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Keyword: polling

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  • Why Is Donald Trump Polling So Well?

    07/01/2015 12:54:57 PM PDT · by Mariner · 108 replies
    National Journal ^ | July 1st, 2015 | By Lauren Fox
    July 1, 2015 Macy's is ditching him, NBC has let him go, and Univision refuses to broadcast his famed beauty pageant. But American voters are still entertaining the idea of President Donald Trump. In a Republican presidential field rich with esteemed governors and senators, tough-talking businessman Trump has managed to rise in the polls to be a top-tier candidate even after he elicited controversy for his statements about Mexican immigrants during his campaign announcement. A CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday showed Trump had 12 percent of the vote among Republicans and Republican-leaners, second only to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who...
  • Trump near top of pack in Michigan, Clinton leads GOP field

    07/01/2015 1:57:04 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 16 replies
    PPP's newest Michigan poll finds a four way cluster at the top of the Republican field- Scott Walker's at 15%, with Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, and Donald Trump all right behind at 14%. Marco Rubio at 9%, Mike Huckabee at 8%, Chris Christie and Ted Cruz at 5%, and Rand Paul at 4% also all make the top 9. Rounding out the field are Carly Fiorina and John Kasich at 3%, Rick Santorum at 2%, Lindsey Graham and Rick Perry at 1%, and Bobby Jindal and George Pataki with less than 1%. It's interesting to note that Trump is in...
  • CNN/WMUR Poll NH Republican Primary

    06/26/2015 6:49:27 AM PDT · by BigEdLB · 9 replies
    CNN/WMUR ^ | 6/26/15 | CNN
    Interviews with 1,010 adults in New Hampshire conducted by land line and cellular telephone on June 18-24, 2015 including 402 who say they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary and 360 respondents who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The margin of sampling error for results based on Republican primary voters is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points and for results based on Democratic primary voters is plus or minus 5.2 percentage points .
  • The Great Polling Hoax: The Reason Behind the Jeb Bush Surge

    06/25/2015 9:39:13 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 9 replies
    Pajamas Media ^ | 06/25/2015 | Arnold Steinberg
    Earlier this week, national media boldly reported that Jeb Bush, nearly doubling his polling numbers, had jumped ahead of the Republican pack. Further, Scott Walker had made big gains and now clearly was in second place, with Marco Rubio strongly in third. Six candidates (including Donald Trump) somehow each scored only 1 percent or less. Rick Santorum miraculously was at zero.The resulting media spin can affect each candidateÂ’s momentum and fundraising, as well as shape reporting over the next few weeks.One plausible reason for the apparent Jeb Bush surge is that this widely heralded NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey...
  • Poll: Only One-Third of Republicans Support Same-Sex Marriage

    06/18/2015 2:43:05 PM PDT · by Sean_Anthony · 31 replies
    Canada Free Press ^ | 06/18/15 | Sierra Rayne
    The polling results indicate that same-sex marriage will be an important, and likely very divisive, factor in the 2016 U.S. general election New polling data from the Pew Research Center shows very low levels of support for same-sex marriage among Republicans. The Pew Research Center survey, conducted May 12 to 18 among 2,002 adults, found just one-third of Republicans support same-sex marriage, in contrast to 65 percent of Democrats and Independents. Among religious groups, white evangelical Protestants are dominantly opposed to same-sex marriage, with a 70 percent opposition rate. Other major groups surveyed—including Catholics (38 percent opposed, 56 percent in...
  • New polling shows Clinton vulnerable in swing states - and CNN recognizes just how bad it is

    06/18/2015 8:56:27 AM PDT · by Sean_Anthony · 34 replies
    Canada Free Press ^ | 06/18/15 | Robert Laurie
    The "inevitable" meltdown Despite the fact that team Clinton seems to be sticking with their “no polls show voters find Hillary untrustworthy” line, virtually every single poll reveals exactly the opposite. Mrs. Clinton’s trust numbers are in the dumper, and they’re consistently getting worse. The latest research to confirm this comes from Quinnipiac which, as CNN reports, holds an awful lot of bad news for Hillary’s swing state hopes. A majority of voters in three key presidential swing states view Hillary Clinton as not honest and trustworthy, according to a new poll out Wednesday. The Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll...
  • Clinton, Rubio Close In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds

