Any questions?
Posted on 10/08/2004 4:09:26 PM PDT by MarlboroRed
There’s no denying, based on the movement in the polls, Kerry has done himself some good. We can quibble with the sampling of these nationwide polls, but what was once a race that the president was in position to run away with is now very close again. Kerry may even be leading — between his cheerleaders in the media and the solidifying Democratic base, we should not be surprised by post-debate polls showing Kerry up.
And those who support Bush should not be surprised to see another tsunami of coverage hyping the “Kerry is a great closer” myth. In other words, if you’re pulling for W., it will probably get worse before it gets better. Such is life, sometimes.
But there is still the matter of the electoral college.
RealClearPolitics posts an astute analysis of where things stand.
Short version: If Kerry wins all of the Gore states, Bush still gets 278 electoral votes. So Kerry needs to pick off a few red states. His chances in New Hampshire look good, and it's possible for Kerry, if he focuses almost all of his attention and resources there, to win Ohio. (I also wonder about Nevada and Colorado.)
But Bush is looking very good in Wisconsin (still up by 3 points, after Kerry spent three days in the Badger state) and he's got a decent shot at Iowa, maybe Minnesota. I thought New Mexico would go red, but the loose voter-identification standards imposed by the state's Supreme Court should help Democrats get their "voters" to the polls.
The good news for Republicans is that after a tough week for Bush and a good week for the Democrats, Kerry still has a tough road to get 270 electoral votes. (Tough, but far from impossible.) But Republicans should be worried that the president is now in a position where he needs a break or two to go his way between now and Election Day.
CrushKerry.com observes that the sampling in the Time poll has changed dramatically. The prior poll, showing Bush up by 6 was weighted 36-31 in favor of the GOP. The new one is weighted 36-32 in favor of the Democrats.
I'm not saying that this is a deliberate effort on the part of Time to skew its results. But if you suddenly poll more Democrats and less Republicans, wouldn't you expect Bush's lead to shrink or disappear?
I love the bias...the author admits Bush was running away with it before Debate 1. We NEVER heard that from the left prior to Debate 1...it was always very CLOSE according to them. What Debate 1 did was allow the left to spin Kerry won because Bush stared in the camera for 5 full seconds with nothing coming out of his mouth and he looked angry. Big Deal! That made voters think kerry has a plan just because he uses the words, "I have a plan"...we never get past the words "I have a plan" though...
Once Bush performs well tonight the the battle ground states will be lining up behind Bush. Kerry will NOT win Bush 2000 states and is likely to lose Wisconsin and Iowa...possibly Minnesota too. For a nation so DIVIDED as the media says we shouldn't have any undecides..as they have taken sides and DIVIDED the country....any performance..good, bad, fantastic or awful in a debate isn't going to move polls IF the nation really is as divided as the MSM and the libs like to say.
Remember when they say it is close...they are losing big time.
Why the hell do all of us have our heads in the sand? There's a fight on, and most of you are acting like gentleman Senators picnicking on the hills overlooking the First Battle of Bull Run.
Any questions?
My apologies...
I heard the exact statement today from Kerry's blond haired spokesgirl on Fox News...
She said, "Before the first debate Bush was pulling away and after the debate Kerry is pulling ahead"...
Sounded too much like the talking point marching orders from the Dummies. When they admit they were behind...saying it was close..and being honest about it, you have to assume everytime they say it is close they are really behind.
I agree we should view anything from MSM with skepticism.
But several times today, people have been accusing me of defeatism when I think it's important for us to recognize that the dynamics of this race have changed since last week.
We're in a fight, they're intimidating our voters, attacking our headquarters.
Kerry has forgotten all about 9/11 and he hopes america has too..
What are the chances France, Germany & the UN will be treated with "diplomatic immunity" by the President who will refrain from a much deserved bashing and avoid any mention of Oil for Fraud?
Predictions anyone?
Well I am pessimistic but
1. I can't see any who voted for Bush in 2000 going for Kerry
2. Some traditional dems have to come to their sense in the voting both
3. Black vote does not seem to be at 90%
4. I can't believe vietnam veterans will not be motivated to vote against Kerry
Bass Ackwards Dork.
I frankly do not buy for a minute, the possibility that John 'F-ing' Kerry will receive 270 electoral votes. Period.
Lines I'd like to see Bush use:
"Senator you keep attacking my record as President. I'll put the record home ownership, the consumer indexes, the over 3000 al-Qaeda we've captured or killed in over 100 countries, the fall and capture of Saddam Hussein, his sons and his regime against your lame and unimpressive 20 year Senate career who's biggest achievement is a 75% absentee voting record any day, any time, any place Senator."
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