Posted on 10/02/2004 3:56:52 PM PDT by jwalsh07
Hopefully this will keep certain FReepers from counting all those Nov. 2 chickens before they hatch, regardless of whether it's 'likely' or 'registered'.
Bush won on substance, Kerry won on style. I'd say it doesn't matter what the debate is about, unless Bush improves his stage skills the outcome is the same.
Gallup does not weight their polls. Many others do.
I don't know about the rest of the world, but durn 9:30 PM is not the best time to be doing a survey. I told them to call back at a decent hour if they wanted an answer from this household.
End of Rant, but I do wonder if polls taken later at night tend to slant to more liberal responces.
If you get a chance, take a look at the Gallop, CBS, ABC internals. There is nothing even close to what NewsWeek internals suggest. Whether it's Bush's honesty, toughness, etc. he wins hands down. Even the Dem Corps poll only shows a small two pt. bounce for Kerry with likely voters.
Yeah, it is. Playing with the figures to get the numbers they want, just the way CBS played with their undecided poll the other day.
I see the hysterical posters and trolls are back today. So eager to cut down the President and inaugurate Kerry. I'm not buying it but I suppose they can have their fun since Newsweek went to so much trouble on their behalf. :-)
Do I get a prize?
I trust Newsweek more than John Zogby. Zogby is a pollster who has a pony in the race, too. What a joke all these polls are. My main test is the behavior of both campaigns acting in response to their internal polling. That's the best predictor for me.
Yes, I shouldn't be, but I was really surprised to see how CBS never mentioned that there poll saw Bush actually gain more undecideds than Kerry. It was simply "Kerry gains in Undecideds".
Go Bush!
I trust Newsweek more than John Zogby. Zogby is a pollster who has a pony in the race, too. What a joke all these polls are. My main test is the behavior of both campaigns acting in response to their internal polling. That's the best predictor for me.
"Newsweek national editor Jon Meacham suggested on MSNBC that journalists are tired of Bush being in the lead"
Good GOD. This seems to me to be an unbelievable admission...am sure there's a transcript of this...we need to get this out to FOX...Drudge...Sean...Rush...
Newsweek is obviously controlling their polls (they determine who they poll..number of Rep, Dem, Indies, etc) so the results are what they want at a certain time. Disgusting....
Well, guy, okay, if they target a partisan mix that is their prerogative, but if they did that they have no reason to change from poll to poll. That makes no sense.
The more likely answer is they do not target the mix. This would be worse news. It would mean respondents self identified this way. Hopefully this is not what other polls will show because if they do, it will have nothing to do with the debate. It will derive from the registration drives.
The other polls do not show a massive shift in party self identification, including Gallups post debate poll and Gallup does not weight. So why don't you explain the massive shift in party self identification turning up in a poll run by an organization that has no love for Bush and lots of love for John Kerry.
You cite internal in an attempt to make it sound like a tie. It wasn't.
All the polls show Kerry beat Bush in the debate by a HUGE margin.
Someone should get these internals (linked) to Drudge... This is the type of "Press Advertising" that he likes to hit them on.
It would seem that Newsweek likes to MAKE NEWS so their name is said over and over again in the media... Reporting on the "big swings".
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