Posted on 09/05/2004 12:38:11 PM PDT by Bungarian
Three weeks ago, at his post-Convention peak, Kerry was ahead by nearly three percentage points in our weekly tracking update. This week, Bush is ahead by nearly three points. The race for the White House, while still very close, is now the President's to lose.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/The%20Bush%20Bounce.htm
Apparently he's the only pollster who currently sees it as close.
But somehow I think he may be backed up by the L.A. Times and Gallup.
The perception of close is good, it keeps people working and determined and focused!
2 months is a long time and a lot could happen, but this is an awesome development. I can hear the gnashing of teeth from my liberal neighbors clear across the street.
President Bush needs to, and I am confident that he will, keep on attacking John Kerry's record and show why he's the man to lead us in the War on Terror. He can't afford to lighten up. If he keeps campagining at full speed, I am confident he will not only get elected on November 2, but also come into office with a substantially large mandate.
"During the Republican Convention week, the President's numbers improved across the board. He took the lead in the 16-Battleground States"
This is a major advantage.
Rasmussen basically suxs
Newsweak had 7 percent more pubs
So it's hard to get a fix
Work like Bush is 10 down!!!!!! Take nothing for granted
Hopefully, liberals will think Kerry is a foregone loser, and vote their conscience by voting for Nader!
Even on the economy, 60% approve of Bush's handling of it.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Economy_Rating.htm
Rasmussen is hard to gauge. His tracking poll has been remarkably stable for any campaign, most particularly this one. A little too stable, I think. Other polls seem to indicate much larger swings. For whatever reason it takes a lot to budge Rasumssen's polls at all.
State by state is what matters.
And lest anyone forget, Bush was expected to be 3-5% ahead of Gore in the polls the last week of Campaign 2000. Do not rest.
They don't poll dead people.
They don't poll illegal immigrants.
They don't poll felons.
They don't poll mental health facilities.
Portions of the Democrat "base" have yet to weigh in like they will on Election Day.
The President still has to make it through Susan Estrick and her smear machine. The Dems are trying to get the religious right to stay home like they did the last election. The Dems smear machine will also be helped by the MSM starting tonight with 60 Minutes. If we sit back, we still can lose. Don't forget, the President has to win by a wide margin to fight against the voter fraud in the big cities.
At tradesports.com, Bush hit OVER 60!!!!!!!!
Bush: 60.3/60.5
Kerry 39.8/40
http://www.tradesports.com/
At the end of the Rasmussen report was this very interesting ditty:
The Republican National Convention focused heavily on America's role in the world. An earlier Rasmussen Reports survey found that just 21% view the United Nations as our ally while 16% believe the UN is an enemy of the U.S. Assessments of France are even bleaker.
Progress is being made.
"Uh, Wolf, this is Judy at CNN Election HQ. We're double-checking our computers, but there doesn't seem to be a mistake.
"There apparently was a huge surge of discontented liberals who decided to vote their conscience and support Nader, and to the best of our knowledge, and I know this sounds incredible, but it appears that John Kerry has received, well, I don't know how to put this . . . no votes!"
News keeps getting better and better, tee hee.
The question is, were those people responding to Gulianni, McCain, Zell Miller, Arnold or the President, another key speaker or all of them combined. Example, Gulianni and Arnold may have caused the swing. Or it could have been the President or it could have been the impact of all the major speakers.
We'll have a much better picture of where this race stands next week when Gallup, FoxNews and IBD release their polls.
I have more faith in Rasmussen than Time and Newsweek. I was hoping it would be a bigger bump. Nevertheless, we have to remain vigilant anyway.
August 29, 2004--In the latest Rasmussen Reports full week's polling sample, President George W. Bush has opened up his largest lead of the year. For the week ending Thursday, September 2, Bush has 48.5% of the vote and Kerry has 45.7%.
This marks the 32nd full week of polling since Kerry became the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Over the full 32 week period, Bush has been ahead of Kerry by at least one point ten times (but this is the first time since June 10). Bush's full week lead of 2.8 percentage points is his biggest of the year.
-SNIP-
Kerry has been ahead by at least a point for eight of the 32 weeks. This week's 45.7% support for Kerry is his lowest since announcing John Edwards as his running mate.
- SNIP-
At Rasmussen Reports, we interview 1,000 Likely Voters every single night. Our daily tracking poll is based upon three-days worth of interviews--3,000 Likely Voters. Our weekly survey, however, is based upon interviews with 7,000 Likely Voters spread equally over each night of the week. This reduces the random variation that can come from smaller sample sizes and polling on different days of the week.
-SNIP-
Prior to this week's total of 48.5%, President George W. Bush has attracted between 44.1% and 46.7% of the vote for every one of the 32 weekly summaries.
For the prior thirty-one weeks, Senator John F. Kerry has attracted between 44.1% and 48.3% of the vote.
-SNIP-
It is important to note that on individual days, our tracking poll found Kerry leading by as much as six points. During the same time period, we also found President Bush up by as many as five points on a daily basis.
--------------------------------
Other results regarding the election:
Daily tracking poll: Bush 47.6 Kerry 46.4
President Bush Job Approval 53
Electoral College Bush 213 - Kerry 207
Updated Weekly
Bush Favorable 54 Unfavorable 45
Kerry Favorable 50 Unfavorable 47
Battleground States Bush 48 Kerry 45
Right Track? Right 44 Wrong 52
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 49 Kerry 38
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 52 Kerry 42
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 49 Kerry 45
Winning the War on Terror US 50 Terrorists 26<
How is Bush handling Iraq Ex/Good 46 Poor 41
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 43 Poor 39
The daily numbers are down today for Bush. This has been discussed on a previous thread. The reasons may be a 1)true reflection of the opinion 2) a statistical outlier (see above where Ras. says that the variations day by day have sometimes been quite large) 3) difficulties to get a correct sample during weekends and holidays etc.
Note however, that the GW Bush is up in all the questions except possibly the direction of the country (but as some Freepers have written, they feel the country is headed in the wrong direction - and that's why they will vote for Bush - so the answers to that question may be a bit difficult to interpret).
In other words: All the internals are up for the president!
Newsweek's sample was only 17% minorities too. I still think the Pres is up 10-15 though. Looks like it's in the bag.
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