Posted on 09/06/2004 9:10:11 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
SACRAMENTO -- While pundits are all but calling the presidential and U.S. Senate races in California, the potentially far-reach-
ing effects of Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's popularity -- spurred by the GOP convention -- are fueling fierce election battles.
Schwarzenegger may score weighty victories in the Nov. 2 general election on propositions he backs or opposes, analysts say, but probably even more importantly, additional Republicans could ride his political coattails into a Legislature he says has far too many "girlie-men" Democrats.
Pollsters say the governor's popularity has soared while the Legislature's has sunk.
"Schwarzenegger is a unique phenomenon in a state where both Republican and Democratic officials are viewed in a negative light," said poll director Mark Baldassare of the San Francisco-based Public Policy Institute of California.
A shift toward the right in the Legislature, which Democrats now dominate, would bolster the power of the Central Valley and outlying areas of Southern California while further isolating the city of Los Angeles and the Bay Area as liberal bastions.
But even those two Democratic-dominated pockets, as populous as they are, often clash over northern versus southern issues.
Geographic differences, for instance, helped force the governor and lawmakers into a deadlock over how to pay for multibillion-dollar cost overruns on Bay Bridge work. That issue, and others, such as allowing an Indian gambling mega-casino in the East Bay, may ride partially on the outcome of legislative elections.
The governor is targeting at least nine Assembly Democrats for defeat, including one at the ever-more GOP leaning edge of the Bay Area.
Incumbent Republican Assemblyman Guy Houston of Livermore, the Bay Area legislative delegation's sole GOP member, is favored to retain his seat and Republican strategists are going after the 17th District seat currently held by Democratic Assemblywoman Barbara Matthews of Tracy.
"We are very pleased to have the endorsement of the governor," said Nellie McGarry, the GOP candidate in the 17th District, which includes part of San Joaquin County. "He needs legislators who can work with him, not against him, and his support of my candidacy sends a strong message that it is time to end politics as usual."
McGarry campaign consultant Dave Gilliard said the "recall of (former Democratic Gov.) Gray Davis and the election of Gov. Schwarzenegger has changed the political landscape in the 17th District."
"Voters in the Central Valley want representatives who will work side-by-side with the governor to fix California and the governor's strong support for Nellie can be the deciding factor in this race."
Democratic strategists counter that the endorsement will mean little if it isn't backed up with actual campaign appearances by the governor and campaign contributions.
Moreover, the incumbent and strategists say, voters in the district are too smart to be swayed by personality.
Though Schwarzenegger hasn't been forthcoming on his plans, his aides said he is on pace to raise about $9 million to promote his agenda and fight two gambling initiatives on the ballot.
The bloated ballot ranges from the presidential and U.S. Senate races, to congressional, legislative and local contests and measures, but Democratic challenger John Kerry is decisively leading President George W. Bush in California, as is U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, over GOP challenger Bill Jones.
Among myriad statewide ballot propositions are two gambling initiatives that Schwarzenegger hopes to defeat:
Proposition 68, which would allow slot machines at card clubs and racetracks, ending Indian tribes' monopoly on Las Vegas-style gambling in California.
Proposition 70, which would permit casinos of unlimited size on tribal land.
The measures would undermine gambling pacts the governor has signed with tribes in an effort to increase the deficit-ridden state's take of the proceeds.
With the popularity and visibility of the governor looming large as a factor in the election, analysts pointed to statistics, more than reactions, following the Republican National Convention.
Comments were rather predictable along party lines, with Republicans buoyed and Democrats confounded, at best.
But Schwarzenegger's Tuesday night speech triggered a solid television ratings boost to the convention.
The second day of the GOP convention, when the governor delivered a prime-time speech, drew an estimated 15.3 combined rating on the major network and cable television channels.
That's compared to the 14.3 combined rating -- with each point equaling about 1 million households -- that prime-time coverage of the Democratic National Convention averaged in July.
Even in the heavily Democratic Bay Area, the Republicans still drew a large audience.
Let the 'games' begin! ;-)
Geez, pray they don't head for Nevada! Pahrump is the latest town to suffer Kali infestation.
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