Good for you, chmst.
There are TWO problems with your probative analysis.
First, the HUP is (when ignoring the delta-p delta-x form)
delta E * delta t ~ h/(2*pi)
That is, they are uncertainties of the value and not absolute value.
Please note that you switch the two in your 1st through 3rd equations.
Second, in cold fusion there are substantial fugacities
attained using locally large electric field intensities
and the impact of the loaded lattice
which your equations 4 (and others) ignore.
On the other hand, the negativists have
much company in being unable to perceive humanities' creativity.
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
[Ken Olson, Chairman and founder Digital Equipment Corp., 1977]
"640K ought to be enough for anybody."
[Bill Gates, 1981]
Yes, delta E & delta t are uncertainties but I was only interested in the maximum possible values. Many people think that the HUP will only show what can be observed but it can also be used to show what is and isn't possible under given conditions. HUP is often used in this manner in studies of new trans-uranic elements.
As to part two of your post, yup I left stuff out. It's been years since I looked at it last and I didn't find any thing that substantially altered the "back of the envelope" calculations. X is still much larger than x.
That is not to say cold fusion as a whole is impossible, for instance there is muon catalyzed fusion that would occur at much more reasonable temperatures. I would also recommend looking at the Tesla table top fusion experiments although I classify that as hot fusion myself.