    06/17/2015 6:51:24 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 9 replies
    Quinnipiac ^ | June 17, 2015
    FLORIDA: Clinton 47 - Rubio 44 OHIO: Kasich 47 - Clinton 40, Clinton 43 - Paul 43 PENNSYLVANIA: Rubio 44 - Clinton 43, Paul 45 - Clinton 44 U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida runs best against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 presidential matchups with eight top Republican contenders in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. Voters in each state say by margins of 8 to 14 percentage points that the Democratic front-runner is not honest and trustworthy. Clinton still leads or is in a...
  • Hillary Clinton's Slide in Polls Leaves Her Vulnerable

    06/09/2015 5:46:17 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 25 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | June 9, 2015 | Michael Barone
    "Despite everything," the often interesting analyst Jamelle Bouie writes in Slate -- "everything" includes "the email controversy, foreign donors and the Clinton Foundation" -- "Hillary is in good shape." Good enough to leave her party "still positioned for victory." Bouie is writing in response to the ABC News/Washington Post and CNN/ORC polls released last week, which show Hillary Clinton's favorable/unfavorable numbers plunging. ABC/WaPo puts them at 45-49 percent negative, the lowest since April 2008. CNN/ORC puts them at an almost identical 46-50 percent negative, the lowest since March 2003. The most significant thing about these results is that Clinton evokes...
  • The Coming Democratic Panic

    06/06/2015 5:29:45 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 118 replies
    Weekly Standard ^ | June 15, 2015 issue | Fred Barnes
    When a CNN poll last week showed Hillary Clinton leading Rand Paul by a single percentage point(48-47)and only three points ahead of Marco Rubio(49-46)and Scott Walker(49-46), it was mildly shocking. In April, her lead over the three Republican presidential candidates had been in double digits:Paul(58-39), Rubio(55-41), and Walker(59-37).But wait. If the next CNN survey shows Clinton actually behind one or two or three of the GOP candidates,it won’t be just shocking. It will send Democrats into a near-panic over the possibility of losing the White House in 2016, even with their preferred candidate, Clinton,as nominee.Such a poll result isn’t far-fetched...
  • Townhall-Gravis Poll Puts Kelly Ahead in June 2 MS-1 Special Election

    05/31/2015 6:29:23 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 13 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | May 31, 2015 | Neil McCabe
    The Republican combat veteran of Iraq and district attorney running in the June 2 special election for Mississippi-1 leads Democrat Walter Hunter Zinn Jr., 54 percent to 37 percent, according to a May 28 Townhall/Gravis poll of 509 likely voters. Trent Kelly, a colonel in the Mississippi National Guard, is the choice for 77 percent of Tea Party voters and 69 percent of voters opposed to abortion rights, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based polling company that conducted the poll. The poll carries a 4 percent margin. Among voters, living in households with at least...
  • Conservative Voters Give Pollsters Politically Correct Answers . . . and Then They Vote

    05/10/2015 11:00:45 PM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 62 replies
    National Review ^ | May 10, 2015 | John Fund
    The website of Nate Silver, the American polling expert, surveyed all of Britain’s public-opinion surveys on Election day in Britain and declared that the chance that David Cameron’s Conservatives would win a majority of seats “was vanishingly small when the polls closed — around 1 in 500.” But that is precisely what happened, leading Nate Silver to write a piece titled “The World May Have a Polling Problem.” He listed the errors that overtook “probably the four highest-profile elections of the past year, at least from the standpoint of the U.S. and U.K. media”: 1) The final polls in the...
  • Inquiry to examine (UK) Election Polls Major Failure

