Well, what sucks is that I took down the boards over the sliding glass doors. I'm down here in Sunrise, just west of Ft. Lauderdale. I don't think we're going to get a direct Breakfast slam from this thing, but I do have charcoal, some food, flashlights, etc. I suspect we'll end up getting TS force winds again. The only pain is that when all this is done, my brother in law and I will have to go up and do some shingle repair. Be Seeing You,
Chris
1500 UTC 9/23/2004 HURRICANE JEANNE FORECAST #19
This is an independent product
Water vapor imagery and mean layer steering flow from the UW-CIMSS indicates a large mid-upper level ridge to Jeanne's north, this will be the reason for Jeanne's motion. Current motion is to the W near 8 kt, this motion should continue through 48 hours followed by a northwest motion and eventually a north motion therafter. However, it does not appear as this northward component will begin until after Jeanne makes landfall in South Florida. GFS and GFDL continue to track Jeanne northward before the Florida landfall; however these models have initialized these ridges too weak all season, therefore, we choose to follow the NOGAPS solution. This forecast is a bit right of the previous one initially and a bit left by day 4 and 5. This track is all consistent with the experimental NASA model.
Jeanne has become better organized this morning based upon satellite imagery, but the latest recon reports flight level winds were only near 74 kt, which would indicate surface winds near 65 kt. This initial intensity is set to 80 kt, but this could be an overestimate. The loss of convection last night and some of the ragged appearance this morning is mostly likely due to the cool upwelled waters under Jeanne, however, as Jeanne moves west it will reach warmer and warmer waters near 85-90 F. SHIPS and GFDL strenghten Jeanne before approaching Florida. We will go with this scenario as Jeanne will become in a favorable environment in 12-24 hours.
Initial: 26.2N 72.0W 80KT
12 Hour: 26.2N 74.0W 85KT
24 Hour: 26.2N 76.2W 95KT
36 Hour: 26.2N 78.4W 105KT
48 Hour: 26.2N 80.4W 90KT (inland)
72 Hour: 28.0N 82.4W 70KT (inland)
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 32.0N 82.0W 55KT (inland)
120 Hour: 36.0N 79.5W 35KT (inland)
Next Forecast: 2100 UTC
Forecaster: Cangialosi
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