Finally...I thought you'd been kidnapped by aliens.
I should have noted in this article, that the ECB done right after the first debate in 2000 (which would also be before any state polls done after any of the debates had occurred) showed Bush ahead 223-211, and ahead by 1% in the popular vote; those results, I believe, fit in well with the thesis of this article. Where we are at today is very likely where the election will end up.