    05/08/2015 8:21:54 AM PDT · by tcrlaf · 23 replies
    Newstalk ^ | 5-8-2015 | Newstalk
    Polls had the race neck and neck until the last moment An independent inquiry is to be carried out into the accuracy of election polls after underestimates of the Conservatives' lead over Labour. Predictions of a neck-and-neck race, a near-balanced parliament, and a potential constitutional crisis following the General Election put forward by all major pollsters during the campaign were proved drastically wrong. In the end, David Cameron's party secured an overall majority, something even the exit poll of 22,000 voters at 141 polling stations did not detect. The British Polling Council (BPC), which acts as the association for opinion...
  • Libertarians Outnumber Both Liberals and Conservatives

    04/18/2015 4:39:28 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 56 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | April 18, 2015 | John C. Goodman
    Rand Paul’s entry into the presidential race raises an interesting question: Just how many people consider themselves “libertarian” and what is the potential voting strength of this segment of the population? Paul Krugman weighed in early with the brash claim that "there basically aren't any libertarians." But as David Henderson reminds us, once again Krugman’s opinions are nowhere near factual reality. Gallup, which has been polling on the issue for quite some time, finds that 38 percent of the public identifies as “conservative” and 24 percent as “liberal” in the latest poll Gallup doesn’t ask people if they are libertarian,...
  • RedState 2016 Presidential Primary Power Rankings: April 2015

    04/14/2015 10:28:52 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 21 replies
    RedState ^ | April 14, 2015 | Leon H. Wolf
    [At the source, the rational is given after each candidate] The first tier 1. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) (Sen. – FL) (Last month: 3) (Points: 91) 2. Scott Walker (Gov. – Wisconsin) (Last month: 1) (Points: 88) 3. Jeb Bush (Fmr. Gov. – FL) (Last Month: 3) (Points: 81) The Second Tier 4. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) (Senator – TX) (Last Month: 4) (Points: 73) 5. Bobby Jindal (Gov. – LA) (Last month: 5) (Points: 54) 6. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)(Sen. – KY) (Last month: 8) (Points: 52) The Third Tier 7. Rick Perry (Fmr. Gov. – TX) (Last month:...
  • California May Be In Play For 2016 Presidential Race..

    04/14/2015 9:55:57 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 32 replies
    CBS-8 ^ | April 14, 2015 | Emerson College Polling Society
    SOURCE Emerson College Polling Society BOSTON, April 14, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new poll conducted in California by the Emerson College Polling Society (ECPS) suggests that the perennially blue state, which has not been won by a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, may be in play for the 2016 election. Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 46-point lead over Senator Elizabeth Warren, her nearest potential rival for the Democratic nomination. However, in head-to-head matchups with the top two GOP contenders, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, Clinton's 53% to 47% edge is within the poll's margin of error of +/- 3.2%. California...
  • Poll: Americans trust Fox News over Obama on climate change

    04/03/2015 12:22:34 PM PDT · by Red in Blue PA · 14 replies
    People in the U.S. trust Fox News more than President Barack Obama when it comes to climate change, a new poll has found.
  • French rabbi told to remove kippa at polling station

    03/31/2015 9:53:01 PM PDT · by Nachum · 9 replies
    ynet ^ | 3/30/15 | Tali Farkash
    The chief rabbi of the French city of Toulouse, Harold Avraham Weill, was ordered Sunday to remove his kippa inside a polling station before voting in the city's local elections. The demand was made by a polling clerk from the Left Front coalition, according to a report by Russian news site Russia Today. France prohibits wearing religious symbols, such as crucifixes, Jewish skullcaps and Muslim headscarves, in state schools. However, the law does not apply in cases in which schools are used as polling stations during the Election Day. The incident on Sunday marked the first time the law was...
  • Texas Poll: Scott Walker in Dead Heat with Sen. Ted Cruz

    02/23/2015 8:02:16 AM PST · by Cincinatus' Wife · 45 replies
    News Max ^ | February 23, 2015 | Melissa Clyne
    Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker appears to be on a roll. After coming out on top at last month's Iowa Freedom Summit — a surprise to many — Walker is now in a dead heat with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in the Lone Star state, according to a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll. Walker has stripped Cruz of the 25 percentage-point lead he had in October, The Texas Tribune reports, with the two now in a statistical tie. Cruz had the support of 20 percent of Texas registered voters; Walker had 19 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ben...
  • Aside From That, Gen. Custer

