[ableChair]

Lets wait until Gallup and IBD have their new polls out later next week -

Agreed, and my primary point in all this, but I don't see why my post confused you. You keep asserting that the Reps are oversampled. Just because they used more Reps than Dems does not necessarily mean Reps were oversampled. It's good that you like facts, so let me try to explain it with a specific example, as opposed to a general thesis. Suppose Reps lie about their choice more often than Dems - JUST SUPPOSE - and suppose that Newsweek KNOWS this from historical data. Lets also suppose Newsweek KNOWS what value to ascribe to this dishonesty phenomenon. Then it is NOT the case that they have oversampled JUST because they called more Reps. Remember, that's just one example. There could be any number of factors like that. But the point is that YOU don't know what they are, Newsweek does. So you can't legitimately do what you're trying to do, that is, make assumptions without all the relevant information. By delving into the internals of something you really know nothing about you're just tripping over yourself.

[POA2]

Agreed, and my primary point in all this, but I don't see why my post confused you. You keep asserting that the Reps are oversampled. Just because they used more Reps than Dems does not necessarily mean Reps were oversampled. It's good that you like facts, so let me try to explain it with a specific example, as opposed to a general thesis. Suppose Reps lie about their choice more often than Dems - JUST SUPPOSE - and suppose that Newsweek KNOWS this from historical data. Lets also suppose Newsweek KNOWS what value to ascribe to this dishonesty phenomenon. Then it is NOT the case that they have oversampled JUST because they called more Reps. Remember, that's just one example. There could be any number of factors like that. But the point is that YOU don't know what they are, Newsweek does. So you can't legitimately do what you're trying to do, that is, make assumptions without all the relevant information. By delving into the internals of something you really know nothing about you're just tripping over yourself.

I don't agree with your premise here at all - First off, the fact is NewsWeek has a "history" that needs to be looked at - You cannot just look at the this Newsweek poll in a vacuum - Historically NewsWeek polls are junk - They jump all over the place for whatever purpose NewsWeek wants them to serve -

Secondly I would offer you some words of wisdom from Thomas Sowell (brilliant man) - "there is nothing more complex then avoiding the obvious" -

And that is exactly what you are trying to do here - The obvious fact is Republicans we're well oversampled and Dem's were well UNdersampled in the latest NewsWeek poll - This is what clearly brought about the 11pt lead for GWB! -

If a more accurate weigthing was applied GWB would not have an 11pt lead - It would be closer to 5pt - (that is the facts) -

I don't care what agenda or purpose NewsWeek wants to have for under or over sampling - facts remain facts -

ANd lastly we need to wait until both IBD and Gallup come out with polls to see where this race stands.