operational control (OPCON) from the ‘high command’ of OBL down to a lower echelon. This has precident in that Atta received OPCON from OBL, even to the point of designating the day of the attack. This lowers the profile of the communications signature, permitting more secure methods of communications to be used.
One thing is for certain, AQ was planning another operation. Recent communications changes seem to imply that it will occure in the near future.
2. Attack method.
A. (8/8/04) DHS briefing of 8/6/04 (see exerpts below) indicates the most probable attack method will be using car or truck bombs. As described by DHS, this has the makings for a classic AQ strike – 5 targets in regionally close proximity, somewhat lower on the radar screen than other, high profile locations, thus with the potential to be less well guarded. A coordinated operation involving up to six groups in a regional area (NE U.S.) would fit the MO of AQ. It is possible that this latest information could be related to the briefing given to congress last month, where Tom Dachel said that it was very serious.
Additional recent discussions on TM have looked at a number of attack option rankings. Hopefully I’ve been able to summarize HipShot and Exsoldier’s discussions - please let me know if I’ve misstated anything The highest ranking (LEVEL 1) would consist of massive, high casuality attacks potentially involving WMD. Due to the high value resources in trained personnel and equipment, these would be under relatively close control of OBL
The second level (LEVEL 2) would consist of more conventional attacks - car and truck bombs or other explosives placed to cause significant casualities or terror. Because AQ’s MO is to coordinate these attacks, a degree of control appears to be passed down to a local/regional commander to select sites, dates and times.
The lowest (LEVEL 3) would consist of cells/groups attacking targets of opportunity with little coordination. This is a significant portion of the insurgent operations currently in Iraq. If applied in the US, it would be conceived as bombings, sniper attacks, kidnappings and the sort.
Finally TM discussions have evaluated the potential scope / size of the attack. This has ranged from a 4-6 high value coordinated target / high casuality attack to a full spectrum of the three levels in the range of dozens of attacks. There are indicators for the possibilities. The LEVEL 1 / LEVEL 2 attack scenario appears to be what our government is anticipating. However, with the influx of ME coming in via Mexico, there is an additional concern about LEVEL 3 incidents that could occur in conjunction with a major attack. The LEVEL 3 would be harder for our national assets to identify and must rely upon LEO and citizen tips to id terrorists before any attack. B. Discussion in TM, internet and from national news sources indicate continued AQ interest in aircraft hijacking.
C. (8/3/04) IMHO, AQ nuclear option, though still rumored, does not appear to be as strong given the intel surrounding the 8/1 DHS alert, which indicates a more traditional truck bomb approach.
Personnel
8/7/04 Reuters learned from Pakistani intelligence sources on Friday that computer expert Mohammad Naeem Noor Khan, arrested secretly in July, was working under cover to help the authorities track down al Qaeda militants in Britain and the United States when his name appeared in U.S. newspapers. This hasn’t been confirmed by other sources.
8/6/04 Last summer, U.S. troops discovered Yassin Muhhiddin Aref's name, telephone number and address in a book left behind in a vacated terrorist training camp, a U.S. official told FOX News. The book also revealed that Ansar al-Islam, the group running the camp, had given Aref a title: "the commander." Aref, 34, is the Imam of the Masjid As-Salam mosque in Albany, N.Y.
(7/30/04) DHS is concerned about terrorists infiltrating into the US from Mexico. This could be why the US Border Patrol is increasing its attention to the southern border. Southern Arizona has been considered by some to be a terrorist haven area. According to the Tombstone AZ newspaper, a total of 77 ME men were captured between June 13th and 21st in S. Arizona.
One purpose the infiltration of ME men in to the US could serve would be to supply more people for more initial and follow-on car/truck suicide bomb attacks. The effect of dozens of simultaneous car-bomb attacks at soft targets (malls, amusement parks, sporting events, etc) would create substantial panic as this would reveal to the American people that we are far more vulnerable than the general person on the street thinks we are.
A second reason is that the US Moslem community is absent martyr complex and substantial cultural ‘brain washing’ prevalent with the Middle East jihadists and not inclined to commit suicide, thus the bulk of people needed to commit suicide bombings are having to be ‘imported’. With the exception of 911, the suicide car bomb has been the weapon of choice, needing only willing martyrs and the careful accumulation of explosive material (fertilizer, etc).
4. Significant meetings canceled:
A. (8/2/04) None I am aware of.
5. Security has been heightened in specific cities
(8/1/04) NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are now at threat level ORANGE. International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York
Additional security has also been implimented the American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros., Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve Bank, Bear Stearns, the UN, Wachovia, AIG, MetLife and JP Morgan Chase. The TransAmerica building, the well-known pyramid-topped skyscraper and the Bank of America Bldg in San Francisco also were on the computer files captured. However, threat levels were not raised by the DHS for these buildings.
(8/5/04) New security procedures are being put in place for the Federal Reserve in DC. Police in Washington DC are blocking all traffic flow around the Capitol, and to search some of the vehicles, to ensure that explosives do not get near the building.
(8/02/04) Until further notice, trucks are now banned from taking the Williamsburg Bridge into Lower Manhattan. The Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels are now closed to all in-bound commercial traffic.
GENERAL: (8/01/04) New Mexico officials also decided to raise the threat level for banking and financial companies there, and Massachusetts officials planned to send a letter advising financial institutions to review security measures.