    12/29/2014 8:02:39 AM PST · by Kaslin · 13 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | December 29, 2014 | Rich Galen
    CNN was agog (not a word I get to use in a sentence every day) with the results of a new poll released right before Christmas that showed President Barack Obama's job approval ratings shooting up in the polls. The apogee of the shot? 48 percent. No, the ratings didn't rise by 48 percentage points, they rose to 48 percentage points meaning, a majority of Americans still do not approve of the job the President is doing. I was on CNN Friday morning with one of my favorite debate partners, Maria Cardona, who proclaimed the clouds having parted and the...
  • What the Pollsters Missed: Voters Crushing Obama

    11/07/2014 9:00:37 AM PST · by Kaslin · 32 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | November 7, 2014 | Matt Towery
    I've been called a lot of things over the years, but "biased for the Democrats" has generally not been one of them. But that's what I and other pollsters were labeled following Tuesday's elections by statistical gurus such as Nate Silver of ESPN. What's that? You've never heard of Nate Silver? Well, don't worry; neither has 99 percent of America. The other 1 percent probably relied on his lousy statistical forecast and bet that Brazil would win the World Cup earlier this year. (They got routed.) But Nate is right. Pollsters, in general, got 2014 wrong. My firm, InsiderAdvantage, polled...
  • Polling Shows Impact of Abortion Issue in Mid-Term Election

    11/07/2014 7:53:56 AM PST · by Morgana · 3 replies
    National Right To Life ^ | November 6, 2014 | Polling
    23% of voters cited abortion and voted pro-life 28% heard from National Right to Life WASHINGTON – A new post-election poll of actual voters conducted by The Polling Company/ WomanTrend, found that the issue of abortion once again played a key role in the mid-term elections, and that National Right to Life and its state affiliates were key to getting out the pro-life vote for pro-life candidates. Twenty-three percent of voters said that the abortion issue affected their vote and voted for candidates who oppose abortion. This compares to just 16% who said abortion affected their vote and voted for...
  • The danger of listening to PSY-OPS polls

    11/05/2014 11:00:19 AM PST · by jmaroneps37 · 5 replies
    coachisright.com ^ | November 5, 2014 | Kevin “Coach” Collins
    “Oh boy this is going to be a nail biter; a real long night; and we might not know who will control the Senate until January!” Reading sites like Real Clear Politics (RCP) this was the only reasonable position to take yesterday. In race after race across the country we were told that Republican candidates were losing the strong lead we intuitively knew they had. We heard from RCP and elsewhere that Tom Cotton’s lead had fallen to just 2 points when that same day another poll had him plus 12. Both were factored in and of course that diluted...
  • The Polls Were Skewed Toward Democrats

    11/05/2014 8:26:12 AM PST · by C19fan · 25 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | November 5, 2014 | Nate Silver
    For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats in 2012. The Democrats’ complaints may have been more sophisticated-seeming than the ”skewed polls” arguments made by Republicans in 2012. But in the end, they were just as wrong. The polls did have a strong bias this year — but it was toward Democrats and not against them. Based on...
  • From Bias to Bigotry

    10/25/2014 10:32:03 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 12 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | October 25, 2014 | Gary Bauer
    Recently, after the New York Times published a racially insensitive article about film and television producer Shonda Rhimes, the paper became the object of weeks of scorn and derision that prompted a public debate over racial diversity in the newsroom. It may be true that the Times should diversify its staff on racial grounds. But there is another area in which the Times is sorely in need of diversification: its coverage of religious and social conservatives. The Times has always had a liberal bias. But these days its goal seems to be to drive social conservatives from the public square entirely....
  • Is It As Close As That?

