I am sorry to say that I believe IL would have gone kerry in any case...but would love to be proven wrong.
We're within shouting distance on the Prez vote...but Keyes is doing his damndest to make sure Bush tanks. A slightly more competent campaign without the usual cloud of grifters who seem to attach themselves to certain candidates (such as Keyes) would've helped.
BTW, "seagull campaigning" is when a candidate flies in, makes a lot of noise, craps all over everything and everybody, and flies out :o)
Even when Jack Ryan was strong, nobody really thought we'd get Illinois.