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IT Jobs Chill
Computerworld ^ | September 13, 2004 | Frank Hayes

Posted on 09/15/2004 10:00:28 AM PDT by Mini-14

SEPTEMBER 13, 2004 - The annual IT workforce study is out from the Information Technology Association of America. And for once, it's genuinely useful. Gone is the rah-rah boosterism of years past. Gone are the million-new-jobs estimates that never came true and the predictions that most new IT jobs would go wanting because there just weren't enough U.S. IT people to fill them.

Instead, it's a sober assessment stuffed with information of value to anyone hiring or looking for work in corporate IT. Much of that information is clearly presented in the report, which you can get at www.itaa.org/workforce/studies/04wfstudy.pdf.

And then there's the stuff that's hidden between the lines.

Officially, the report's executive summary says the U.S. IT workforce grew about 2% between March 2003 and March 2004 -- from 10.3 million to 10.5 million IT workers. Another 230,000 IT jobs should be created by next spring. Technical support, networking and programming are the areas that account for the most new jobs, and the biggest increases were in the Northeast.

But digging deeper -- and then slicing and dicing the numbers -- yields a somewhat different story for corporate IT people. Add in some information the ITAA isn't anxious to admit, and the picture isn't pretty.

How many new IT jobs? According to the hiring managers surveyed, 230,000 by spring 2005. But historically, the people the ITAA polls are, to put it kindly, optimistic. Each year, they typically predict they'll hire twice to four times as many people as the following year's survey indicates they actually did hire. So a prediction of 230,000 new IT jobs suggests there will really be 100,000 new IT jobs -- maybe less.

Where? The highest IT job growth by percentage was in the Northeast, sure enough. But the largest number of new IT jobs last year was actually in the South, the region that now leads the nation, with more than 3 million IT jobs. The West actually lost 20,000 IT jobs from 2003 to 2004.

What kind of employers? A whopping 77% of corporate IT jobs are at companies with fewer than 100 employees. Those companies also say they value employee loyalty far more than larger companies.

What kinds of jobs? Security jobs in networking and databases will be hot. Tech support will be the largest category of new jobs, about 30% of the total; last year, it represented nearly half of all new IT jobs. Web development and the "digital media" category -- the people who create graphics, text, sound and animation for software -- are growing slowly.

But here's where it gets ugly for corporate IT workers. Programmers are in trouble: 28,000 jobs lost last year, with only 29,000 new jobs expected next year by the most optimistic estimates. Tech writing is flat. Enterprise systems integration is barely showing a pulse.

In other words, if you're in operations, bone up on security and you may find a job. But if you're looking for work developing traditional corporate IT systems, you're toast.

What qualifications? Forget certifications -- for a new job, you need four years of college and at least a year of experience, all directly related to the job. Certification and on-the-job training are good for promotions, though.

What else? Interpersonal skills are what roughly half of all companies of all sizes rate as most important among "soft" skills -- more than project management, team building, or oral and written communications.

All this may not be comforting. No rah-rah, no pipe dreams, just chilly reality. That's not what we expect from the industry cheerleaders at the ITAA. But for delivering the cold, hard goods, they deserve our thanks -- just this once.

Frank Hayes, Computerworld's senior news columnist, has covered IT for more than 20 years. Contact him at frank_hayes@computerworld.com.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: employment; h1b; jobs; l1; unemployment
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To: dirtboy
How did you convince your bosses to let you transfer to businessanalyst? I'm a developer, though I ran projects in the military worth more then most of the companies I've worked for. Unfortunetly they all look down their ignorant noses at military experience when I try applying for project management roles.

While I'm a good developer, I would much rather do project management. Since I haven't been able to get into it presently, I'm working on my MBA.

Any advice?

41 posted on 09/16/2004 10:43:41 AM PDT by jb6 (Truth = Christ)
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To: jb6
How did you convince your bosses to let you transfer to businessanalyst?

I didn't. I got laid off from my job of 7 years in 2002, spent 8 months unemployed, and then worked a series of 3 contract positions to position myself more on the business side of things, and now I'm back in a full-time position as a business analyst.

A lot of it comes down to re-emphasizing your business skills over your technical skills, but also demonstrating that, as a business analyst, you wouldn't be committing the technical staff to absurd specifications because you understand how they work. Look at your background, figure out what business knowledge you have acquired, and work on enhancing that knowledge - mine happens to be in marketing databases and direct response. After developing them for years, I realized I understood the business side as well as any analyst.

42 posted on 09/16/2004 10:48:57 AM PDT by dirtboy (Kerry could have left 'Nam within a week if Purple Hearts were awarded for shots to the foot.)
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To: dirtboy

Oh, I understand the business side pretty well. I have an undergraduate in business and one in comp science, but all my experience is military (outside of programming) and even though the military employs a customer concept on all its internal and external projects, no one in IT wants to hear it. I spent over half a year unemployeed and finally got another IT developer job...but this still doesn't get me towards project management, never mind by 5 years of background experience in it. I've been told plenty of times that though I might have more experience the other guy has 'corporate' experience. URG!


43 posted on 09/16/2004 11:11:13 AM PDT by jb6 (Truth = Christ)
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To: jb6
I've been told plenty of times that though I might have more experience the other guy has 'corporate' experience.

That was another aspect of my contracting - prior to being a contractor, I worked for small businesses. I had extensive responsibilities but no pedigree, so to speak. Then, over the course of nearly two years, I contracted with three Fortune 200 companies, and that gave me 'corporate experience.' I really don't have any new practical knowledge, but now know how to talk the lingo and how they think (or don't think).

You might want to see if you can transition by taking a contract position or two.

44 posted on 09/16/2004 11:18:01 AM PDT by dirtboy (Kerry could have left 'Nam within a week if Purple Hearts were awarded for shots to the foot.)
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To: dirtboy

I'm attempting to find a stable environment, more or less, until I can finish my MBA. I am way to far in to transfer universities without loosing a year of study. But I want to head towards what I enjoy...running things.


45 posted on 09/16/2004 11:56:44 AM PDT by jb6 (Truth = Christ)
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To: dirtboy

You said, “Any knucklehead can program a computer”.

I have heard this phrase several times from people who were not “knuckleheads” (Because they couldn’t program a computer).

FWIW, I have been in the computer field for 20+ years, and have always had to turn down job offers, even after 911, I have always made more at my new job than the one I left, and I just turned down a six figure job to start my own company. Doing, guess what programming and fixing things the “knuckleheads” who are hired overseas mess up. The attitude of “Well, they are just ones and zero’s, I wean really, how hard could it be?” is like saying” Its just paint and canvas, how hard could it be?”

“Find what you love, and do that and you will never work another day in your life.”


46 posted on 09/16/2004 2:13:54 PM PDT by DelphiUser (The only good thing about Kerry is he comes with his own Ketchup)
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To: DelphiUser
You said, “Any knucklehead can program a computer”. I have heard this phrase several times from people who were not “knuckleheads” (Because they couldn’t program a computer).

Uh, dude, I was paraphrasing Charles Barkley. The point is, you can write code anywhere in the world. But business knowledge is more likely to be country-specific.

And, FWIW, I worked many years in a developer/analyst position and just this year did a brief contract as a developer.

47 posted on 09/16/2004 2:15:39 PM PDT by dirtboy (Kerry could have left 'Nam within a week if Purple Hearts were awarded for shots to the foot.)
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