Posted on 09/08/2004 11:30:04 AM PDT by xsysmgr
Most expect that with Congress back in Washington, partisan rancor in the U.S. Senate is about to reach a new apex. With a looming October 1 deadline to complete 12 of the 13 remaining appropriations bills, and a host of other unfinished business — ranging from welfare reform to extending expiring tax cuts to acting on the 9/11 Commission's recommendations — backlogged on the calendar (not to mention the escalating campaign-driven tensions), the institution the Founders designed to cool the passions of the moment may need a blowtorch to thaw frigid relations between the two parties.
True, Democrats already put the brakes on most initiatives for the past two years — ranging from tort and welfare reform to higher-education reauthorization to a host of judicial and executive appointments, to name a few. They've given the green light to only the most essential legislation. Yet September promises an even more vigorous crackdown by the obstruction police in the Senate. "The last thing the Democrats want a few weeks before the election are a bunch of Rose Garden signing ceremonies showing Republicans can really get things done," a White House aide told me. And despite their "minority" status, Senate rules provide Democrats with the tools to do just that.
"The Senate is an institution that exemplifies 21st-century politics but operates under 18th-century rules," a former senior GOP leadership aide told me. And when lawmakers return after the August break, most expect the Democrats to use those rules to block just about everything Republicans try to bring up.
But playing in the Democrats' obstructionist orchestra is not without risk. Some voters find the legislative dissonance petty and partisan — and could decide to oust lawmakers who make that kind of music.
So here is an interesting Senate September subplot to watch. Republicans will raise the decibel level about obstructionism, while Democrats will try to find a balance between denying GOP victories while still appearing cooperative.
But who wins this battle depends in part on who really cares about obstructionism in the Senate. Recent polling data from the American Survey, gathered August 19-22 (800 registered voters, margin of error 3.5 percent), sheds some light on this issue — exposing expected, as well as surprising, vulnerabilities for the Democrats.
Overall, a slight majority (54 percent) believe "Democrats engage in obstructionism in the Senate," while 40 percent think they want to "work with Republicans." Voters in each party hold expected attitudes toward the current political environment in the Senate. For example, 79 percent of Republicans think Senate Democrats engaged in obstruction, while only 34 percent of Democrats held that view — not a particularly surprising result.
Independent voters' views are somewhere in the middle. Yet it should trouble Democrats that a majority of these swing voters believe Democrats are engaged in obstruction. 53 percent of independents take that view compared to only 40 percent who say Democrats want to "work with Republicans."
Gender differences on "obstruction" are even more dramatic. Women are equally divided on the question of Democrats' behavior in the Senate, while men believe Democrats are engaged in obstruction by almost a 2-1 margin (60 percent say Democrats want to obstruct Republicans; 36 percent say Democrats want to work with Republicans).
Most political observers believe ten Senate seats could potentially change hands this November. Five are open seats currently held by Democrats (North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and Louisiana). Three others are open seats currently held by Republicans (Colorado, Illinois, and Oklahoma). The two remaining toss-up races are held by incumbents, Republican Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota.
Mathematically, Republicans could gain a maximum of six net seats — boosting their total to 57-43 — if they win all these open seats, defeat Senator Daschle, and Senator Murkowski wins. Democrats could win a maximum of four and establish a 53-47 majority if they hold all five open seats, win the three GOP opens, defeat Senator Murkowski, and if the voters of South Dakota return Senator Daschle.
The battle for majority control of the Senate will come down to these ten contests. With the partisan battle lines and attitudes toward obstructionism already drawn among Democrats and Republicans, perceptions of independent voters in these states will be critical.
Each party will choreograph its own version of this September subplot. Democrats will try to find a balance between obstruction and cooperation. Republicans will try to make the case that Democrats have moved beyond protecting minority rights and are now engaged in an unreasonable and unprecedented level of obstruction. At this point, it appears Republicans have some fertile ground to make this case among independent voters, and especially among men. Women will require a little more convincing. Yet given the stakes involved and the closeness of some of the contests, whichever party does a better job making its case will be the next Senate majority.
— Gary Andres is vice chairman of research and policy at the Dutko Group Companies and a frequent NRO contributor.
Send them tax cuts, marraige protection, and defense apropriation bills and either get what you want or get them on record. Then run ads.
Obstructionism didn't work out to well for the RATs in the 2002 Senate races.
bttt
No, it was because they weren't MEAN enough.< sarcasm on >
(They even appear to believe their own BS)
Is little Tommy D still on the ropes in SD??
Defense approps might go through but defense authorization is viewed as dead until after the elections. Marriage and tax cuts won't make it to the floor until October if then. They might get flag burning raised on the floor if they are lucky. (They being the leadership of the Senate)
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