Posted on 09/12/2004 10:54:51 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 43a
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 13, 2004
...Category five Hurricane Ivan threatens western Cuba...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to progreso. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of this extremely dangerous hurricane.
At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 19.9 north...longitude 83.5 west or about 160 miles... 255 km...southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr... and a turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center will pass near or over extreme western Cuba this evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km.
An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 920 mb...27.17 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in western Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life- threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 2 am EDT position...19.9 N... 83.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 920 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Lawrence
Glad I checked bump
The Weather Channel lady was just saying that they're starting to see the beginnings of that northerly turn they've been forecasting. I still think Panama City - as a Category 4!
Thanks for the links, images, answers, and insights on both threads. Please continue to contribute your thoughts as this goes on!
New to Houston (and Texas).
What are the chances that we will get hit? Should we prepare in any way?
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Satellite Loops
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History says Ivan may be headed to Mexico then Texas.
| Gulf of Mexico NWS Area Forecast Discussions |
| Mobile, Alabama : Area Forecast Discussion |
| New Orleans, Lousiana : Area Forecast Discussion |
| Tallahassee, Florida : Area Forecast Discussion |
tween Cameron and Pensacola....most likely MS gulf coast to Grande Isle/Golden Meadow/Bayou LaFourche
Your graphic indicates 'history' is split 50/50, with three tracks going to Mexico/Texas and three turning north to the Panhandle/Louisiana.
This was the history of storms similar to Charley, history is only a good guide when synoptic patterns match what you happen to be looking at in real time.
Unless Ivan slips under the week trough to his north, he will not hit Texas. I'd put the chance of a TX landfall around 5%, that will be lowered to 0% in another 12-24 hours if things play out as they should.
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