Posted on 08/16/2004 9:57:08 PM PDT by GeronL
http://blogs.salon.com/0001330/
Explaining quick polls and exit polls Now I understand a little better what Carter and Gaviria said. Let me explain. You vote in an electronic machine. At the end of the day the machine has a total that is transcribed and then transmitted to the CNE. There were three exit polls performed and there were various quick polls performed.
In an exit poll you ask voters how they voted. In the quick poll you check that the total at the machine level is the same registered at the CNE after transmission. What the Carter Center did was quick polls and they say they coincide with the results. Moreover, Carter said that Sumate also did a quick poll and it also coincides with the results, although the difference is smaller.
What does not coincide is that the results of the three exit polls does not correspond to what the quick polls say in the sme centers. Supposedly, 1% of the machines were going to be checked manually, by counting the paper ballots printed by the machines when you voted and comparing with the results of the machines. This was not done. There is a 15-18% difference between the two types of poll.
All exit polls agree with each other within error. The CD is asking that 2-3% of the polling stations be checked and the number of paper ballots coincide with the results of the machines. Thus, if fraud took place it took place at the machine level.
If this is not done within the next two days, this will simply remain a mistery for years to come. For the peace of mind of the country the CNE should do this and if possible do all polling stations to remove any lingering doubts.
http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2004/08/electoral-fraud-or-not-electoral-fraud.html
(Graph of the voting at above link) --------------------------------------------
More bloodshed in Altamira Square Unfortunately, now there is more bloodshed associated with the election. Some people were protesting in Plaza Altamira this afternoon when some cars and motorcycles showed up with supposedly pro-Chavez supporters. These three guys are seen shooting in this image. Eight people were injured including Solidaridad Deputy Ernesto Alvarenga
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http://www.vcrisis.com/index.php?content=letters/200408161552
Monday, August 16, 2004
Doubts but no proof, can't say more than we lost It has been a long three days. I have had so little sleep it is absolutely ridiculous. I have tried as much as possible to report the facts as they happened, interpreting little, as writing when you are tired and emotional is always dangerous, unless you are writing poetry.
At this point I have to accept that we lost. Until I see a piece of paper showing that the machines and the paper ballot were inconsistent, there is little that I can say. Do I think there was fraud? If only one exit poll existed, performed by a flight by night operation, I would say there was no chance. If I did not know people directly that participated in them, I would say no chance. But the truth is that there were at least three exit polls, one of them performed by US firm Penn, Schoen and Berland. All three were consistent. And my friends involved in the exit polls are very adamant today. So I have to be suspicious at a 17% margin of error in the exit polls. But I can not go beyond that. I can not accuse, I can only ask for more explanations.
What is amazing to me is that such doubts could be quickly removed from all of us by some simple audits. By tomorrow night all doubts could be dissipated if the CNE made this a priority. And if they don’t, people will get even more suspicious. For the sake of our future, I hope they do it and everyone can be sure about what happened. Either way.
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http://caracaschronicles.blogspot.com/
None of it makes any sense...
But it looks very much to me like the government won fair and square. If it didn't, it'll come out in the paper-trail audit, which CNE's Jorge Rodriguez has already agreed to.
If the government did win fair and square, the Coordinadora Democratica has a LOT of explaining to do. In fact, if the government did win fair and square the Coordinadora Democratica leadership has a lot of resigning to do.
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The Electoral Coup d'Etat in Venezuela By Daniel Duquenal Mid morning update - The opposition is strangely subdued. This is the first thing that I am hearing from people that I talk to. Well, what did people expect? For the opposition to take arms and go to the streets on a rampage? Specially when Chavez has given the day off to public workers and when lots of business decided not to open?
No, the action will come later. There is a simple reason for that: when a government pulls out such an outright lie one must expect the worse from it. They probably are just waiting for a final "provocation" from the opposition to start mass arrests, or something equally unpalatable. So, we must keep cool heads for the next few hours.
Some of the morning talk shows were cancelled outright. The only noteworthy apparition, for me anyway, was William Ojeda in Globovision (not that the other ones were not worthy but the mission of Mujica and Martin was to keep cool, thus not high on drama). Well, Ojeda is a "Street Leader". That is, he is one of the few opposition guy who has been working really close to the popular areas and has carved for his movement a real niche. Polls actually give him a good position in the popular areas of Caracas. His comment was quite simple: where is the chavista celebration, besides a few paid for fireworks and petards? (which was already mentioned in a previous post, by the way, keen observer that this blogger tries to be).
Ojeda is right. If chavismo did indeed get the numbers they claim to have gotten, where is the celebration? I have an answer: they know their relatives and neighbors and they know that the NO was not that high. They feel the scam. It is just too obvious and they have been cheated so often in the past that they know a scam when they see one. The TV is showing images of a rather quiet city. And the rain in Caracas adds a very interesting gloomy touch to what should be a chavista major celebration. They committed fraud and they know it and they know we know it.
