Bush Futures selling off ahead of debate

tradesports.com/intrade.com ^

[roses of sharon]

These Bush "supporters", are smart, they are doing their duty for the Kerry/UN/Soros ticket.

As Kerry as done since the 70's, demoralize, and preach self doubt.


Ignore them, and fight.

Get out there and talk to everyone you know, write and email, every minute of everyday.

[AxelPaulsenJr]

To me these furtures markets and trade sports are a mystery.

But what is a deeper mystery to me, is how in a nation of 100,000,000 or so voters, a poll of approximately 700 or so voters can predict the outcome.

[LeftCoastNeoCon]

Bush is still ahead at tradesports.com. Ahead in Iowa Electronics Market. Ahead in the Electoral College. Ahead in the popular vote. Look, guys, it's gonna be a squeaker, sure. But Bush is gonna win.

[drangundsturm]

I have a great deal of knowledge of how markets work, I'm a level 5 options trader (that gives me the ability to write uncovered puts and calls, the most dangerous kinds of options trade). 10 points is not much on a market trading in the 10,000 range. 2 to 3 points is a lot in a market trading in the 100 range.

This is what I said it was, no more, no less, a sell-off that started at about the time of the jobs report. Bush is still decidedly ahead in the market's view of who has the best chance of winning. His lead has been beaten down in the past 15 days, there is no doubt about it, and given all the bad news coming out this week I think it's encouraging to see they still favor bush to win by 58% to 42. We need a break in the bad news, starting with a good debate performance tonight, but some of the bad news coming out is going to make that harder. Not impossible, just a bit harder.

But you would have to be blind not to acknowledge that there have been a series of setbacks since the first debate. A good performance is sorely needed tonight to reverse this trend of setbacks. Bush needs to be in top form.

[albie]

Considering all of the factors against W. I will be amazed if he wins the election. Fuel prices going through the roof, the report on no WMD's in Iraq and now today's jobs numbers figure. This is devastating, if not the final nail in the coffin.

...you sir, are so doom & gloom that the DNC needs you now! How many times have you heard the "no WMD's" bulls$$$? Today's jobs figures have us at 5.4% unemp. Schools are currently being targeted as possibilities for attack. With no plan except "Global Permission" to counter an attack on schools, just where do you think scared Mommies will turn?

[madison46]

Attacks by Bush would do well. People believe him over Kerry and he has more favorable rating. Bush could still put this thing out of reach today

[drangundsturm]

Firstly, tradesports has bush HIGHER than IEM right now so I don't understand your point. (The 2 markets you are comparing are not quite the same, IEM is probability of bush taking the majority of 2 party vote, the tradesports market I quote is probability of bush winning. Bush can win without the majority of 2 party vote because of electoral college demographics. The markets predict there is a few percent chance of this happening.)

Secondly, what is your evidence that the IEM is a "better" market? I can think of many reasons why this would not be so. IEM limits positions to $500 which means smart money can't leverage their advantage as easily. It looks to me like they also have lower volume than tradesports. In addition, the two markets get arbitraged back into agreement pretty quickly in most cases. So I don't see that there is any good argument to say IEM is "better". If I'm missing something here please let me know.

[Balding_Eagle]

This is devastating, if not the final nail in the coffin.

Bush election futures are now trading at 58.5, (and Kerry's at 41.5)

Yeah, it does look like it's over, we don't have the required 2/3 majority to keep a sitting president.

[Gothmog]

Thanks for the post, but I'm betting Bush 53% Kerry 44%. Looking at past presidential results shows Dems can't break 50%. They can only win if the GOP candidate has a really bad scenario (Watergate, Perot).

Nixon's 'silent majority' and Reagan's 'army' -- the white, blue colar demographic, today's 'security moms and NASCAR dads -- gives the GOP the boost they need. And with an external threat (unlike during clinton years) 2004 will look like the 1980s.

The key word is 'potential.' Kerry does not have the potential base to get over 50% while Bush does.

[dalebert]

Bush does not creat jobs.

[Kozak]

I believe that Carl Rove still has a trick or two up his sleeve. Lets give him a chance.

Dammit this shouldn't be about "tricks". This should be about effectivly exposing the flaws and record of the Two Johns, and the important progress the administration has achieved.

[7thson]

I am not as smart as most of you guys, but watching this race for the past year reminds me of professional wrestling. First a guy is on the ropes, then comes roaring back, then on the ropes, then roaring back, etc. Right now, we have a military action going on in Iraq the media are ignoring - the retaking of these insurgent pockets. I think this will be mostly done by the end of October and then the media is handling a fait accompli - whatever - you get the drift. Just like Afghanistan and Iraq, the media was doom and gloom and the next thing you know the tanks are rolling in Baghdad. Something good military will happen in the next couple of weeks.

[builder]

My God, the gloom and doom sometimes in here is scary.I do NOT want to be on a sinking ship with most of you guys. This is starting to get like the LIB sites . If you want crazy mood swings and general malaise; head to those sites.I remain very optimistic.Bush came into office during a recession , the papers all said whoever wins the election is really the loser. We then suffered the largest terrorist attack in our countries history. The MSM is violently against him, and still he stands a good chance of winning with Three weeks to go. Awesome!

[AxelPaulsenJr]

...you sir, are so doom & gloom that the DNC needs you now!

Why is that the standard reply to someone who posts concerns about the way the election is going?

How many times have you heard the "no WMD's" bulls$$$? Today's jobs figures have us at 5.4% unemp.

Yes they are, but also new jobs figures is way lower than expected.

Schools are currently being targeted as possibilities for attack. With no plan except "Global Permission" to counter an attack on schools, just where do you think scared Mommies will turn?

They will turn to hanoi john who is making the promise that he will keep their children out of war.

Tonight W. simply must pound it home on all fronts to hanoi john, he absolutely can not have another debate like last Thursday.

[paulsy]

"I believe that Carl Rove still has a trick or two up his sleeve."

It won't take a trick. Maybe some prayer, and Bush and team getting back on message.

[kevao]

Considering all of the factors against W. I will be amazed if he wins the election. Fuel prices going through the roof, the report on no WMD's in Iraq and now today's jobs numbers figure. This is devastating, if not the final nail in the coffin.

Tonight Bush just needs to remind everybody that "It's hard work; everybody knows that."

[j_k_l]

[AxelPaulsenJr]

Yeah, it does look like it's over, we don't have the required 2/3 majority to keep a sitting president.

Nice putdown!

How accurate have these futures been in PREDICTING who will win?

And is there real money behind these futures?