He isn't.
Pay no attention to what they are saying - watch what the candidates are doing - they have internal polling that says it all.
They were wrong in 2000, they were wrong in 2002 (which, by the way, was a huge blowout for us), and they are wrong about 2004.
Here in FL they kept talking about how close McBride was to Jeb in 2002.
In my county, which is considered a bellwether county (Pasco in FL) I cannot remember ONE democrat that one. I think people here were furious over Gore's little games.