Keyword: polling

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  • 2018 polling recapitulates the pattern of 2016: Dem triumph predicted (except by Rasmussen)

    11/06/2018 12:56:55 PM PST · by detective · 5 replies
    American Thinker ^ | November 6, 2018 | Jared Peterson
    As in 2016, the divergence between Rasmussen and all the other polling outfits is striking: Rasmussen's last pre-election poll published Monday has an astonishing +1 advantage for Republicans on the generic congressional ballot (46-45). If Rasmussen's results are a remotely accurate prediction of today's outcome, it would be time to hide the razor blades and other sharp instruments in liberal households, because the disproportionate concentration of Democratic voters in urban centers means that normally Democrats must be up around +7 on the generic congressional ballot to win the House even narrowly.
  • We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.

    11/05/2018 9:57:14 AM PST · by SpeedyInTexas · 23 replies
    NY Times ^ | SEPT. 20, 2016 | NATE COHN
    You’ve heard of the “margin of error” in polling. Just about every article on a new poll dutifully notes that the margin of error due to sampling is plus or minus three or four percentage points. But in truth, the “margin of sampling error” – basically, the chance that polling different people would have produced a different result – doesn't even come close to capturing the potential for error in surveys. Polling results rely as much on the judgments of pollsters as on the science of survey methodology. Two good pollsters, both looking at the same underlying data, could come...
  • ABC Anchor: ‘Trump Is So Unpopular’, ‘Why Is This Not a Blowout?'

    11/04/2018 10:22:15 AM PST · by Kaslin · 132 replies ^ | November 4, 2018 | Nicholas Fondacaro
    With just two days to go until the polls closed on the midterm elections, Republicans were working hard to get out their base and liberal media were working hard to get out the Democratic Party’s base. During the Sunday edition of ABC’s Good Morning America, they touted President Trump’s job approval rating slipping to 40 percent. Despite that good news to them, co-anchor Dan Harris was seemingly dismayed as he turned to Clinton lackey George Stephanopoulos, asking: “why is this not a blowout?” Stephanopoulos gave Harris a couple of reasons for why Republicans were still in the game this close...
  • Why the Ones Who Got EVERYTHING Wrong in 2016 Probably Won’t Like 2018 Any Better

    11/04/2018 6:10:07 AM PST · by Kaslin · 35 replies ^ | November 4, 2018 | Kevin McCullough
    Three days before the election in 2016 every major pollster in the nation predicted Hillary Clinton would be the next President of the United States. Three days before the election in 2016 President Trump was at that time as risky a bet for conservatives & Republicans as he was for working class Democrats. They had all been let down by an establishment system that claimed to put them first but had seldom delivered in the previous number of years. Three days before the election in 2016 nearly every major media pundit believed the never-Trump split in the Republican Party would...
  • AZ Senate-POLL: McSally has lead over Sinema as election nears.

    10/31/2018 8:33:06 PM PDT · by Az Joe · 25 replies
    ABC 15 Phoenix ^ | 0/31/2018 | Justin Pazera
    The exclusive ABC15 Arizona and OH Predictive Insights poll shows McSally with a seven-point lead with 52% of the vote compared to Sinema's 45%. On the flip-side, a CNN poll also released Wednesday had Sinema with 51% of the vote compared to McSally's 47%.
  • Data company predicts Brakey will win U.S. Senate seat – but makes a King-sized mistake [Maine]

    10/26/2018 6:08:27 AM PDT · by Steven Scharf · 1 replies
    Portland Press Herald ^ | 10/25/2016 | Staff Report
    Portland Press Herald October 25, 2018 Data company predicts Brakey will win U.S. Senate seat – but makes a King-sized mistake The firm projects winners based on Google searches for candidates. A global data company is trying to make a splash with a study that predicts the outcome of next month’s U.S. Senate elections based on Google searches for each candidate’s name. When it comes to Maine’s Senate race, the marketing data firm, SEMrush, makes a bold prediction: that Republican Eric Brakey will win, with 54 percent of the vote. But SEMrush forgot something important: the incumbent, Sen. Angus King....
  • Interest in Midterms Boosts Trump's Approval Rating to its Highest Mark of his Time in Office

    10/21/2018 7:28:49 AM PDT · by Trump20162020 · 70 replies
    The Wall Street Journal ^ | Oct. 21, 2018 | Janet Hook
    New WSJ/NBC News poll finds President Trump’s job-approval rating at 47%, the highest mark of his time in office.
  • Poll: Martha McSally surges to six-point lead in Senate race against Kyrsten Sinema

