As Bush and Kerry Focus Elsewhere, Atomic Threats Stew [Excerpt]
Wall Street Journal - Editorial
Aug 11, 2004
When Democrats gathered in Boston's boisterous Fleet Center for their national convention, there was, predictably, plenty of talk about Vietnam (John Kerry's old war) and Iraq (George W. Bush's new one).
But down the road at the more decorous Harvard Club, a group of foreign-policy professionals gathered, and their conversation was strikingly different. In a cavernous, dark-paneled room, the sense was that the most grave national-security problems facing the next president lie elsewhere: in North Korea and in Iran and their nuclear programs.
The mood was best captured by Graham Allison, a former Clinton national-security adviser, who declared: "If North Korea succeeds in becoming a nuclear-weapons state, which it could do at any moment...I believe historians will judge that the greatest failure in American diplomacy ever."
That's saying a lot, but the impulse is right. Americans correctly fear more terrorist attacks and more Middle East instability. Both threats will be far more grave if North Korea and Iran go fully nuclear. Yet the Bush and Kerry strategies for heading off calamity differ in significant ways.
In a world that has almost casually accepted Pakistan's and India's open acquisition of nuclear arms, the first question is why North Korea and Iran should strike such fear. Answer: India and Pakistan pose a threat mostly to each other. Iran and North Korea present threats that could ripple out much wider.
If North Korea -- which already claims to have a few nuclear bombs -- goes openly and promiscuously nuclear, dangers soar on two fronts. Asian neighbors that now focus on stopping proliferation might promptly reverse course and join the trend. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all could embark on nuclear programs in self-defense. The global taboo on nuclear proliferation would go out the window, and America's role as nuclear protector of its Asian allies -- and its associated influence in keeping things under control -- would be undermined.
The far larger danger is that North Korea would develop a cash-and-carry arms program, selling to rogue states and terrorists alike in its desperation to feed itself. As Mr. Allison noted at the Boston event, hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations, the only way to stop that process may be to use military force to destroy the Korean program, "since I can't imagine how if they're running such a production line I can prevent them selling weapons."
Iran isn't as irrational as North Korea but lives in a neighborhood where its decisions may be equally profound. As former national-security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski notes, Iran's nuclear impulse is understandable. Pakistan and India to its east, Russia to its north and Israel to its west all have nuclear arms. America seeks to set up what Iran sees as client-states on its eastern border, in Afghanistan, and on its western border, in Iraq. Tough neighborhood, Tehran's ayatollahs must tell themselves.
If Iran keeps moving toward a nuclear weapon, Israel may launch a pre-emptive military strike to stop it, as it did against Iraq two decades ago. If Iran crosses the finish line anyway, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, for starters, may decide they also need nuclear arms. Imagine how al Qaeda operatives, who looked to wealthy Saudis for cash, would relish a buildup of nuclear-arms material there.
The Bush formula for dealing with these twin threats is embodied in current policy. Much as he is criticized for going alone on Iraq, Mr. Bush actually is depending heavily on allied help. As recently as Monday, he reiterated that his formula for dealing with North Korea's nuclear program is to avoid direct negotiation with the North and rely instead on the current six-nation talks in which the U.S. is joined by Japan, South Korea, China and Russia in trying to talk down Pyongyang. Mr. Kerry says he'd be willing to talk one on one with North Korea. ...
http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_7573.shtml
http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_3269.shtml
Iran Arrests U.S. Citizen for Illegal Entry
Aug 11, 2004, 11:54
Iran has arrested a U.S. citizen who entered the country illegally from Pakistan. Citing an unnamed provincial official in the southeastern Sistan-Baluchestan state, ISNA said the man was a Jewish Californian who was detained by security forces Tuesday after crossing the Pakistani border apparently en route to Turkey.
"It makes no difference to us what nationality he has, the important thing is he entered our soil illegally," the official said.
State television said the arrested man was "probably American" and had been detained as he attempted to leave Iran, but Interior Ministry officials said they could not confirm the arrest. Foreign Ministry and provincial officials could not immediately be reached for comment.
The Baztab news Web site, which is well informed on security matters in Iran, also said a 32-year-old Jewish Californian had been arrested entering Iran from Pakistan.
U.S. visitors to Iran are rare but are not barred from traveling to the Islamic Republic provided they obtain a visa beforehand.