[BonnieJ]

Pat Cadell said that the late undecideds usually break for the incumbent, that this challenger's late-surge from undecideds theory is just a myth.

[Uncle Vlad]

"Howard Dean had a policy difference with the Bush administration on Iraq; Kerry essentially does not."

Which Kerry policy on Iraq is the author talking about?

[epluribus_2]

I think we see a lot of undecideds breaking for whoever is winning. Because by now, if you are still undecided, you are not that smart and do not have very deep values.

[KC_Conspirator]

Third, this is indeed a tight race and--as with any incumbent seeking reelection--the undecided vote will break heavily against Bush, which will make Kerry look like he is surging late. (Even hapless Michael Dukakis had such a late surge.)

Late surge from Dukakis? PUH-LEEZE. Dukakis lost California for crying out loud.

II think this article is cliched. Most of those assumptions were true on 9-10, but its a 9-11 world now. I believe Murphy is the guy who ran McCain's "Straight Talk Express" campaign as well as some others.