Posted on 08/07/2004 8:34:03 PM PDT by DeaconBenjamin
China may attack the island in 2006, says business adviser, adding that the Olympics would not deter Beijing
THE heated rhetoric between China and Taiwan could see tensions break out into military action within two years, an analyst has warned.
As it is, some multinational companies, fearing the prospect of war, are firming up their emergency evacuation plans, Mr Michael Boyden, a business adviser to multinationals in Taiwan, told Radio Australia on Friday.
Likening the increasing intensity of cross-strait rhetoric to the 'boiling frog syndrome' - whereby a frog, oblivious to the steady rise in temperature, gets cooked alive - he warned that the situation, if left unchecked, could lead to military strikes.
'The pressure upon the Chinese government from the military establishment to let them sort the situation out, I think, is getting noticeably stronger,' said Mr Boyden, who is the managing director of Taiwan Asia Strategy Consulting.
'And unfortunately, the Taiwan issue has been coming into play in the apparent competition for influence between Jiang Zemin, the former president, and Hu Jintao, the present one.'
Without any serious attempt at some compromise resolution, cross-strait tension would likely deteriorate to 'a point where China has to demonstrate its resolve in some way', he said.
'This would have to be militarily,' said the analyst, who is also a contributor to the Economist Intelligence Unit's bi-weekly publication, Business Asia.
He warned that Beijing's hosting of the 2008 Olympics was no deterrent to an attack. In fact, China may strike before 2008, to avoid jeopardising the Games.
'It's assumed on the Taiwan side that China would not sacrifice the 2008 Olympics. I believe that they are right in a sense that the Olympics have to take place.
'So that means China has got to show its hand either before or after, and 2006 will probably be a good time for them to do it,' he said.
'It would give them a couple of years for everybody to forget about it before the Olympics came around and 2006 is (when) President Chen Shui-bian of Taiwan has said that he intends to have a revised Constitution up and running.'
Similarly, China would not be deterred by Washington's obligation to defend Taipei under the Taiwan Relations Act. And it was unlikely that the US would commit itself 'instinctively'.
'I think what we are going to see is China probing more assertively to test the United States mettle in this respect to see if they really have got the right stuff and really would come to Taiwan's defence,' he said.
'I would seriously doubt it that (the US) would leap to Taiwan's defence instinctively. I think if the situation were bad enough, they might, but it has to be pretty bad.'
Gee, perhaps even the leftist-greens might welcome such 'quantum diplomacy' in that it could nicely thin out these various insalubrious populations groaning over Mother Earth.
In other words, the Globalists are backing China. Cheap labor rules over right and wrong as usual.
the chip industry in Taiwan is huge - as are electronics in general. the sad part is - these companies will evacuate, to China.
the US has sold our soul to China because of all this free trade crap, add to that the corruption and nuclear secrets they took under Clinton. It may be too late to put the Taiwan genie back in the bottle.
We should be honest with Taiwan, I don't think we can go to war with China over them - maybe cuting a unification deal with the mainland would be in their best interests.
that's exactly right.
..And Of course China would want Mr Skerry in the whitehouse,
it would fit their agenda that he would "tell" china to go easy on Taiwan. The same way he would "talk" to the terrorists into giving up if he took office. Needless to say the chinese are commies and they would be rutheless and mericless in their take over of taiwan. The people would be serfs under communist rule.
why taiwan didn't develop nuclear weapons - they certainly have the brain power amongst their people - I do not know. Didn't they see this day coming?
I disagree. I don't think China can go to war with us over Taiwan. We should stand by/with Taiwan.
I think they already have evacuated. They all set up shop in Mainland China some time ago.
we would have to fire the first shot on China - when they attacked Taiwan. I don't think we would do it. China has North Korea as a surrogate, with nukes, who know what they would do with that card.
I don't think we would even put an embargo on Chinese goods - the globalists are in control.
Having said that, I must also say that from what I have observed, Nationalism and the concept of 'Patriotism' are values not commonly seen in Taiwanese business deals.
Just some food for thought.
With Kerrry in the White House it may reopen the entire question of who won the cold war.
The Chi Coms cant make even half way decent electronics or deal with US firms without Taiwanese engineers...
Rots of Ruck if they bomb Taiwan and vice versa...
Dealing with Chi Coms rather than Taiwanese is vely vely flustlating....
As the Chi Coms are vely big into CYA aka saving face
/sarcasm
indeed. what it will show is what the communists always said - if America goes down the tubes, it will go down from within. 2 terms for Clinton, 1 or 2 for Kerry, maybe a term or two for Hillary - that will be the end of it.
Is anybody foolish enough to think that if we stood by and let China roll over on Taiwan they would stop there? Sooner or later, we would have to confront them. It's far better to stand by our commitment to Taiwan and face down the Chinese, than become known for abandoning an ally and allowing China to take over where the soviets left off.
China would test a new President almost immediately.
That's fine. We'll get groups of working class men together to buy containers from Taiwan, then give the corporations here some competition. They've cowards for running away from Taiwan (great ally) so easily.
What it shows, is that they're all supporting Kerry for Pres. and running to trade with China. ...buncha jerks. Let 'em do it, then when the time comes, they can crawl into Chinese nuke shelters and pray for the first time in their lives. 'Cause if it happens, Taiwan, with its Pacific Rim friends and us, will certainly win.
If China takes Tiawan the China, not the USA is the global super power.
If they want Lurch elected, why don't they just fund his campaign the way they did Al Snore's? War is so messy.
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