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IT Jobs Chill
Computerworld ^ | September 13, 2004 | Frank Hayes

Posted on 09/15/2004 10:00:28 AM PDT by Mini-14

SEPTEMBER 13, 2004 - The annual IT workforce study is out from the Information Technology Association of America. And for once, it's genuinely useful. Gone is the rah-rah boosterism of years past. Gone are the million-new-jobs estimates that never came true and the predictions that most new IT jobs would go wanting because there just weren't enough U.S. IT people to fill them.

Instead, it's a sober assessment stuffed with information of value to anyone hiring or looking for work in corporate IT. Much of that information is clearly presented in the report, which you can get at www.itaa.org/workforce/studies/04wfstudy.pdf.

And then there's the stuff that's hidden between the lines.

Officially, the report's executive summary says the U.S. IT workforce grew about 2% between March 2003 and March 2004 -- from 10.3 million to 10.5 million IT workers. Another 230,000 IT jobs should be created by next spring. Technical support, networking and programming are the areas that account for the most new jobs, and the biggest increases were in the Northeast.

But digging deeper -- and then slicing and dicing the numbers -- yields a somewhat different story for corporate IT people. Add in some information the ITAA isn't anxious to admit, and the picture isn't pretty.

How many new IT jobs? According to the hiring managers surveyed, 230,000 by spring 2005. But historically, the people the ITAA polls are, to put it kindly, optimistic. Each year, they typically predict they'll hire twice to four times as many people as the following year's survey indicates they actually did hire. So a prediction of 230,000 new IT jobs suggests there will really be 100,000 new IT jobs -- maybe less.

Where? The highest IT job growth by percentage was in the Northeast, sure enough. But the largest number of new IT jobs last year was actually in the South, the region that now leads the nation, with more than 3 million IT jobs. The West actually lost 20,000 IT jobs from 2003 to 2004.

What kind of employers? A whopping 77% of corporate IT jobs are at companies with fewer than 100 employees. Those companies also say they value employee loyalty far more than larger companies.

What kinds of jobs? Security jobs in networking and databases will be hot. Tech support will be the largest category of new jobs, about 30% of the total; last year, it represented nearly half of all new IT jobs. Web development and the "digital media" category -- the people who create graphics, text, sound and animation for software -- are growing slowly.

But here's where it gets ugly for corporate IT workers. Programmers are in trouble: 28,000 jobs lost last year, with only 29,000 new jobs expected next year by the most optimistic estimates. Tech writing is flat. Enterprise systems integration is barely showing a pulse.

In other words, if you're in operations, bone up on security and you may find a job. But if you're looking for work developing traditional corporate IT systems, you're toast.

What qualifications? Forget certifications -- for a new job, you need four years of college and at least a year of experience, all directly related to the job. Certification and on-the-job training are good for promotions, though.

What else? Interpersonal skills are what roughly half of all companies of all sizes rate as most important among "soft" skills -- more than project management, team building, or oral and written communications.

All this may not be comforting. No rah-rah, no pipe dreams, just chilly reality. That's not what we expect from the industry cheerleaders at the ITAA. But for delivering the cold, hard goods, they deserve our thanks -- just this once.

Frank Hayes, Computerworld's senior news columnist, has covered IT for more than 20 years. Contact him at frank_hayes@computerworld.com.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: employment; h1b; jobs; l1; unemployment
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To: dirtboy
And as a project manager I want to thank you for taking all those mind-numbing calls, writing all those requests and specs, and doing all those requests so I don't have to.

Sincerely,
Non-Sequitur, PMP

21 posted on 09/15/2004 11:24:41 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur (Jefferson Davis - the first 'selected, not elected' president.)
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To: dirtboy

Cool. Thanks.

A couple of follow-up questions...

1. Do the developers not communicate directly with the clients? You seem to be the go-between.
2. What do you mean by "monitoring of operations"?
3. What's the relationship between you and the project manager when working on a project?
4. Do you include QA requirements in the functional spec?
5. What do you mean by "ad hoc data requests"?


