Posted on 09/24/2004 4:22:28 AM PDT by VeniVidiVici
I arrived back home in CT last Friday after driving down to help my little old Mom in Ft. Pierce after she suffered through Hurricane Frances, followed shortly thereafter by the death of her husband, my step-dad. She is a tough cookie, and I tend to underestimate her inner strength, but another blow like this certainly isn't going to help matters. Her house is not 100% after Frances, and the repairs we made were to keep the rain out, not the wind. Shizzle...this sucks.
LOL! Just copied and fowarded to my sister who lives in No.Miami Beach. Hope she still has her sense of humor.
Golden Hurricanes? Who dat. The UM are The Hurricanes or Canes for short. Nothing golden about em.
This is all My Uncle in Daytona Beach fault. About 2 weeks before Charley hit he told a hurricane shutter salesman Hurricane shutters? We NEVER get hurricanes in Daytona Beach!"
Hey Mike, my wife bought me this one for Father's Day:
http://www2.oregonscientific.com/catalog/2_4_49.asp
Seems to work well so far. I procrastinated and didn't get it up till last week.
Nope. I was born and raised in Miami, held season tickets when I lived there, and they have been the Hurricanes since inception. Colors are Orange, green and white, always has been. No gold in there. Tulsa U is called Golden Hurricane, only one I know of.
1500 UTC 9/23/2004 HURRICANE JEANNE FORECAST #19
This is an independent product
Water vapor imagery and mean layer steering flow from the UW-CIMSS indicates a large mid-upper level ridge to Jeanne's north, this will be the reason for Jeanne's motion. Current motion is to the W near 8 kt, this motion should continue through 48 hours followed by a northwest motion and eventually a north motion therafter. However, it does not appear as this northward component will begin until after Jeanne makes landfall in South Florida. GFS and GFDL continue to track Jeanne northward before the Florida landfall; however these models have initialized these ridges too weak all season, therefore, we choose to follow the NOGAPS solution. This forecast is a bit right of the previous one initially and a bit left by day 4 and 5. This track is all consistent with the experimental NASA model.
Jeanne has become better organized this morning based upon satellite imagery, but the latest recon reports flight level winds were only near 74 kt, which would indicate surface winds near 65 kt. This initial intensity is set to 80 kt, but this could be an overestimate. The loss of convection last night and some of the ragged appearance this morning is mostly likely due to the cool upwelled waters under Jeanne, however, as Jeanne moves west it will reach warmer and warmer waters near 85-90 F. SHIPS and GFDL strenghten Jeanne before approaching Florida. We will go with this scenario as Jeanne will become in a favorable environment in 12-24 hours.
Initial: 26.2N 72.0W 80KT
12 Hour: 26.2N 74.0W 85KT
24 Hour: 26.2N 76.2W 95KT
36 Hour: 26.2N 78.4W 105KT
48 Hour: 26.2N 80.4W 90KT (inland)
72 Hour: 28.0N 82.4W 70KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 32.0N 82.0W 55KT (inland)
120 Hour: 36.0N 79.5W 35KT (inland)
Next Forecast: 2100 UTC
Forecaster: Cangialosi
nwhcc.com
Speaking of urgency, I read in the Herald this morning that Max Mayfield had taken down his own hurricane shutters over the weekend, I'd love to know if he's going to put them back up, as that would allow us to know his true thinking on this storm.
He's not going out on a limb, though, I don't imagine, and publicly discount the margin for error that the TPC puts in their forecasts.
I believe I'll wait 'til the morning to put back up the ones of mine that I took down.
This could turn into a new tradition. The Florida version of Groundhog Day. :-)
Sheikdetailfeather posted this on the other Jeanne thread:
"Quote by Jeb Bush at the emergency management news conference just now: "Sometimes I feel it is a test of our resolve. Other times I wake up and feel like the movie Groundhog Day."
...JEANNE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREK TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY TO ST. AUGUSTINE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE.
WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE HURRICANE SITUATION.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES... 470 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER OF JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE.
TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.2 N... 72.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
Still moving 'W'. Slightly faster and same pressure. If it turned late it would be good for me (Orlando) bad for you.
Could pull a Floyd, I guess.
WSVN-TV Miami is running hourly updates and streaming them live at http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
I wouldn't be surprised if the Miami, Orlando and Jacksonville stations go wall-to-wall later today or tonight.
Early this morning, WFTV in Orlando said the path changed to landfall around Daytona instead of Ft. Pierce. The other channels eventually followed suit. Local channels are not saying this, but the national ones are saying that it could still go north before hitting Florida but the best chance for that to happen is if it slows down and the high weakens and pulls it north.
Those guys (NWHCC) are a couple of (Grad? Don't know if both finally actually have undergrad degrees) students and a computer..it's not an actual weather "center." They're prone to massive flopping around of forecasts, panicky sudden track shifts, and certainly demonstrate less skill overall than NHC.
Very good list!!!!!!!!
Not saying they're going to be correct. Just putting it out there in hopes that no one lets their guard down.
I think this storm is all about forward speed at this point. The faster it moves, the further South it will make landfall.
National Weather Channel just said it looks more and more like it will NOT just graze the coast of Florida before going north. It looks more like it will go INTO Florida and then make the turn. They said to be on the alert from West Palm north.
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