Kerry will be beaten over being the most liberal US Senator and over his policy votes, or he won't be beaten at all.
No, I'm not buying this. Certainly there is more polarization than before but there are still plenty of folks who are not that mad at Bush, who normally tow the Democratic party line, but who would be swayed by info like this if they actually received it. Fewer than in other elections, perhaps, but still, there are some.