Posted on 08/10/2004 7:39:48 AM PDT by Pyro7480
RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA...AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42001...INDICATE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED. BUOY 42001 LOCATED ABOUT 45 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 41 KT WITH A GUST TO 52 KT. GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING A 10 MB PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BONNIE AND BUOY 42001 INDICATE NEAR 50-KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 45 KT.
IT APPEARS THAT BONNIE HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...IF IT HASN'T DONE SO ALREADY.... BONNIE COULD MAKE A SHARP TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EAST JUST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS WOULD BE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND THIS SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY EVALUATED FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL STROM WATCH AREA.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...TOPS AS COLD AS -83C...THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER THIS MORNING. IF RECON FINDS AN EYE OR EYEWALL FORMING LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BONNIE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR TIME PERIODS...BEFORE WEAKENING OCCURS DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. FACTORS SUPPORTING POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE INTENSITY ARE -- BETTER INNER-CORE WIND FIELD ORGANIZATION CURRENTLY ONGOING...DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTER...LOW SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND BONNIE PASSING OVER A WARMER GULF EDDY IN 12-18 HOURS DURING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
Most of the rigs and production are off the Louisiana and Texas coast, so this shouldn't have much impact on prices.
Good luck and please drive carefully.............and keep us posted once you get home.
That was Betsy all right. I was there too, and notwithstanding what the NWS claims, the eye passed right over us in uptown NO. The wonderful thing is, I wasn't afraid (much) because my parents were cool and under control. With the loss of so much wetlands since then, I wonder whether the city could survive another hit like that.
That was my favorite graphic from Isabel last year.....I still have it saved as well!!!
Stay safe, my FRiend.
Thanks, girl! It's still too early to board up, or know whether we need to evacuate. Just hyperchlorinated the pool. Next to pick up yard objects. Supplies are in good order, kitty carriers at the ready.
Venice has not and can not be moved, a proposal every bit as comprehensively impractical for her as it is for New Orleans. We have to deal with the reality of our predicament otherwise than by recourse to American Ingenuity. Media vita in morte sumus: In the midst of life, we are in death.
They moved from somewhere else to there. They can move from there to somewhere else. In fact, they are.
Good for you. Preparation is the key.
Knock on wood I'm too far inland to really have to worry about evacuating if we get one up the east coast or Chesapeake Bay.........wind is our major problem.
We were prepared for just about anything during Isabel last year...........except for the one thing we hadn't thought about - phone lines down!! LOL!
That's right; you can move Venetians. You just can't move Venice.
Governor Bush just declared a state of emergency for the entire state of Florida.
There is another storm looks like forming up out in the Atlantic. It was visible yesterday, but it has formed up more since then.
Yikes!
I'm news deprived at the moment - yung'un decided she wanted her shows on my TV when she got home from Bible School.
I just got an IM from a friend in WV asking if I was ready for Bonnie - I told her I was more concerned about Charley ---she thought I was talking about my husband working in its path, not realizing I was talking about the next storm!!!!
Where in the Atlantic?
Mid Atlantic east of Florida. It's probably too far north to sustain itself, but it has a definite spiral.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... AND ALSO ON STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY..LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS REMAINS MINIMAL...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
YEAH!!!!!!!!! Some good news!!!
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