    10/25/2014 5:08:55 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 32 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | October 25, 2014 | Erick Erickson
    For most of 2012, I maintained that Mitt Romney would lose to Barack Obama. Only after President Obama's first debate did there seem to be a glimmer of hope. After that debate, polling moved in Romney's direction. Conservatives had hope. As we now know, much of the polling in 2012 was wrong. There were some great pollsters. The IBD/TIPP poll, the Reuters/Ipsos poll, the Pew Poll, and others were spot on. But many pollsters, including the most prominent pollster of all, Gallup, were left with black eyes. After the election, Scott Rasmussen left his own eponymous polling firm. The Rasmussen...
  • Obama Slumps To 35 In Latest Approval Poll

    09/25/2014 5:33:29 PM PDT · by Red in Blue PA · 59 replies
    <p>Barack Obama’s approval rating slid into dangerous territory this week, with the latest Reuters-Ipsos poll showing just 35 percent of Americans approve of the president’s job performance even as he leads the nation into a war against Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East.</p>
  • Obama’s Moment to Seize the Day in Iraq

    08/30/2014 10:32:49 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 7 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | August 30, 2014 | Raymond Tanter
    Reports President Obama authorized surveillance flights over Syria suggest he is beginning to seize the moment given to him by the horrific execution of American journalist, James Foley. If he authorizes airstrikes into Syria against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), even over the horizon from Iraq, it could reinforce the “moderate” Free Syrian Army against both ISIS and Assad. Even if such strikes also helped Assad against ISIS, they would be worth the effort. Interests If the surveillance over Syria indicates the President if abandoning his strategy of defensive containment and going on the offensive with a...
  • Please Don't Shoot the Pollster

    08/28/2014 9:49:01 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 5 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | August 28, 2014 | Matt Towery
    If memory serves me, I have to write some variation of this column every election cycle. Just 10 years ago, public opinion surveys for elections were a mysterious mix of science and technology. It held little interest except to the political campaigns that lived and breathed by its numbers. But in the last decade, political polling has become a sport. Make that a blood sport. Some readers will recall the late TV sportscaster Howard Cosell. He was brilliant, but as he put it in the title of his own autobiography, "I Never Played the Game." These days, for every one...
  • A question for Washington pollsters: How wrong must you be to never work in that field again?

    08/22/2014 5:33:39 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 5 replies
    Washington Post ^ | 08/22/2014 | By Ben Terris
    Just how wrong does someone have to be to lose their job in Washington, D.C.? For John McLaughlin, even historically wrong wasn’t enough. If the name doesn’t ring a bell, maybe you know his work. He’s the Republican pollster who predicted just weeks before the June election that then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) would win his primary by 34 points. This week, Cantor packed up his Capitol Hill office, having lost that election by 10 points. “The worst part of it is, you build a relationship with a longtime friend and you never want to lose,” McLaughlin says now,...
  • President Obama's New Poll Numbers Eerily Similar To Bush's Before 2006 Wipeout

    08/07/2014 4:39:00 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 46 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | August 6, 2014 | Matt Vespa
    The recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll surely doesn’t bode well for the Obama administration, which promised hope and change on a platter back in 2008. Seventy-one percent of Americans feels that the country is going in the wrong direction. President Obama’s job approval has dropped to 40 percent–and only 42 percent approve of how he’s handling the economy. Approval on foreign policy, an area where this administration polled somewhat strongly, fell to 36 percent among Americans. Regarding the economy, Carol Lee of the Wall Street Journal said earlier this morning on MSNBC’s Morning Joe that “there’s a total...
  • In 100 Days, an Election About Competence

    07/27/2014 6:35:12 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 26 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | July 27, 2014 | Greg Walden
    Back in January, Nancy Pelosi had an infamous interview with Jon Stewart of “The Daily Show” that crystalizes what the 2014 election – just 100 days from today – is really all about. Pressed on the problems with the rollout of ObamaCare, Stewart asked Pelosi whether Democrats needed to make a stronger case for the “competence of government” if they were going to try to pass large, expansive programs. “Why is it so hard to get a company to execute that competently?” Stewart said of the ObamaCare website. Stunned, Pelosi responded simply: “I don’t know.” “What do you mean...
  • Is Religion 'Old-Fashioned' and 'Out of Date'?

