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I believe that right now there is a very large seller of Bush contracts making himself felt. I noticed this several weeks ago and then have been numerous attempts to move the market lower since then. I would guess this seller has sold between 40,000 and 60,000 contracts and maybe more over a period of weeks. For the last few days the seller has kept his foot on the market to keep it below 55 and has stepped in this morning to sell it down to 54. (It keeps popping up) The style of selling suggests that it is attempt to hold the market down for EFFECT. I am sure a large number of pundits and commentators check in with the market regularly. I have moved my share of stocks myself and recognize when it is occurring. Everyone can play in this market for whatever reason. But the assumption is one is trying to make money. This seller has not made smart short term trades which suggests that money may not the primary motivation. One can sell 100,000 of $10 contracts at, for example, 55 and the risk of loss is $450,000 if Bush wins. It may be good PR to whack this market, unsettle the Bush pundits and Bush campaign while whipping up the Kerry troops. (The BIG MO.) Actually, not a bad investment. If it works it would even make $550,000/100,000 sold. But the are plenty of well heeled democrats who just may consider it a contribution to the cause. Soros could even be having fun with it.