OK, it is ARG, and it does have both PA and FL in Kerry's column, although recent polls I've seen have Bush with a 3-4 point lead in FL and 1-2 point lead in PA BUT...
I have noticed a continual downward trend since the beginning of the month with the EC vote. Bush averaged about 312 right after the convention, and ever since has gone down in each subsequent count (RCP and EV included) Now he's down to approx 288. At this rate he will lose the electoral college. Hopefully we'll plateau soon (waiting nervously for debates)
W. is gonna need some major help as we get closer to the election. One major such help would be the start of the hussein trial in October.
That sounds true enough, but then look at NJ showing a tie or Bush lead, same with Oregon, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania.
Kerry won't break 200 EV's in the end.
Right now, Zogby, Rasmussen, and ARG are the Dem's favorite pollsters while they hate Mason-Dixon, Gallup, and SUSA. Gee, go figure. The one thing the first group has in common is weighting the polls identical to 2000 exit polling, which of course was not free of controversy in and of itself. Thus, when the returns for 2004 do not match those from 2000, those polls will be off. It is inevitable because the turnout numbers of D's and R's favored D's moreso than recent past and it is hard to see how they will improve on their great 2000 showing especially in the black community, which they will almost certainly do worse. Therefore, Zogby Rasmussen and ARG are going to be wrong...again (and I include Zogby in there because the only thing he got close in 2000 was the national numbers, his state numbers sucked as Sen Lazio will tell you).