[Nonstatist]

The big one in this poll is Florida. A Must Win for Bush

[comebacknewt]

The MSM and the DUmmies will be orgasmic about this. In reality, however, it looks pretty good for W.

As others have mentioned, ARG tends to lean far, far left. Even at that, if W takes only FL out of Fn's tally, he wins by a fair margin.

FL will be tough, but I've got to believe we will win it once again, and with it the election.

[BlueNgold]

The big 4 are:
MI, OH, PA, and FL.

Kerry needs 3, maybe all 4 of these.
Bush needs to keep OH and can then win with either PA or FL.

In general ... if the President gets any 2 he will win. Kerry needs 3, and that still might not be enough with WI going (R).

[Conservative til I die]

Actually, Florida is not necessary if Bush manages to take New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Even with New Hampshire, Florida is not enough for Kerry to win. Tally becomes 272-266 for Bush. Assumes all else stays the same as 2000.