    07/11/2014 12:27:35 PM PDT · by nickcarraway · 31 replies
    The Atlantic ^ | JUL 10 2014 | Emma Green
    The downsides of using poll data to understand the arc of historyIn one of the most ambiguous poll questions ever, Gallup has asked Americans to once again act as a tenuous bellwether for the impending death of religion. In a May survey, more than 1,000 people were asked to pick between two vague sense impressions of faith: "Do you believe that religion can answer all of today's problems, or that religion is largely old fashioned and out of date?" Shockingly, only 13 percent of people took the out of answering "no opinion" or "other," which is one way of saying...
  • Utilizing The Pew Research Center Political Typology Report [Series]

    07/07/2014 1:41:25 AM PDT · by dignitasnews
    Dignitas News Service ^ | July 7, 2014 | Paul M Winters
    In its recently released report titled Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology, the Pew Research Center has provided conservatives an excellent opportunity to utilize their findings to specifically target our message and utilize resources wisely to capture disaffected Democratic Party voters. The report is one of the most comprehensive analysis of the trends and attitudes which drive the voting decisions of various subsets of the American public. In what will be the first of a running series, Dignitas News Service will provide an overview of the report as well as detailed explanation of the classifications of voter which Pew...
  • Despite Academia's Best Efforts, Reagan Tops in Poll of Modern Presidents

    07/03/2014 5:52:13 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 19 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | July 3, 2014 | Matt Towery
    In past columns, I've mentioned some teachers and professors that I've known who bluntly said that Ronald Reagan was the nation's worst president. It has become rather common in academia to describe the Reagan years as being filled with greed, and later, with deception in the Iran-Contra matter. Ronald Reagan's "trickle down" economic policies are dismissed in many classrooms as the very "voodoo economics" they were so termed by his onetime opponent and later vice president, George H.W. Bush. And Reagan's visible decline as a result of Alzheimer's in his later years is often implied to be a fit...
  • Obama's Supporters Said 'Go Gangsta' -- Too Bad He Listened

    07/03/2014 10:38:21 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 16 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | July 3, 2014 | Larry Elder
    Obama's poll numbers dropped below those of former President George W. Bush. By the end of Bush's term, focus groups were telling pollsters they despised the very four-letter word B-U-S-H. When John McCain faced Obama in 2008, Democrats gleefully slammed McCain's quest as the "third Bush term." Given Obama's light resume and see-no-flaws cheerleading by an adoring media, Obama's fall was inevitable. If absolute power corrupts absolutely, absolute adoration comes close. In practically anointing Obama, our "watchdog" media ignored a thin resume full of red flags. So in four years, Obama shoots from unknown state lawmaker, with little private sector...
  • Poll: Obama worst president since WWII

    07/02/2014 5:23:22 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 32 replies
    The Hill ^ | July 2, 2014 | Justin Sink with Peter Sullivan
    President Obama is the worst president since World War II, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday. The poll finds that 33 percent of voters say Obama is the worst since the war, with George W. Bush trailing in second place at 28 percent. The only other president in double digits, at 13 percent, is Richard Nixon, who resigned from office after the Watergate scandal. The results raise the possibility that voters are choosing the presidents who are freshest in their memory. Or they could just think that this century has produced historically bad presidents. Obama ran in 2008 as...
  • Why Polling Fails - Republicans Couldn’t Predict Eric Cantor’s Loss

    06/12/2014 8:44:16 AM PDT · by Kenny · 47 replies
    The New York Times ^ | JUNE 11, 2014 | FRANK LUNTZ
    ERIC CANTOR wasn’t the only person at a loss for words on Tuesday night. His pollster, McLaughlin & Associates, found itself trying to explain the impossible — how a projected 34 percent lead for the House majority leader 12 days before the election could end up an 11-point loss on Election Day to David Brat of the Tea Party in the Virginia Republican primary. We’ve all been there. There isn’t a pollster alive — me included — who hasn’t had to take the walk of shame, hat in hand, to explain to an angry client why a predicted outcome simply...
  • Hang in There, America! The Day of Political Reckoning is Only Six Months Away

    04/30/2014 10:05:20 AM PDT · by Kaslin · 39 replies
    Townhall.com ^ | April 30, 2014 | Donald Lambro
    WASHINGTON - President Obama's approval rating in a closely- watched poll has sunk to a new low that will likely further damage his party's dimming prospects in this fall's midterm elections. As he returns from a week long, four-nation Asian tour, overshadowed by his mishandling of Russian aggression in Ukraine, he faces a Washington Post-ABC News survey showing his job approval score has sunk to 41 percent. More ominous for Democrats, who now fear they could lose control of the Senate this fall, a majority of voters say "they prefer a Congress in Republican hands to check the president's agenda,"...
  • Running for President? A Known Name Can Help

    04/30/2014 9:49:06 AM PDT · by PaulCruz2016 · 14 replies
    ABC News ^ | 04-30-2014 | Greg Holyk
    When it comes to running for president – at least at this early stage – a famous name sure helps. So it is in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, in which some of the most recognizable potential candidates – Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan – lead a crowded 2016 Republican field, albeit none with anything near a clear advantage. Moving on to a hypothetical matchup between Bush and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat leads, boosted by a huge gender gap and with a more popular clan, as well. Sixty-six percent of Americans express a favorable view...
  • Michigan Miscellany (Rand Paul Polling First In Michigan)

    04/09/2014 1:17:09 PM PDT · by PaulCruz2016 · 30 replies
    Public Policy Polling ^ | 04-09-2014 | Tom Jensen
    It looks like Michigan will remain solidly in the blue column if Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2016. She leads her potential Republican opponents in the state by anywhere from 9 to 12 points: it's 46/37 over Chris Christie, 48/39 over Rand Paul, 49/38 over Jeb Bush, and 50/38 over Mike Huckabee. Republicans are split a lot of different ways when it comes to who they'd like as their nominee in 2016. 16% want Rand Paul, 15% each support Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee, 11% are for Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush is at 9%, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker...
  • NBC and CBS Hope Pontiff's Popularity Rubs Off On Obama

    03/27/2014 2:04:44 PM PDT · by Kaslin · 28 replies
    Newsbusters.org ^ | March 27, 2014 | Kyle Drennan
    During coverage of President's Obama meeting with Pope Francis on Thursday, both NBC's Today and CBS This Morning hoped the papal visit would boost the commander-in-chief's sinking poll numbers. Today co-host Matt Lauer wondered: "The Pope, enormously popular....Is there something in just rubbing elbows with the Pope for President Obama?" [Listen to the audio or watch the video after the jump] Chief White House correspondent Chuck Todd observed: "I think that the President, particularly right now where his own approval ratings are not so hot, just being seen with the Pope, particularly in some places where there are a lot...
  • CNN Poll: Rand Paul goes where his father never went

    03/16/2014 1:55:55 PM PDT · by PaulCruz2016 · 43 replies
    CNN ^ | 03-16-2014 | CNN
    Washington (CNN) - Rand Paul has done something his father never did - top the list of potential Republican presidential candidates in a national poll. According to a new CNN/ORC International survey, 16% of Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP say they would be likely to support the senator from Kentucky for the 2016 nomination. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee, garnered 15%, with longtime Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who's considering another bid for the White House, at 11%. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 GOP presidential candidate, is the only other...
  • MSNBC.com Wildly Spins: 'Obama Approval Ratings Turn Around'

    01/09/2014 5:55:22 PM PST · by Kaslin · 24 replies
    NewsBusters.org ^ | January 9, 2014 | Ken Shepherd
    "Obama approval ratings turn around," exulted the msnbc.com landing page headline for Traci G. Lee's January 9 story, "Positive start to 2014 for Obama: poll." Lee set about spinning the results of the latest Quinnipiac Poll, which shows President Obama sitting atop a 41 percent approval rating, up from a low of 38 percent in December, but still a net negative approval rating. Lee used the slight uptick in approval as a springboard to forecast that the president's economically liberal spending agenda could change his and his party's fortunes (emphasis mine): Obama is likely to use his upcoming State of...
  • The Agony of Frank Luntz

    01/07/2014 9:10:03 PM PST · by campaignPete R-CT · 21 replies
    The Atlantic ^ | Molly Ball
    Luntz—the tubby, rumpled guy who runs the focus groups on Fox News after presidential debates, the political consultant and TV fixture whose word has been law in Republican circles since he helped write the 1994 Contract With America—has always been a hard man to please. But something is different now, he tells me. SNIP. His belief in unfettered capitalism and individual self-reliance appears stronger than ever. He hasn't become disillusioned with his very profitable career or his nomadic, solitary lifestyle. His complaints—that America is too divided ... SNIP "I just gave up, I didn't work on Mitt Romney's campaign. It...
  • Poll: Obamacare support, Obama approval sink to new lows

    11/20/2013 5:17:04 AM PST · by Zakeet · 13 replies
    CBS News ^ | November 20, 2014 | Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Anthony Salvanto and Fred Backus
    President Obama's job approval rating has plunged to the lowest of his presidency, according to a new CBS News poll released Wednesday, and Americans' approval of the Affordable Care Act has dropped it's lowest since CBS News started polling on the law. Thirty-seven percent now approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing as president, down from 46 percent in October -- a nine point drop in just a month. Mr. Obama's disapproval rating is 57 percent -- the highest level for this president in CBS News Polls. [Snip] Republicans are nearly unanimous in their disapproval of the law, and...
  • Obama needs his friends back ["cost-shifting inevitable"]

    11/14/2013 1:54:30 AM PST · by Cincinatus' Wife · 13 replies
    Washington Post ^ | November 13, 2013 | E. J. Dionne, Jr.
    ".......The very purpose of insurance reform is to create a broad market in which the less healthy will be able to get coverage at affordable prices. This made a certain amount of cost-shifting inevitable, a truth captured succinctly by the New Republic’s Jonathan Cohn, one of the nation’s premier health policy writers:“You can’t fix health insurance without changing health insurance.”...............A detailed comparison of two Pew surveys — one conducted in December that found Obama with a 55 percent approval rating(with 39 percent disapproving)and the more recent survey with the 12-point approval deficit — shows that, while he has lost support...
  • Obama regime approval plummets

    11/10/2013 7:23:42 AM PST · by TheMantis · 44 replies
    Examiner ^ | 11/10/2013 | Robert Elliott
    Best news in the poll: 60% disapprove of the lawless Obama regime's immigration policies, meaning that the Democrat-controlled Senate's amnesty plan is likely dead in the House. Even 42% of Democrats dislike the way Obama wants to reward criminal foreigners with citizenship, jobs, welfare, and the vote.
  • Gallup has Obama down to 39%

    Finally people are starting to wake up...
  • Ted Cruz is right, the GOPe is wrong: opposition to Obamacare is a winning position

    10/25/2013 9:10:48 AM PDT · by Oldpuppymax · 11 replies
    Coach is Right ^ | 10/25/13 | Kevin "Coach" Collins
    The latest lie from Nancy Pelosi is her claim that the Republican’s 63 seat pick up victory in 2010 was caused by voter anger over the TARP vote in 2009. A newly released analysis of the exit polls from 2010 shows a completely different story. Claiming the high road, the lying Pelosi alleged that the 2009 TARP vote was some kind of “vote what’s good for America not what’s good for you” sacrificial undertaking by Democrats who knew what would happen but voted for TARP anyway This sounds nice but like so much of the rest of liberalism it’s a...
  • The Republican Schism

    10/22/2013 1:48:36 AM PDT · by Cincinatus' Wife · 10 replies
    RedState ^ | October 22, 2013 | Erick Erickson
    There is a data set within yesterday’s CNN poll that even CNN largely overlooked, but that explains so much of the current tension within the Republican Party. .......The real division within the Republican Party now isn’t even between those who call themselves tea partiers fighting the establishment. “Tea party”, like “conservative” and “Republican”, has less meaning these days and I increasingly dislike using the word. Admittedly though, everyone would consider me one based on the general parameters of what the tea party is.In any event, the real fight within the Republican Party now is between those who believe we actually...