I do not think it's responsible for RCP to boil this down to Ohio.
Funny things can happen with the Electoral Map in the last two weeks.
Look for Kerry's people to claim the Big Mo, in order to have the media tout a farcical upswing for their guy.
However, I still beleive it's Bush's to lose, and also that he might carry a few states that will shock the media.
New Jersey comes to mind.
As well as un-funny things, like in Spain or Russia.
New Jersey may be the sleeper state, Galtoid. People forget that Reagan carried it twice by huge margins and that Bush 41 handily beat Dukakis there in 1988. The fact that Edwards was there twice this past week means it is not a safe Demo state and may be more attractive to Bush than Pennsylvania. People also forget that with redistricting, Bush's 271 electoral votes in 2000 are now 278 electoral votes from the same states, meaning he can lose New Hampshire AND Nevada and still win the election IF he wins just one of the two congressional districts in Maine (he can lose the state but he still gets ONE electoral vote if he carries a district). That would give him 270, one more than needed.