Posted on 08/09/2004 2:24:30 PM PDT by tmp02
Nice view of both storms...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
...Bonnie moving north-northeastward and getting better organized... ...Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch issued...
at 10 am CDT...1500z...the tropical storm watch for the Florida Panhandle and northwest Florida has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the mouth of the Suwanee River.
At 10 am CDT...15000z...a Hurricane Watch has also been issued for the Florida Panhandle and northwest Florida from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the mouth of the Suwanee River.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 25.9 north...longitude 90.3 west or about 235 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Bonnie is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph. A turn to the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected to occur later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center. NOAA buoy 42001 located northeast of the center of Bonnie reported a 10-minute average wind of 47 mph with a gust to 60 mph during the past few hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.
Recent heavy rainfall over the Florida Panhandle has saturated the ground. Additional rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected near the path of Bonnie by Thursday morning.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...25.9 N... 90.3 W. Movement toward...north-northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
$$
reconnaissance and satellite data...and reports from NOAA buoy 42001 ...Indicate Tropical Storm Bonnie has become much better organized and has strengthened. Buoy 42001 located about 45 nmi northeast of the center reported a 10-minute average wind of 41 kt with a gust to 52 kt. Gradient wind computations using a 10 mb pressure difference between Bonnie and buoy 42001 indicate near 50-kt winds are possible. Therefore...the intensity has been conservatively increased to 45 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 025/05. It appears that Bonnie has passed north of the mid-level ridge axis that extends westward from South Florida and is coming under the influence of an approaching shortwave trough located over the Southern Plains. Bonnie is expected to gradually accelerate over the next 24 hours and turn more northeastward later today...if it hasn't done so already. The global and regional models remain in good agreement on landfall occurring Thursday morning in the Florida Panhandle. The main concern is that with the mid-level winds forecast to become southwest or west-southwesterly by 24 hours...Bonnie could make a sharp turn more toward the east-northeast or east just before landfall occurs. This would be to the right of the current forecast track and this scenario will be closely evaluated for the next advisory. Due to the uncertainty in the exact location and intensity at landfall...a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch have been issued for the previous tropical Strom watch area.
The intensity forecast remains problematic with the burst of deep convection...tops as cold as -83c...that has developed over the center this morning. If recon finds an eye or eyewall forming later this afternoon...then it is possible that Bonnie could become a hurricane between the 12 and 24 hour time periods...before weakening occurs due to increasing wind shear just before landfall. Factors supporting possible strengthening to hurricane intensity are -- better inner-core wind field organization currently ongoing...deep convection currently over the center...low shear expected for the next 12 hours or so...and Bonnie passing over a warmer Gulf Eddy in 12-18 hours during the nocturnal convective maximum period tonight and tomorrow morning.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/1500z 25.9n 90.3w 45 kt 12hr VT 12/0000z 27.4n 89.0w 55 kt 24hr VT 12/1200z 29.6n 86.5w 60 kt 36hr VT 13/0000z 32.3n 83.4w 45 kt...inland 48hr VT 13/1200z 36.0n 79.5w 30 kt...inland 72hr VT 14/1200z 45.5n 70.0w 30 kt...extratropical 96hr VT 15/1200z...absorbed by frontal system
$$
I am not a meteorologist and I don't play one on TV, but it appears to me that there may be the possibility that we could have some very interesting weather here on the eastern seaboard in the next few days.
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