"Bart Kosko teaches probability and statistics at the University of Southern California"
Bart Kosko
"World-renowned as the leading proponent and popularizer of Fuzzy Logic"
BWAHAHAHA
There are more things on heaven and earth than are dreamt of with your statistics, you pinhead.
OK, try this for "Fuzzy Logic". It is true that terrorists have an undeniable interest in overstating their influence and abilities. At the same time, terrorists have an interest in making their threats a reality, and so they work to obtain the money, arms, and influence with which to do so. If our Government were to base its security policy solely on the likelihood that Al Qaeda publically exaggerates its own influence, the terrorists would eventually achieve the power that they claim and the destruction that they desire. That is why we need to act now, offensively, and with disproportionate force. You don't wait until the flood comes to begin building the dam.