    10/09/2018 10:51:35 PM PDT · by Trump20162020 · 45 replies
    ABC News ^ | October 9, 2018 | Danielle Lerner
    PHOENIX - A new poll of Arizona's contested Senate race shows frontrunner Republican Martha McSally increasing her lead over Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. In the latest ABC15/OH Predictive Insights poll, McSally has a six-point edge on Sinema, 47 percent to 41 percent. Eight percent said they had yet to decide on a candidate.
  • Poll: Heller leads by 2 points in Nevada Senate race

    10/09/2018 5:48:38 PM PDT · by SMGFan · 23 replies
    The Hill ^ | October 9, 2018
    Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) holds a slim but statistically insignificant lead over Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) in the Nevada Senate race with a month left until Election Day, a poll released Tuesday found. An NBC News/Marist poll shows Heller leading 46-44 percent among likely voters. The difference falls within the poll's margin of error of 5.5 points. Heller is considered one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for reelection next month. The poll found that independents favor Heller, 42-39 percent. The incumbent is also the preferred candidate among likely male voters by a 16-point margin. Rosen holds an 11-point...
  • Democrats' advantage in recent polls may not bring the 'blue wave' they're hoping for

    10/07/2018 1:31:26 PM PDT · by SpeedyInTexas · 29 replies
    CNBC ^ | 10/07/2018 | John W. Schoen
    Polls this year show that Democratic voters have become "energized" enough to swing control of at least one branch of Congress in the coming midterm election. But data from past midterm "waves" suggest that Democrats could be headed for a disappointing November.
  • Fox News Poll: Republicans make gains in top Senate races

    10/03/2018 3:31:27 PM PDT · by Trump20162020 · 40 replies
    FOX News ^ | October 3, 2018 | Dana Blanton
    A new round of Fox News battleground polls shows a Republican trend in the fight for the U.S. Senate. The GOP candidates are helped by increased interest in the election among Republicans and pro-Donald Trump sentiment. Arizona Kyrsten Sinema: 47% Martha McSally: 45% Indiana Joe Donnelly: 43% Mike Braun: 41% Missouri Claire McCaskill: 43% Josh Hawley: 43% North Dakota Kevin Cramer: 53% Heidi Heitkamp: 41% Tennessee Marsha Blackburn: 48% Phil Bredesen: 43%
  • Americans Still Closely Divided on Kavanaugh Confirmation (plurality want Kavanaugh confirmed)

    10/03/2018 3:02:06 PM PDT · by Trump20162020 · 11 replies
    Gallup ^ | October 3, 2018 | Staff
    WASHINGTON, D.C. -- During a week in which Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh defended himself before the Senate against sexual assault allegations, a growing percentage of Americans now have an opinion about whether he should be confirmed. Currently, 46% of Americans are in favor of the Senate confirming Kavanaugh and 45% are opposed, with 9% having no opinion. Three prior polls conducted between July and mid-September showed close divisions of opinion, but with more than twice as many as now having no opinion.
  • Kavanaugh polling: FBI on the hot seat

    09/30/2018 7:36:32 PM PDT · by Trump20162020 · 30 replies
    The Hill ^ | September 30, 2018 | Mark Penn
    If the FBI finds no corroboration of the charges, 60 percent believe that Kavanaugh should then be confirmed, according to a weekend Harvard CAPS/Harris poll of 1,330 registered voters. In terms of the overall needle, after the testimony was heard, 37 percent say confirm the nomination, 44 percent say reject it, and 18 percent remain undecided, with Democrats going one way and Republicans the other. But once the voters are told that the named witnesses deny any knowledge of the allegation, this shifts to 57 percent who favor confirmation — and that goes up to 60 percent, if the FBI...
  • Polling in Real Time: The 2018 Midterm Elections

    The NY Times and Siena College are polling the "tossup" Midterm districts. Of the polling done in September so far, 7 REPs are leading, 3 DEMs are leading and 1 tied race out of 11 districts polled (DECENT RESULTS FOR REPUBLICANS!) 5 more districts are being polled right now. Results can be viewed in Real Time. Republicans are leading in 3 of the 5. What is shocking to me is the very low response rate. For example, in Colorado 6, there have been 489 responses out of 26,456 phone calls. That is less than 2% taking the poll. How can...
  • Poll: McSally takes lead over Sinema in Arizona Senate race