Boston, Philly, Seattle, LA. Trains and buses searched - Significant development in east coast towns. Some of this is in response to the upcoming republican convention. Other major financial office centers in many cities are taking additional precautions.
Ports are getting a lot more security scrutiny. Diving teams are activity looking for mines, Coast Guard turning away ships as necessary. However, this appears to be in part in line with scheduled increased security posture and not necessarily in response to a specific threat.
6. Military operations.
The fleet is deployed conducting various maneuvers and exercises.
The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
(7/29/04) Elements of the 2nd Infantry division stationed in Korea are deploying to Iraq as scheduled.
7. Dept of Homeland Scty.
8/6/04 This is a joint FBI and DHS Information Bulletin. Below are excerpts of key points
ATTENTION: State Homeland Security Advisors, Facility Security Managers, Emergency Services Sector, Real Estate ISAC, Highway/Trucking ISAC, and Car, Truck and Limousine Rental Companies
OVERVIEW
As demonstrated by recent attacks in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and elsewhere, terrorist operatives worldwide continue to rely on vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) as a method of attack. This tactic has been used here in the past, notably in the 1993 World Trade Center and 1995 Oklahoma City bombings. The World Trade Center and Oklahoma City attacks were carried out with rented vehicles, highlighting the need for awareness among the car, truck, and limousine rental community of the potential for vehicle-borne attacks in the United States.
DETAILS
There is no standard type of vehicle associated with VBIEDs. Terrorists appear to select vehicles based on an assessment of vehicles common to and available in a region, vehicles possessing routine access to the target area or the security posture of the intended target. Vehicles of any type or size can be utilized in vehicle bombings, although the size of the explosive charge may, to some degree, dictate the size of the vehicle required. In the 1993 World Trade Center attack, approximately 1,200 pounds of improvised explosives were placed in a rental van which had been reported stolen by one of the conspirators. Other large vehicles-such as limousines-should also receive consideration as potential VBIEDs, since limousines have larger storage capacity than regular passenger vehicles. In addition, limousines often convey an impression of authority or prestige, which may facilitate their access to specific locations in a building or facility denied to the general public.
Analysis of terrorist preparations for past attacks overseas and in the United States suggests that preoperational indicators may be present in the days or weeks prior to an attack. The following indicators may point to possible planning to use rental vehicles in a terrorist attack. Alone, each indicator can result from legitimate commercial activity or criminal activity not related to terrorism; however, multiple indicators can suggest a terrorist threat.
* Customers who attempt to give vague or unverifiable references or employment information on rental agreements, who insist on paying in cash and/or who seem overly concerned about privacy.
* Attempts to expedite collection of deposits made on rental vehicles reported as "stolen."
* Suspicious inquiries concerning whether vehicles can be modified to handle heavier loads, create additional storage areas or increase fuel capacity or vehicle speed.
* Suspicious inquiries concerning the use of limousines by private drivers or a limousine's exact length, height or interior volume.
* Reports of rental vehicles parked for prolonged periods of time near sensitive facilities such as government, military, utility or other high profile sites.
* Suspicious attempts to gain employment at vehicle dealerships and/or rental agencies.
* Customers displaying burns or chemical exposure symptoms who provide vague or illogical explanations as to the circumstances surrounding the injuries.
* Returned rental vehicles with altered company logos, Department of Transportation numbers, or structural or appearance modifications.
CONCLUSIONS
The U.S. Government remains concerned that al-Qaida or other terrorist organizations are planning to carry out terrorist attacks in the United States during the summer and fall 2004 time frame. Although the FBI and DHS possess no specific information indicating terrorists plan to use rental vehicles, rental company personnel are encouraged to remain alert for indicators of preoperational activity and immediately report any situation that appears to constitute a terrorist threat to the FBI and DHS offices listed on the first page.
8. Domestic Terror Currently Not Linked to Jihadists
8/6/04 Scranton - The Chamberlain Manufacturing Corporation makes ammunition shells. Scranton police and the F.B.I. have information that two men were asking questions about the plant and investigators want to know why. They're said to be of middle eastern descent and traveling in a green sport utility vehicle without license plates. One may have a British accent.
(8/5/04) Lansdale resident Mark Shotwell found the object that resembled a surface-to-air missile on the Pennsylvania Turnpike earlier in the evening when he pulled over for a moment’s rest. “I was traveling back from Wilkes Barre and I pulled over to the side of the road to take a leak‚” Shotwell said. “I didn’t realize it was real until I got it here.” Shotwell said he found the device‚ which he initially thought was just a toy‚ leaning up against a trash can on the turnpike‚ not far from the Allentown exit. The object weighed about 5 pounds and was about 2 feet long. Bomb squad members later examined the device and determined that it was inert.
(8/5/04) Law enforcement officials said that searches were under way in the town of Wellsville, New York, which is near Buffalo close to the border with Canada and in another house in Lavallette, New Jersey, 85 miles east of Philadelphia. These searches are in connection with the spread of the anthrax bacteria in the mail in 2001 that killed five people.
These EFnK liberals are the real reason the American people have lost their respect among the enemy....NOT the actions of our President.
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You are so right. I hope the liberals will figure it out before it is too late. But I really think it is too late we're on our own. And I am not sharning my bullets;)