People are consternated. Some mention to me the foreign press which is giving Chavez the winner. And what else did they expect? Is the New York Times going to send a team to recount the ballots? Do they care about anything else but stable oil prices? The foreign press today can only but report what the official institutions of Venezuela are reporting. Even if they aready know that they are not to be trusted, those are the news at this time and they must report it. They will someday denounce the fraud, but they must be sure of it first. I will say one thing: the bigger the lie the more of a chance for people to buy it! And Chavez has just done so. It is inconceivable in civilized countries with real institutions (the US and Western Europe in particular) that a government could lie and commit fraud the way Chavez has been doing for 3 years now. Look at how long it took Britain to finally accept that Mugabe was a thug and act on it. Look how many weeks Fujimori survived the adverse verdict of the OAS.
I did take a short nap and now I am back in full swing. But I must go to work for a little while. My work computer has its modem shot so I will probably not be back with a comment until mid afternoon. Meanwhile I want to thank all those that have sent support. I really appreciate it, and I must recognize that I need it to keep the good fight. But I ask you to keep sending it to other bloggers, to write US and European papers, etc, etc... DO YOUR BIT FOR VENEZUELA!
Unfortunately, now there is more bloodshed associated with the election. Some people were protesting in Plaza Altamira this afternoon when some cars and motorcycles showed up with supposedly pro-Chavez supporters. These three guys are seen shooting in this image. Eight people were injured including Solidaridad Deputy Ernesto Alvarenga
Seeing that idiot Jimmy Carter stand by these results turns my stomach and leaves me even more suspicious. And then to see Chavez taunting President Bush. I don't believe the results for a second.
Would you recommend this blog as a good one to keep up with the situation there?
You would have to check all 3 anti-Chavez sites. Caracas Chronicle seems ready to give up. sad.
My sister in Margarita Island told me that she was amazed of a long line she saw forming near her apartment in Porlamar. No, it wasn't a line to gp and cast their votes, it was a long line to a Bank. She asked a poor woman who was on the line about what were they on line for: "Gua.. pá cambia el cheque que nos dieron los señores...!
"well, we are here to cash the checks those guys gave us...!"
Every poor person in the marginal areas of Porlamar were given a bag of food, a bottle of Ron and a check for Bs 30.000. Is that democracy? Sad, very sad for Venezuela that this man is in power, the truth will flourish soon, wait and see.
Alexander calderon • 8/16/04; 4:16:39 PM #
It's up to the army now. This was a dog and pony show from the start.
Looks like the population of Little Caracas in Miami is about to get a lot bigger.
The Army has been cleaned out of any opposition to Chavez, next comes nationalizing the media, killing, jailing and repressing the opposition, Zimbabwe-style land reform and even a crackdown on the church.
The genius of the way Democrats steal elections (dead voters, bribed voters, felon voters, multiple residency voters, assumed identity voters, et al) is that it will not show up in a recount of the figures. It requires going over the voter rolls and trying to figure out how 102% of the voting public responded in a minority district.
I can't pretend to offer any advice right now, the stakes are too high, and I am not the one who will have to pay.
But this puts a couple of things into perfect relief. The first, is that this is a reminder to anyone paying attention that democracy is not freedom, democracy is a means to that end. It is a tool. If you focus on democracy and lose track of the true prize, you are done.
Never go into a democratic contest with someone who doesn't believe in liberty. Democracy is a means by which brethren persuade one another. Someone who doesn't believe in liberty is not your brother, he is your enemy. You don't risk your liberty in a democratic contest with such a person, you declare war on him, you drive him out of the political realm and deal with him by military and judicial means.
But the horse is out of the barn now, men who don't believe in liberty have taken control of the game and by the rules of the game, you lose. What do you do when men who don't believe in law, take control of the law?
Democracy is meaningless without the rule of law. Democracy without law is a one-way trip. Once law has been broken you are in a lawless land, when men have taken control who will not relinquish power, you are in a revolution whether you declare it so or not.
What do you do when almost half the country is willing to defend the revolution with their blood, and the majority who want freedom, also want civil peace? You lose. You watch your country go down the drain.
It is in a moment like this that you come to understand who Pinochet was, why Chile is not Cuba today, and why Chileans owe their liberty to a flawed man who was willing to act in a desperate moment. Chile is the free-est county on the continent thanks to an aging general who took power back from the lawless, and then relinquished it.
Venezuela is not so lucky, it seems. Cuba will win its freedom before Venezuela does.
bttt
Venezuela is no longer a democracy in my opinion. Its a mobocracy that is going to make Zimbabwe look like a paradise in a few years.
Well said!
Sadly, couldn't agree with you more.
The opposition in Venezuela do not know, or know and are afraid to think it, whats about to hit them.
I've been checking out those 3 websites. Its a very sad situation.
Not a bit surprised. Chavez could not survive an honest election.
BTW, hi Cincy.
This vote was stolen without a doubt.
I wonder. With Chavez's backing, Castro's successor will have a bankrolled and ruthless benefactor.
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