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Iowa Electronic Markets Breaking Hard for Bush
Iowa Electronic Markets ^
| 9/14/2004
Posted on 09/14/2004 12:22:03 PM PDT by mlbford2
Kerry reaching terminal velocity freefall
TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: asswhoopn
1
posted on
09/14/2004 12:22:04 PM PDT
by
mlbford2
To: mlbford2
OHHHHHH, YEAH. That feels good.
To: mlbford2
3
posted on
09/14/2004 12:24:24 PM PDT
by
BunnySlippers
("F" Stands for FLIP-FLOP ...)
To: mlbford2
Hilarious, because Iowa is responsible for Kerry's candidacy in the first place.
4
posted on
09/14/2004 12:24:26 PM PDT
by
Terpfen
(Liberals want "anyone but Bush." Tell them you're voting for Ashcroft. Watch them cringe.)
To: mlbford2
5
posted on
09/14/2004 12:24:33 PM PDT
by
AxelPaulsenJr
(Excellence In Posting Since 1999)
To: mlbford2
Kerry reaching terminal velocity freefall That's funny.....
6
posted on
09/14/2004 12:27:52 PM PDT
by
narby
(What's the provenance, Dan?)
To: mlbford2
This is the graph of the tradesports.com contract
on reelection of President Bush, beginning in
January 200
3. Being a British market, the dates
are expressed as DD-MM.
7
posted on
09/14/2004 12:28:15 PM PDT
by
Petronski
(With what? Spitballs!?!)
To: mlbford2
8
posted on
09/14/2004 12:32:21 PM PDT
by
martin_fierro
(Too genteel for my own damn good.)
To: Darth Reagan
9
posted on
09/14/2004 12:33:07 PM PDT
by
marblehead17
(I love it when a plan comes together.)
To: mlbford2
I don't get it. What is this graph? thnx
10
posted on
09/14/2004 12:37:55 PM PDT
by
madison46
(Bandwagon was full when it left the gate - I hope it remains too full for frogs & co.)
To: madison46
I don't get it. What is this graph?
The graph shows prices for Bush and Kerry on the Iowa electronic market. The market is a real money market where the share of the winner pays of $1.00. Historically, the price on the market right before the election has been closer to the actual results than any poll.
The current prices to buy and sell are
Symbol Bid Ask
DEM04 0.426 0.429
REP04 0.572 0.588
Using the mid point of the price spread, the current forecast is Bush 58% Kerry 42.7 (if you could sell them both for more than 100, you lock in a profit).
To: madison46
Both Iowa electronic markets and Tradesports are futures markets where people can bet on outcomes. If you knew for certain that you would get a dollar on an outcome, it's fair price would be $1.00. If Bush shows at 60 cents, that mean that the consensus of investor/bettors are evaluating his chances at 60% (and putting up money).
12
posted on
09/14/2004 12:47:29 PM PDT
by
Stirner
To: mlbford2
I think he's reached it:
V = sqrt ( (2 * W) / (Cd * r * A) )
13
posted on
09/14/2004 12:51:37 PM PDT
by
vrwinger
(Tagline? I don't need no stinkin' TAGLINE!)
To: Petronski
I thought TradeSports was an Irish market. Ye may find yerself in a wee spot of trouble callin' them Brits.
To: PeoplesRepublicOfWashington
Okay. I'll get my body armor (worn under my silk pajamas, of course).
15
posted on
09/14/2004 12:57:31 PM PDT
by
Petronski
(With what? Spitballs!?!)
To: Stirner; lunatic12
16
posted on
09/14/2004 12:59:45 PM PDT
by
madison46
(Bandwagon was full when it left the gate - I hope it remains too full for frogs & co.)
To: vrwinger
V = sqt((2*Dubya) / (Rather * SBVFT * VVAK))
17
posted on
09/14/2004 1:11:20 PM PDT
by
Chode
(American Hedonist ©®)
To: Terpfen
Hilarious, because Iowa is responsible for Kerry's candidacy in the first place. Buyer's remorse.
18
posted on
09/14/2004 1:20:57 PM PDT
by
tbpiper
To: mlbford2
oooooh! ... WOW ... hehehe
19
posted on
09/15/2004 11:04:46 AM PDT
by
miltonim
(Fight those who do not believe in Allah. - Koran, Surah IX: 29)
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