Invade a nuclear armed Muslim country?
Work for the overthrow of Musharraf or put a bullet in his head? Then who's to follow?
Musharraf is certainly duplicitious, but he's the best option for now. As I said, the situation is always fluid, but, to me, our best option is smile and pat him on the back, while working to build up our own independent intelligence infrastructure in the country, in preparation for his eventual and inevitable downfall. I don't think he'll even last as long as we'd like to get that job done.
Pakistan's a bomb that this Administration inherited. It's going to be a tricky one to diffuse. Bush can't just close his eyes and start snipping wires.
That seems to be where the relationship stands for now. You seem to think we should be doing something else at this time, but what? Invade a nuclear armed Muslim country? Work for the overthrow of Musharraf or put a bullet in his head? Then who's to follow?
What should we do? That's a good question. Far too often the issue boils down to - "We cannot invade Pakistan - so let's just do our best by working with Musharraf." I fully agree that invading Pakistan or threatening them militarily is counterproductive.
But boy do we have other levers to push. Firstly it is all about diplomacy and global standing for Pakistan's leaders as it is for every tinpot dictator. The only thing Musharraf fears more than losing his job is loss of face. Why do you think Musharraf invaded Waziristan - because we asked him nicely? Nope. Because we threatened to go public with his role in the nuclear scandal. Similarly, we must keep telling Musharraf publicly that these camps still exist and the terror infrastrucutre still survives in Pakistan.
Secondly, use our massive economic leverage with Pakistan. The Pakistan economy will collapse in weeks if we withdraw support. They were on the verge of default on September 14, 2001. You can say that 9/11 happened at a very propitious time for them. We have helped Pakistan reschedule $12 billion in loans with the Paris club and have written off 50% of their debt to us. Our aid to them is equivalent to their annual defense budget. Without our good influence, their "arrangements" with IMF, ADB, and the World Bank may be "rearranged." Japan and the EU are generous to Pakistan thanks to our influence. Given this, we must tell Musharraf to tell us when he will implement the promises he made in 2002 on Madrassa reforms and jihadi infrastructure. He promised to do so by March 2002 but reneged. If he reneges again, let's just withhold payments blaming Congress or our bureaucracy - "You know Pervez, the aid file takes a bit of time to move in Washington, just like your Madrassa reform package in Islamabad."
We must do everything we can to encourage the non-Islamist Pak politicians. These guys have nothing against us except that we support their tormentor Musharraf without question.
WE must stop effusively praising Musharraf and be more circumspect.
This would be a good start, IMO
The answer to this question is simple. Were Musharraf to be killed, the following things will likely happen in Pakistan: