Hurricane Ivan - 9/10 thread - 5am update predicts Jamaica tonight, western Florida Monday night(?)

000 WTNT44 KNHC 100813 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW 929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/100820.shtml?

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100834
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2004

...POWERFUL IVAN HEADS TOWARD JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM
MATANZAS EASTWARD. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
360 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN TO NEAR
JAMAICA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AND IVAN COULD BECOME
EVEN STRONGER AS IT NEARS JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...15.9 N... 74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

This is terrible news for bush they do the labor dept survey next week if millions of floridians are evacuated it will crush the jobs report and that is the last jobs report for the election and kerry will jump on it.

Being a Floridian, I can tell you that I could hardly imagine them holding a "jobs report" against Bush down here. I'm astounded at the level of government inititiative being taken to ensure people are informed and well prepared for the two, now three natural disaster that have and will likely impact Florida this year. I believe that while many will face hardships, they will appreciate being alive come November. That sort of thinking tends to favor Bush.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.