Posted on 08/17/2004 7:23:27 AM PDT by boris
Heat spike warned for L.A.
Scientists issue global warming report
By Harrison Sheppard
Sacramento Bureau
If the world's population continues burning fossil fuels at the current rate, global warming could lead to more heat-related deaths in Los Angeles by the end of the century, plus severe water shortages and summers comparable to those in Death Valley, according to a study released Monday. The study by 19 leading environmental scientists, published by the National Academy of Sciences, examined the impact of global warming on California. It found that even in a best-case scenario, with a concerted effort to reduce the use of fossil fuels, temperatures will still increase sharply by 2099, summers will be longer, and water provided by the Sierra Nevada snowpack will be in short supply.
But if there is no such effort and usage continues at its current rate, then as many as 1,182 people a year, especially the elderly and children, could die from heat-related causes in Los Angeles by the year 2099, compared to 165 a year currently.
Other effects include lengthening the heat-wave season from 115 days to 204 days and raising the average temperature by 10 degrees, or even 15 degrees, in summer.
"The 7-to-10-degree range (increase) is enough to make many coastal cities feel like inland cities do today," said Katharine Hayhoe, the study's lead author. "And at the higher end of the range, with 15-degree Fahrenheit change in summer, that's enough to make summer in many of California's inland cities feel like Death Valley does today."
The scientists say their study points to a clear need for voluntary energy conservation, as well as policies that encourage conservation and the development of more energy-efficient technologies.
While this study builds upon a large volume of previous research, some scientists remain skeptical of global warming theories.
Kenneth Green, an adjunct scholar at the Santa Monica-based Reason Public Policy Institute, said most studies of global warming oversimplify the highly complex global climate to the point where the data is nearly useless.
"The bottom line is, we have an incredibly small amount of data about the climate," said Green, who is also chief scientist at the Fraser Institute, a Canadian free-market think tank.
"It's spotty around the world. It's of varying -- not usually good -- quality and it has to be pinched, prodded, kneaded and tortured until it says something."
He said more research is needed before society uses its precious resources to fight global warming when it could use those same resources to, for example, fight disease.
But Bill Patzert, a climate expert at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, who was not involved in the study, said its authors are some of the top experts in the world and he agrees with their conclusions.
In Los Angeles, for example, Patzert said, the average temperature has increased by 5 degrees over the past century. The increase is most severe at night, when temperatures have risen by 7 degrees, compared to only 3 degrees during the day.
Warming is caused not only by global trends, he noted. California's development and population explosions over the last 100 years, with its accompanying increase in asphalt and decrease in shade trees, has contributed to a greater absorption of heat by the ground throughout the state.
"What they're doing is giving us a heads-up, a view of the canary in the coal mine here," Patzert said. "Scientifically, you'd be hard-pressed to find anybody who disagrees with these guys who has any credentials at all.
"As far as L.A., what does it mean? It means go into the air-conditioning business."
Harrison Sheppard, (916) 446-6723 harrison.sheppard@dailynews.com
What a relief - unfortunately I have to go there next week, and I was worried that it might happen sooner. I will note that I must be back by the end of the century. *g
There it is. The real cause. Yet there is no plan to deal with this.
Good. Maybe a lot of the libretards out there will experience severe brain boil and be comatose in Nov. Wait, they already ARE comatose...
BURN BABY BURN!!
Sounds like the effect of the city's buildings and paving being a huge heat sink. As the mass of the buildings and paving increase, the temperature increases at night, because the heat collected during the day is released into the cooler night air.
Patzert conveniently did not mention the temperature in the surrounding less-densely built areas.
"... increase in asphalt and decrease in shade trees..."
Hells bells, I have a 20ac nursery with 40,000 trees and shrubs. I'll sell and install all the darned greenery they need. Just ask, folks in LA-LA Land! And be prepared to write a big check.
This happened in Paris last year. 15,000 dead as I recall. I wonder why it'll take so long to reach LA.
I have heard that Atlanta is requireing heat-reflective roofing for new and repaired roofing to help reduce heat absorption.
Most of LA is a desert and if the illegals were to be shipped out there would be plenty of water.
But, it's a dry heat.
Stop flying to Oregon for windsurfing and haircuts.
I like your attitude.
LA needs more "shade" trees. Palm trees just don't make it.
Of course trees take water, and there is not enough of that.
By the way, what is behind your selection of "7.62 x 51 mm"?
That's my AR-10's NATO round designation; aka .308cal.
http://www.armalite.com/sales/catalog/rifles/ar10a4_spr.htm
Tooo coool.
"LA needs more "shade" trees. Palm trees just don't make it.
Of course trees take water, and there is not enough of that."
The world is 2/3 water. Someone just needs to figure out how to desalinate sea water quickly and cheaply, and they'll be a trillionaire.
True.
Cheaply is a problem. But if we could just get around the "Greens", and unleash Nuclear power, we could have all the desalinated water that we wanted.
A desalination plant is currently being constructed in Long Beach.
Gads why is Yahoo posting an identical story on this just today?? More media spread junk science.
The sky is falling, the sky is falling!!
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