Posted on 10/08/2004 7:10:46 AM PDT by drangundsturm
Bush election futures down 2 to 3 points from recent highs. (See daily graph, selloff started approximately when jobs report released.)
(Excerpt) Read more at tradesports.com ...
Bush election futures are now trading at 58.5, and had been trading in the 59-62 range for the past several days following the VP debate which was widely regarded as a victory for the Bush team. The price of these futures is designed to be equal to the probability of Bush winning the November 2 election. The contract's most recent high was near 70 about a week before the first presidential debate.
Traders may be dissappointed that the jobs report was weaker than expected in regards to the September number. Traders had likely already factored in a steep upward revision in the yearly figures since that was widely expected by many economists, so that portion of the report was probably not a factor. Traders may also be cautious ahead of the second debate which airs tonight at 9pm Eastern time. A recently-released report on Iraq's lack of WMD may give the Kerry campaign new ammunition in tonight's debate, making it more difficult for Bush.
Lots of bad news lately on all fronts. Not much has gone right since the 1st debate. Jobs report ok but more fodder for Dems. Comments by Bush team members damaging. Momentum has switched, need October surprise.
Considering all of the factors against W. I will be amazed if he wins the election. Fuel prices going through the roof, the report on no WMD's in Iraq and now today's jobs numbers figure. This is devastating, if not the final nail in the coffin.
I believe that Carl Rove still has a trick or two up his sleeve. Lets give him a chance.
I hope you are correct. One thing that I wished he had up his sleave would be to force the Iraqis to put Hussein on trial now in October. A daily dose in the papers of the atrocities that Hussein commited would go a long way to defusing the argument that this is the wrong war at the wrong time.
Wow.
I guess it's all over.
3-1/2 weeks mean nothing.
Don't vote - it's been decided/sarcasm
You people have got to be kidding me.
This is no time for complacency, to be sure. But to say that Bush is out of this race is absurd - especially for a candidate that has a lead in most polls!
As long as national security is the top isse of this race, Bush's chances of winning a second term are very good.
The gloom and doom on here is sickening some times.
He should use his dry humor to humiliate kerry (he does have a great sense of humor, and that will make him seem more upbeat than the ever-complaining kerry, and take the edge off his attacks. Bush's attacks need to be vicious and uncompromising like some of the great lines Cheney used the other night ("if you can't stand up to howard dean...etc.).)
This strategy may cause disdain among some undecideds but it will re-energize the bush base, which is sorely needed to break the kerry momentum.
Never wanna be in a foxhole with you guys but the sad thing is after we win you'll all be up here saying "knew it all the time"
It's pretty exciting to see how expectations for Bush have been lowered for tonight. He need only improve to garner the enthusiasm of the people who support him now and leaned for him recently. The best efforts of the opposition to prevent him lowering expectations have clearly failed. Tonight, all he need be is competent, not excellent.
The talk will be of what a comeback he's made in just a few weeks, followed by talk of him being tired after meeting with FL victims. It will play well.
Even more exciting, if he garners that momentum tonight, I think the team can just decide to forget the 3rd debate. The public won't mind, having seen two already and already sick of the campaigns.
Unless rove (who I consider a traitor) can do something to stop the voter fraud it won't matter.
The key is that over the life of the contract, Bush has traded between 49.0 and 75.0. Kerry has traded between 28 and 50.5. So, Kerry has only briefly traded at or above 50 and Bush has only briefly traded at or below 50.
If Bush can merely make a good showing tonight, enough to re-invigorate his base, better times will be coming soon.
Rasmussen still has bush with a crushing electoral college lead even after all this bad news. That means bush's support runs deep and strong, and can survive bad news. Kerry's support cannot survive bad news, that has been proven time and again.
You gloom and doomers are a big drag. Take a look at the realclearpolitics polls. Electoral vote is all that matters, Bush is 264 Kerry 200.
Go cry in your effin wheaties!
You are kidding right? Do you have any concept of how markets work? The DOW opened 10 points down this morning. Now it is 10 points up. It will be up and down all day today. But anybody who declares it a selloff based on early data is assuming an aweful lot.
But no, enough bad news can still win this for Kerry. The markets now think kerry has about a 41% chance of winning. That's outside my comfort zone.
If you had to choose, you would choose Bush's side of the chessboard for sure, but this race will be tight. Talk a few weeks back about a bush electoral landslide were definitely premature, this race still has a lot of play left. Now is the time to work harder than ever.
shhhhh don't tell them
I agree with this guy. First of all trade sports is not as strong of an indicator as is the Iowa Electronic Market (which by the way has Bush @ 56 and Kerry @ 43). You guys always complain about the media's bias. You are all being brainwashed by their negative spin.
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