Posted on 09/26/2004 7:19:48 PM PDT by Dales
Could you please add me to your ping list? Also, in your MI box you have the numbers switched on one poll; it should be K53-B42. Not trying to nitpick, but just so no one gets confused.
I should have noted in this article, that the ECB done right after the first debate in 2000 (which would also be before any state polls done after any of the debates had occurred) showed Bush ahead 223-211, and ahead by 1% in the popular vote; those results, I believe, fit in well with the thesis of this article. Where we are at today is very likely where the election will end up.
Agreed.
Oh, THANK you! I felt like I was starving for your analysis... every time new poll numbers came out, all I could think was, "Yeah, but what would Dales say about it???" :-)
BTW, did you see that you have a spectacular Weblog ranking?
36) Daly Thoughts & Dales' Electoral College Breakdown 2004 12673 visits/day (3127)
http://www.truthlaidbear.com/TrafficRanking.php
I saw (well, I see, I track it every day). 36 is actually bad. Most days in the past two weeks I have been about 31-32.
IAWI. That's the key. Iowa and Wisconsin flipping their 17 Electoral Gore votes to Bush. Everything else stays the same as 2000. That's how I see it.
Oh Well...as long as they were gentle. Did I mention how much I appreciate your work on these threads? Thanks!
I'd say 36 is still spectacular given the thousands of weblogs out there :-)
Your traffic probably only went down briefly because of the Rathergate episode, too... folks have been concentrating on Powerline and LGF lately. I'm sure your traffic level will skyrocket as we get closer to November 2cnd... as well as your email level from panicking fans pestering you for your next updates ;-)
The one who is really going to pay for this failure is not W, who will probably win anyway, but rather the nominee in 2008.
Superb work as usual. Until tonight, I never know that there was little or no historical evidence to support the urban myth that debates materially affect Presidential campaigns -- with the 1980 exception, of course. Actually, my belief is that debates tend to consolidate support for each candidate, and change very few minds.
GOP "leaders" would rather lose than be called "racists."
When it comes to voter fraud, that's really what our problem is.
One thing we can do on the ground, however, is tell our volunteers about how much fraud we suspect there is -- that the only way they can do something about it is to make up for it by working hard on the campaign.
Am I on your ping list? If not please add me.
Great work!
This is strictly anecdotal evidence, but my family and I just spent five days in southern WI - Milwaukee area, Madison, Kenosha, Racine... We kept a running total of Bush/Cheney vs. Kerry/Edwards yard signs and bumper stickers (not counting the one on our rental car). :-)
Final totals:
Bumper stickers: Bush/Cheney - 43, Kerry-Edwards - 19
Yard signs: Bush/Cheney - 102, Kerry-Edwards - 45
The area of WI that we spent our time in was not IMHO the most conservative part of the state. I'd say President Bush is well positioned to take back this Gore state.
And if this perceived level of excitement, via stickers/signs, for both tickets accurately reflects WI voter sentiment, Mr. Feingold may well find himself unemployed.
Overlay the maps from about four years ago with this one.
:^{)
Not a bad idea, actually.
Excellent.
My point is, look how much the map changed in '00 in the last six weeks. And it even tilted much more strongly to Bush temporarily back then before he finally eked it out. Bush looked good, then he looked a lock, then he took it by less than hair.
There's room for a TON of wobble in the current map.
No argument from me.
I voted you "number 1 with a bullet" (if you know what that old urban-machine-election saying means) in the Washington Post poll.
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