Newsweek Manufactures Momentum

RealClear Politics ^ | 10/2/04 | jwalsh07

[jwalsh07]

Poll Date...Pubbies....Dems....Indies....Men....Women

.
.
9/11/04........391........300......270......481....522
10/2/04........345........364......278......481....532

On 9/11/04 Newsweek published a poll showing Bush up 49-43. On 10/2/04 Newsweek published a poll showing Kerry up 47-45.

Here's a test, you tell me why.

[Paleo Conservative]

Here's a test, you tell me why.

They put some special sauce in the poll sample.

[BreitbartSentMe]

Looks to me like they oversampled Pubbies in the September poll, so they could correct the sampling error to produce an automatic gain for Kerry in the October poll, right after the debate.

Figures don't lie, but liars figure.... or
There's lies, damn lies, and statistics

[ez]

Attention Mainstream Press. A poll as phony as the NG documents.

[jwalsh07]

Enlightiator deserves thanks for posting this info on another thread but I think it deserves its own thread. Hopefully the admin folks agree.

[Reagan Man]

Here's a test, you tell me why.

You go first.

[go star go]

a 20% increase in the number of demonrats....

[COURAGE]

More DemocRATS! Plus this is a push pull. They asked first who won the debate, Kerry, etc. Then asked, who would you vote for Prez.

But my club is getting very full now.

Keep an eye on Gallup.

[ez]

Where are those bloggers? This deception should be tomorrow's subject.

[goldstategop]

In last month's poll they oversampled Republicans. In this month's poll, they oversampled Democrats. Newsweek and the partisan media are being too clever by half in subtly changing weighed partisan affiliation stats to get the results they want. In this case, to provide fodder for the discovery Kerry has managed to "tighten up the race." Like I'm shocked this would happen. They're all in the tank for Kerry and have been from Day One.

[dawn53]

Where did you find the internals? I went to the site and didn't know where to look.

[Uncle Hal]

I noticed the big number of GOP members polled in the first poll and was very suspicious. Now they have gone the other way. Obviously, the latest poll is going to swing to wards the Democrats. I am waiting for someone that is an expert to tell me what this all means. If they had the same number of GOP members in the second poll Bush would have been up may be even bigger than in the first poll.

[lt.america]

We already dispelled this NewsWeak garbage earlier today. I for one am not sweating this one. Kerry just made it to the bell but he will be coming out for round two on week legs. My prediction, KO for GWB in the next debate.

[RoseofTexas]

Notice how the Men column has the same percentage?!! The rest is just special EVILISH sauce....THE RATS BETTER NOT CELEBRATE TOOOOO SOON...This poll is RIGGED!! Bawhahahahhahha!!

[gilliam]

Plus this is a push pull. They asked first who won the debate, Kerry, etc. Then asked, who would you vote for Prez.

Exactly.

[ozzymandus]

Looks like dan rather conducted this poll, maybe back in 1972 on his PC.

[jwalsh07]

You go first.

I thought I did.

[jackbill]

From Tim Graham at:
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/graham200410011024.asp

"Shortly before the debate began, Newsweek national editor Jon Meacham suggested on MSNBC that journalists are tired of Bush being in the lead, and so will try to narrow the race. Meacham foresaw "the possibility that President Bush has peaked about a month too early. Because we all need a narrative to change." Chris Matthews asked: "Is that your prediction?" Meacham replied: "I think it's possible that we're gonna be sitting around saying, 'Well you know Kerry really surprised us.' Because in a way the imperative is to change the story." "

Nuff said?

[xtinct]

Newsweek is not a credible source.
RCP Average 9/22 - 10/2 48.7% 44.3% 2.0% Bush +4.4
Newsweek (1013 RV) 9/30 - 10/2 45% 47% 2% Kerry +2 LA Times (1100 LV) 9/25 - 9/28 51% 45% 2% Bush +6 CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV) 9/24 - 9/26 52% 44% 3% Bush +8 IBD/TIPP (649 LV) 9/22 - 9/27 45% 45% 2% TIE ABC News/WP (810 LV) 9/23 - 9/26 51% 45% 1% Bush +6 Pew Research (948 RV) 9/22 - 9/26 48% 40% 2% Bush +8
Rasmussen has Bush ahead by 3.
Electoral College Bush 213...Kerry 169 The Dems more than likely filled the poll. Even AOL polled today and showed Bush the winner...shrug.

[Owen]

Folks,

I am a frequent poster and have an ancient sign up date. This is not contrived negativism, and it's not even critical of Bush.

It is not clear that ANY polls target a partisan mix, other than Rasmussen and Zogby. They can't. This partisan mix result could be self identified.

Meaning, they could call at random and simply ask if the person is GOP or Dem. This would then be the result the random calling got. The questions would be "Are you registered? What party are you registered as? Who would you vote for today?"

This would mean the partisan mix is self identified.

Most of the pollsters do not aim at any mix, with the exception of Rasmussen.