[ableChair]

The Newsweek poll is closer to RASS if you look at the proper weightings - The only reason the Newsweek poll shows such a large lead is do to the over-sampling of REP's -

I don't think we have enough information yet to conclude that for two reasons:
The Time poll mirrors the newsweek poll; so you have to establish that something is wrong with BOTH of those polls.
Secondly, whether or not they polled more Reps than Dems is irrelevant unless we know the proportion of Reps and Dems who will be voting on Nov 2; i.e. they need not be equal.

[POA2]

I don't think we have enough information yet to conclude that for two reasons: The Time poll mirrors the newsweek poll; so you have to establish that something is wrong with BOTH of those polls. Secondly, whether or not they polled more Reps than Dems is irrelevant unless we know the proportion of Reps and Dems who will be voting on Nov 2; i.e. they need not be equal.

Well, I think the point here is that we do know that both the NewsWeek poll and the Times/CNN poll oversampled Rep's compared to their previous polls.....and also compared to typical voter breakdown on past elections days -

We also know though that the MO is on our side - and that it appears if you use a "normal" voter break-down that GWB is leading by 5pts or perhaps a little more -

The Newsweek breakdown was 37D-31R (or close to that a fellow freeper dealing with polls showed) - This is WAY oversampled in favor of Rep's - (we can't deny this) - a consistent breakdown on the national level is right around 39D-35R (or maybe 36R) -

We have to be willing to admit that - and still break polls down that show GWB in the lead with proper weightings -

The Rass poll seems a little heavy for Dem's....but the Newsweek poll is definitely heavy for Rep's -