22 posted on 09/15/2004 11:29:16 AM PDT by nsc68
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To: nsc68
1. Do the developers not communicate directly with the clients?

Most of the times, no, unless you can find one with a clean shirt and no food in his teeth.

You seem to be the go-between.

I gather requirements and go over them with the development lead and the programmer.

2. What do you mean by "monitoring of operations"?

Making sure that the systems are operated properly and adhere to Service Level Agreements, and raise some whup-ass when they don't. I also can act as a backup for operations and do troubleshooting.

3. What's the relationship between you and the project manager when working on a project?

I yell "I need more power, Scotty!" and he yells "You cannot change the laws of physics, Captain!"

4. Do you include QA requirements in the functional spec?

Not typically. I've also been a QA Lead, and generally the QA person is tasked with tracing requirements through the spec and into the testing methodology.

5. What do you mean by "ad hoc data requests"?

Typically these are counts queried off the database that are not part of the standard report set.

23 posted on 09/15/2004 11:34:24 AM PDT by dirtboy (Kerry could have left 'Nam within a week if Purple Hearts were awarded for shots to the foot.)
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To: Non-Sequitur
And as a project manager I want to thank you for taking all those mind-numbing calls, writing all those requests and specs, and doing all those requests so I don't have to.

Just for that, I'm gonna quit pushing back against the client when they want to move up the deadlines...

24 posted on 09/15/2004 11:36:03 AM PDT by dirtboy (Kerry could have left 'Nam within a week if Purple Hearts were awarded for shots to the foot.)
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To: nsc68
What's the relationship between you and the project manager when working on a project?

Kind of like that between Cain and Master Po.

25 posted on 09/15/2004 11:42:27 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur (Jefferson Davis - the first 'selected, not elected' president.)
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To: dirtboy
Just for that, I'm gonna quit pushing back against the client when they want to move up the deadlines...

No you won't. We're the big picture people. We need the input. And while we're at it, have you completed that documentation yet?

26 posted on 09/15/2004 11:43:34 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur (Jefferson Davis - the first 'selected, not elected' president.)
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To: nsc68
Do the developers not communicate directly with the clients? You seem to be the go-between.

Language difficulties aside, I have yet to meet a developer who wants to have any client contact whatsoever. And it isn't their job to do so. They are there to turn the user requirements, which dirtboy has so efficiently collected, into a solution. It is not their job to answer stupid questions from idiot customers, that is my job as project manager. I can best sum up a big part of my job as I eat sh*t so that the developers don't have to. That's probably the part that they appreciate most.

27 posted on 09/15/2004 11:47:56 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur (Jefferson Davis - the first 'selected, not elected' president.)
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To: Non-Sequitur
No you won't. We're the big picture people. We need the input.

Yeah, right, if it isn't in a Gantt Chart, you can't visualize it.

And while we're at it, have you completed that documentation yet?

I emailed it to you last week. Since we've now moved into the development phase, I guess I won't be incorporating your comments into the final draft.

28 posted on 09/15/2004 11:58:33 AM PDT by dirtboy (Kerry could have left 'Nam within a week if Purple Hearts were awarded for shots to the foot.)
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To: dirtboy
Yeah, right, if it isn't in a Gantt Chart, you can't visualize it.

Not entirely true. We also deal with those calendar bar thingies in Powerpoint where we note milestones for management.

I emailed it to you last week. Since we've now moved into the development phase, I guess I won't be incorporating your comments into the final draft.

I was offsite at a training seminar in Cabo San Lucas. Hold up on that final draft, though. The customer is going to make some changes.

29 posted on 09/15/2004 12:10:27 PM PDT by Non-Sequitur (Jefferson Davis - the first 'selected, not elected' president.)
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To: Mr. Jeeves
My husband is a SAS programmer and I HATE the IT industry with a bloody passion. He has been laid off 5 times in 10 years. I wish he would get out of it. We lost everything in the last lay off. I don't want to go through that ever again. I thank God every single day that he still has a job.

