Posted on 09/24/2004 4:22:28 AM PDT by VeniVidiVici
Hey, watch it, Jeanne is my wife!
Given the 2 PM advisory (would love a 2 PM discussion but I know they don't do that) ... which model is the most accurate given the westward movement at greater than expected speed?
Tom Terry also said it could come in slightly south of Vero.
Let them eat cake!
A question-
Do you think all of these hurricanes/storms are going to skew the economic numbers-like the employment numbers?
Oh Jeannie girl....will hit SC as a cat 3.
She's speeding up!
What say she on this one?
Cap'n! She's gonna blow!! ;-)
I'm starting to lean toward a S.FL landfall myself.
The question is: Is this high pressure building toward the west? It looks like it on this last water vapor I saw on FOX.
I'm inclined to go with a more northerly prediction myself.
OTOH, I remember telling everyone about 2 weeks before being right in the middle of Andrew that it wasn't going to be a problem.
Yes I did and if I may say, she was right on too (a little pride never hurts).....
She hasnt been all the way correct on this one, except for the fact that she said it wouldnt be kicked out to sea when it did its little loop de loop in the atlantic.
as for a landfall, she is saying Cape Canaveral as an extremely strong Category 2 Hurricane. I think it will go further north than that and be a CAT 3 in either JaX or Georgia....
My best investment this year was radios and flashlights that run on AA batteries.
I got so sick of finding the stores out of D's and there were always plenty of AA's, that I looked around till I found flashlights and radios that ran on AA's.
Also found little individual fans that are powered by AA's, so when the power goes out, we each have a little fan of our own.
What a great idea! I'll have to go look for a couple of those.
I dont know why you guys dont buy plywood in March and keep it until November LOL
but I am sure the lumber yards are thanking your neighbors
Actually, most home owners buy and keep their boarding lumber for years and years. But with 3 to 6 false alarms a year for the last 25 years the wood usually gets beat up.
Maybe it was Tulsa I was confusing
You can keep wood for several years. We've had our plywood stored and it's just a matter putting it at the windows with tapcons.
But we had plywood left up at our windows for almost a month and last weekend, we finally took it down. It gets tiresome looking out and seeing plywood instead of nice green grass, plus the house is so dark with the plywood in place.
But if this storm intensifies or looks like it's headed our way, we'll put it back up.
You can keep it for a few years, but it tends to mildew, especially if it gets wet. We store ours in our garage loft, but it still is susceptible to the humidity.
Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 45
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 24, 2004
...Jeanne getting a little better organized as it moves westward
toward the northwestern Bahamas...
...New warnings and watches issued for Florida and Georgia...
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Watch is upgraded to a Hurricane
Warning along the Florida East Coast from Florida City northward to
St. Augustine...including Lake Okeechobee.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas
...Including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...Bimini...
Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence. A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning
area within the next 24 hours.
At 5 PM EDT...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northeast
Florida and Georgia coasts from north of St. Augustine northward to
Altamaha Sound Georgia. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area in the next 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the central Bahamas
...Including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and
San Salvador. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in the next 24 hours.
We are reminded that from Sundown tonight until Sundown Saturday is
Yom Kippur...a solemn Jewish Holiday. Some of your Jewish neighbors
in the watch and warning areas observing Yom Kippur will not be
listening to radios or watching TV...and may not be aware of the
hurricane situation.
At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued from south of
Florida City around the southern end of the Florida Peninsula and
northward along the West Coast to Anclote key...including Florida
Bay...and the Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Jeanne was located
near latitude 26.4 north...longitude 73.5 west or about 225
miles... 360 km...east of Great Abaco Island. This also about 400
miles... 645 km...east of the Southeast Florida coast.
Jeanne is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On
the forecast track...the center of Jeanne is expected to pass over
or near the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds reported by NOAA and Air Force Reserve
hurricane aircraft are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by a reconnaissance
aircraft was 965 mb...28.50 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the
center of Jeanne on the north side of Grand Bahama Island and on
the west side of the abaco islands. Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4
feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west side of
the other islands of the Bahamas in the Hurricane Warning area.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
along the Florida East Coast.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible along the track of
Jeanne over the northwestern Bahamas and Florida.
Tides will gradually be rising in the warned area during the next 24
hours. Additionally...dangerous surf and rip currents...caused by
large swells generated by Hurricane Jeanne...are possible elsewhere
along the southeastern U.S. Coast and the northwest and central
Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...26.4 N... 73.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 45
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 24, 2004
satellite imagery...along with NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter data...indicate the inner-core convection has redeveloped.
While recon data also indicates concentric eyewalls have developed
...Flight-level and stepped frequency microwave...or sfmr...wind
data suggest that Jeanne may be starting to show some signs of
strengthening. The highest flight-level wind reported was 97 kt at
5000 feet and the highest sfmr surface wind was 87 kt. The initial
intensity remains at 85 kt...but it could be higher since the
surface pressure is now 965 mb...which typically supports about 96
kt surface winds.
The initial motion is now 275/10....but the trend in the last two
recon fix positions suggests a motion of possibly 270/11. The
latest NHC model guidance has changed little...but there remain
some subtle differences that could significantly affect the future
track of Jeanne. Most of the model guidance has made a slight north
and eastward shift again...except for the NOGAPS and GFDN models.
Most of the model guidance take Jeanne to along or just east of the
Florida East Coast before turning the hurricane north-northwestward
and paralleling the coastline. Only the NOGAPS...GFDN...and ETA
models take Jeanne across South Florida and Lake Okeechobee. The
NOGAPS and GFDN models have been very consistent with this type of
track the past 36 hours. This scenario is somewhat disconcerting
because those are the only models that take the large high/ridge
near the Delmarva southward to the Outer Banks of North Carolina
before moving it to a position near Bermuda in 36 hours. The other
models quickly weaken the high and move it southeastward. The exact
location of the center of the high/ridge over the next 12-36 hours
will determine how far west Jeanne will move before it begins to
make the turn northward. Special 18z upper-air data indicate the
center the high has not weakened and has actually pushed southward
and is now located just east of wallops islands in the southern
Delmarva. This would suggest...at least in the short term...that
the NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA solution is handling the steering pattern the
best. As a result...no significant change was made to the previous
forecast track.
NOAA recon aircraft found nearly a 5f SST difference between the
eastern and western eyewall...clearly indciating that Jeanne has
created a lot of cold upwelling underneath the hurricane.
Unfortunately...Jeanne is now moving faster away from those
unfavorable ocean conditions and toward much warmer water...83-84f
...Located from the northwestern Bahamas to the Florida Straits. The
current favorable upper-level environment is expected to change
little for the next 24-30 hours. Therefore...steady intensification
...Possibly to category 3/100 kt...is forecast. The intensity
forecast closely follows the SHIPS model...which brings Jeanne up
to 98 kt and 99 kt at 24 and 36 hours....respectively.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 24/2100z 26.4n 73.5w 85 kt
12hr VT 25/0600z 26.5n 75.3w 90 kt
24hr VT 25/1800z 26.6n 77.9w 95 kt
36hr VT 26/0600z 27.4n 80.2w 100 kt
48hr VT 26/1800z 29.0n 81.4w 75 kt...inland
72hr VT 27/1800z 32.5n 81.2w 55 kt...inland
96hr VT 28/1800z 36.0n 75.5w 40 kt...over water
120hr VT 29/1800z 41.5n 67.0w 35 kt
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