Posted on 09/24/2004 4:22:28 AM PDT by VeniVidiVici
Like I've said to the others, I would say Lauderdale and north. There are still some models out there that have it coming in well south of here (WPB/Jupiter area).
Like I said, it's all about forward speed. If it starts hauling ass, Broward County could easily get hit.
This is real troubling. I've watched Jeanne's track confrom to these models over the last several days, always assuming there'd be a Florida hit. Look at the BAM (ominous name, eh?) ... it has Jeanne cutting across the state and then backing up to see what it ran over. Sheesh. Really has my escape west to Tampa plan in doubt.
Not to completely discount it, but from what I've learned at storm2k.com, the BAM model is often an outlier (as it is in this case).
That said, there are two other model tracks that could possibly effect Tampa anyway.
Right about now, I'd settle for a sling psychrometer so I could verify those 88% RH reports I get online and on TV while it's raining at 1 inch/hour.
Per Tom Terry WFTV Orlando just now he puts his money on the NOGAPS and other European models which bring it across Florida rather than the American models which go up the coast. He said the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. As it stands right now Central Florida is going to be getting higher winds than expected. Instead of tropical, they will be hurricane force winds.
This high pressure system is really pressing down on her. The 5pm's are going to move this forecast track south.
My guess is Palm Beach.
WFOR-TV/DT Miami has gone into wall-to-wall coverage. They are streaming their signal (WMP) at: mms://wm-live.world.mii-streaming.net/dayport2
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Not sure this is the time or place to start one of these arguments.
I'm not exactly a scholar on the subject.
But my opinion is that the founding fathers might be OK with some sort of help if things were truly extreme, but that they would be appalled at the idea of a massive tax supported permanent bureaucracy that owned the ability to wield the power of law, as FEMA does.
I'll say this. I was always opposed to such aid until I saw real stories from real local people after Frances.
Migrant workers that saved up for years to buy a mobile home losing everything they own in one fell swoop. I have no problem with them getting all the help they need.
I DO have a problem with 6 figure income types asking FEMA to pay for their generators and insurance deductibles though.
I was in Miami during cat 5 Andrew and the aftermath, so I too am familiar with what happens to peoples' lives when a natural disaster strikes. IMO, our large urban settings make natural disasters much worse than they could have been 200 years ago. Not to mention that restoring modern living standards and expectations requires restoring a level of very expensive technology and infrastructure that didn't exist until very recently.
However, I don't think it possible to overestimate the harm that massive permanent federal bureaucracies (that make their own laws) do to our freedom and heritage.
Which is to say that my opinion is that needed aid should remain in private hands to the degree possible, next in order of desirability would be local government, then state, and federal as the last resort.
Hurricanes were undoubtedly hitting us back in the early days of the US, I wonder if anyone knows how much the federal government actually got involved.
bmp
Hurricane Jeanne Intermediate Advisory Number 44a
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 24, 2004
...Jeanne moving westward at a slightly faster forward speed...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas
...Including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...Bimini...
Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning
area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect along the East Coast of Florida from
Florida City to St. Augustine. The Hurricane Watch may be extended
northward later today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area in the next 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the central Bahamas...
including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San
Salvador. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in the next 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere on the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor
the progress of Jeanne.
We are reminded that from Sundown tonight until Sundown Saturday is
Yom Kippur...a solemn Jewish Holiday. Some of your Jewish neighbors
in the watch and warning areas observing Yom Kippur will not be
listening to radios or watching TV...and may not be aware of the
hurricane situation.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 26.3 north...longitude 72.9 west or about 255
miles... 415 km...east of Great Abaco Island.
Jeanne is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue with a slight increase in forward
speed during the next 24 hours. This motion could bring the center
of Jeanne near the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb...28.61 inches.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible along the track of
Jeanne.
Tides will gradually be rising in the warned area during the next 24
hours. Additionally...dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by
large swells generated by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible elsewhere
along the southeastern U.S. Coast and the northwest and central
Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...26.3 N... 72.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 969 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
This is a significant increase in forward speed. Like I posted earlier, I think that this will shift landfall further south.
I notice her center is 12 nautical miles north of where they had it at 05:00.
after careful observation, I have reached the following conclusion: Jeanne is drunk.
We just moved into our house. The previous owners were on their way to FLA, but decided to go to Vegas til the hurricane blew over. There have been TWO more since then. I keep having dreams that they show up on our door step and want to live with us!! (and that they don't like our decorating!)
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