He took a salary cut (about 40%) to take the job he has now. Beggars can't be choosers, so I just try to be careful with our money and hope for the best.

30 posted on 09/15/2004 12:17:19 PM PDT by SpookBrat
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To: Non-Sequitur
I was offsite at a training seminar in Cabo San Lucas.

Too bad Hurricane Javier didn't hit while you were there.

Hold up on that final draft, though. The customer is going to make some changes.

That's OK, I already blamed the delay on the fact that you were down in Cabo San Lucas.

31 posted on 09/15/2004 12:22:23 PM PDT by dirtboy (Kerry could have left 'Nam within a week if Purple Hearts were awarded for shots to the foot.)
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To: Non-Sequitur
I was offsite at a training seminar in Cabo San Lucas.

Too bad Hurricane Javier didn't hit while you were there.

Hold up on that final draft, though. The customer is going to make some changes.

That's OK, I already blamed the delay on the fact that you were down in Cabo San Lucas.

32 posted on 09/15/2004 12:22:28 PM PDT by dirtboy (Kerry could have left 'Nam within a week if Purple Hearts were awarded for shots to the foot.)
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To: dirtboy

Thanks again.

I've seen development teams where your role was performed by a senior developer, who also worked on implementing the solution.

What are your thoughts on having a senior developer also perform a "business analyst" function, versus having a person dedicated to that role?


33 posted on 09/15/2004 12:35:50 PM PDT by nsc68
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To: dirtboy

Thanks again.

I've seen development teams where your role was performed by a senior developer, who also worked on implementing the solution.

What are your thoughts on having a senior developer also perform a "business analyst" function, versus having a person dedicated to that role?


34 posted on 09/15/2004 12:35:57 PM PDT by nsc68
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To: nsc68
What are your thoughts on having a senior developer also perform a "business analyst" function, versus having a person dedicated to that role?

Depends upon whether you want him designing or having his neurons dying by the millions during endless conference calls. Plus, the job does require writing skills, in which a lot of development people are weak.

35 posted on 09/15/2004 12:47:12 PM PDT by dirtboy (Kerry could have left 'Nam within a week if Purple Hearts were awarded for shots to the foot.)
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To: searchandrecovery
I used to be a consultant - my first choice would simply be to return to that role with more of a managment/business process focus than a programming focus.

If that doesn't work I'll give the whole thing up and open a guitar store. ;)

36 posted on 09/15/2004 12:47:47 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves
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To: dirtboy

Thanks. When I think of a development team's demographics, I think of several American males in their 30s at least, with a minimum of 10 years of experience in the field.

I get the feeling that's not the type of development team you usually deal with.


37 posted on 09/15/2004 12:50:27 PM PDT by nsc68
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To: nsc68
I get the feeling that's not the type of development team you usually deal with.

We have a mix of Americans and Russians. But the development leads fit your profile.

38 posted on 09/15/2004 12:52:50 PM PDT by dirtboy (Kerry could have left 'Nam within a week if Purple Hearts were awarded for shots to the foot.)
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To: SpookBrat
I used to be a SAS programmer, too - back in the early-to-mid 90's. I loved working with SAS, but once I moved away from a mainframe environment I switched to PERL, Visual Basic, Visual C++ and Transact-SQL.

As I said, I've had a great run, so I don't really hate the "IT industry"...it's just that there really isn't an IT industry any more. Computing is being absorbed back into the disciplines that use it as just another one of the tools that professionals like accountants and investment analysts need to be successful. It's just that when you've spent 20 years doing something, it's awfully hard to go back and transform yourself into something else (and to get hired to do that something else when there are so many 24-year-olds willing to work cheap.)

39 posted on 09/15/2004 12:58:31 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves
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To: Mr. Jeeves
I hear ya. Two layoffs ago, he was let go only to be replaced by a 20 something year old a week later. :(

He is 41 and loves computers. I wish he could get a job as a game tester. LOL

40 posted on 09/15/2004 3:06:52 PM PDT by SpookBrat
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