    09/12/2018 9:54:55 AM PDT · by mandaladon · 38 replies
    The Hill ^ | 12 Sep 2018 | TAL AXELROD
    Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) has taken a narrow lead over Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) in the Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) according to a new ABC15–OH Predictive Insights poll released Wednesday. It is McSally's first lead in the poll that comes just under eight weeks before the midterm elections. The poll shows McSally overtaking Sinema with 49 percent of the likely vote compared to Sinema’s 46 percent, a difference that falls within the margin of error. Sinema had led by 6 points in the poll earlier this year. Both candidates enjoy positive favorability ratings by similar...
  • Poll: Arizona Senate race in dead heat

    09/10/2018 9:44:01 AM PDT · by SMGFan · 44 replies
    The Hill/ MSN ^ | September 10, 2018
    Arizona's Senate race is in a dead heat, with Rep. Martha McSally (R) narrowly leading Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) by 1 point, according to a new poll. A Gravis Marketing poll found McSally ahead of Sinema 49 to 48 percent, a lead within the survey's 3.3-point margin of error. Three percent of voters are still undecided. Monday's survey is the first one this year where McSally, who recently won a competitive three-way primary, is polling slightly ahead of Sinema, who didn't face a fierce primary fight.
  • Exit Poll Projects Mixed Voter Message in Sweden Election

    09/09/2018 12:56:11 PM PDT · by Texas Fossil · 62 replies
    U.S. News and World Report ^ | 9-9-18 | By PIETRO DECRISTOFARO and JAN OLSEN, Associated Press
    Exit poll projects center-left party will win Swedish election, far-right party with white supremacist roots coming in second. STOCKHOLM (AP) — An exit poll indicated that Sweden's first general election since the Scandinavian country accepted a significant number of asylum-seekers was likely to have the center-left party governing now as its winner, but an anti-immigrant party with white supremacist roots placing second in balloting Sunday. Public broadcaster SVT said immediately after polls closed that its exit poll indicated the ruling Social Democrats would remain Sweden's largest party, but making its worst-ever showing with 26.2 percent of the vote. The exit...
  • Poll: John Cox closes in on Gavin Newsom, Kevin de León gaining on Dianne Feinstein

    09/07/2018 10:02:52 AM PDT · by onyx · 50 replies
    SFGATE ^ | Thursday, September 6, 2018 | ERIC TING
    According to a new poll, California's two biggest statewide races in 2018 are tightening, as the leads for front-runners Gavin Newsom and Dianne Feinstein have been cut to single digits. The poll, conducted by Probolsky Research between Aug. 29 and Sept. 2, found that Lt. Gov. Newsom leads Republican businessman John Cox 44 percent to 39, with 17 percent of the poll's participants saying that they are undecided. Additionally, the poll found that Sen. Feinstein leads progressive challenger Kevin de León 37 percent to 29, with a whopping 34 percent of participants undecided.
  • AP-NORC Poll: Few Democrats favor liberal cry to abolish ICE

    09/06/2018 12:37:30 PM PDT · by Trump20162020 · 4 replies
    The Associated Press ^ | Aug. 27, 2018 | Thomas Beaumont
    WASHINGTON (AP) — The rallying cry from some liberals to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement isn’t a likely winner this election year, as a new poll finds only a quarter of Democrats support eliminating the agency that carried out the Trump administration’s policy of separating immigrant children from their parents. Some potential Democratic presidential contenders, such as Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, backed getting rid of ICE in response to the separations. Others, including Sen. Kamala Harris of California, urged a rethinking of the agency, but stopped short of calling for its abolition. President Donald Trump has seized on...
  • NBC News/Marist Poll: Pennsylvanians give low marks to Trump and tariffs

    08/26/2018 7:39:54 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 69 replies
    NBC News ^ | 08/26/2018 | by Ben Kamisar
    Pennsylvania, a state that helped put President Donald Trump in the White House, isn’t too keen on the president’s tariff push, a new NBC News/Marist poll finds, as a near majority fears that the ongoing trade war will ultimately damage the U.S. economy. Forty-five percent of Pennsylvania adults believe that tariffs and other import barriers will raise costs of consumer goods and hurt the country’s economy. By comparison, 27 percent believe they will protect American jobs and help the economy. The administration’s trade policy is unpopular across virtually all demographic groups in the NBC/Marist poll — the only groups where...