Likely 49% each
Registered voters, Bush 49%, kerry 47%.
Bush approval rating is at 50% (still at magic number)
Somewhere there was a quote from a Bush campaign guy who said they never thought they were 11 points ahead and they expected the race to tighten because it always does.
The campaign is still in better shape now than all year, especially in the Gore states. As Chris said, follow the ad money, and this tells you more than the polls.