Posted on 08/09/2004 2:24:30 PM PDT by tmp02
000 WTNT32 KNHC 092028 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004
...BONNIE FORMS FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...23.2 N... 88.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
It took the NWS all that to say "My Bonnie lies over the Ocean"?
Hmmm, looks like a Thursday landfall near Pensacola, even though it's tracking northwest right now.
Ruh-roh.
The computer model indicates that it may cross into the Atlantic near Jacksonville and then proceed up the Atlantic coast.
Heade straight for Pensacola.
Gotta call my grandson down there. He works at the Winn-Dixie, and never listens to the news or weather reports.
The initial motion estimate is 310/10. There is limited model guidance available for this forecast package since none of the global models initialized the Bonnie circulation very well at 12z. However...all of the global and regional models agree on taking a weak mid-level trough from over the Southern Plains southeastward to the north-central Gulf of Mexico and weakening the subtropical ridge to the north of Bonnie. The result should be a gradual turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed as the steering currents weaken. By 48 hours...Bonnie is expected to turn northeastward and gradually accelerate ahead of a second and stronger mid-level trough that is forecast to push southeastward into the western Gulf of Mexico in 48 to 72 hours. The official forecast track is a blend of the GFDL...deep and medium BAM...and the GFS 10-member ensemble model forecasts.
The intensity forecast is somewhat problematic. Bonnie has a small and tight circulation...and will be moving into a lower vertical shear region over the central Gulf of Mexico...which would normally favor significant intensification to occur. The SHIPS model brings Bonnie to 83 kt in 72 hours...while the GFDL takes the cyclone up to 74 kt at the same time period. The argument against forecasting any robust intensification from occurring...at least in the short term...is the abundance of very dry air surrounding the cyclone... as seen in water vapor imagery...that Bonnie will have to navigate through for the next 24 to 48 hours.
East of Pensacola, around Destin and the Choctahachee Bay. Cool, if the forcasts stay on track it should roll right through my front yard.
Its so nice to get these hurricane things out of the way early in the season -- leaves so much more time for other pursuits.
Is this the same storm?
000
WTNT33 KNHC 092029
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON AUG 09 2004
...DEPRESSION MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT
30 MILES...45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRENADA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH
...35 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
TUESDAY.
WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...11.8 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
LOL & Grrrooaaaan!
It doesn't look very well organized at all. What are the water temps down that way?
No. This one is following right behind Bonnie
Alert!
This is not a good sign for the fall, is it? :-)
Is there a ping list for these storms??
One week shy of 35 years since Camille formed south of Cuba.
I was only five then but I remember watching the weather reports from ole Bob Neblett on WJTV out of Jackson. I don't think the conditions are right for that kind of strengthening but she's got the name for it.
I don't have a ping list. Sorry.
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