RealClear Politics Puts Florida in the Toss-up Column Bush-227 Kerry-220 Electoral Votes

RealClear Politics ^ | 10/18/04 | Redstate38

[dawn53]

I have been working for a bush win since 2002.

Since 2002...what about 2000 when he ran for President?

But I'll take you at your word and say this...were the polls accurate in the 2002 elections.

Heck no...the Congressional elections were a total surprise to the pundits and the polls...in fact, they even surprised me a little.

So I'm not fretting this election, what good would that do. Who cares what any poll says at this point.

Polls are psychological tools used by the MSM to encourage/discourage electorate turnout, anyway at this point of the game that's how they're used.

That's why your gloomy message seems a little suspicious..."Bush is losing" seems to be the cry of many new posters and what would be their motivation other than to try to discourage voter turnout.

[GoBucks2002]

Ohio and Florida are giving me an ulcer God why cant BUsh open up a clear lead in these places

Can't speak for Florida, but I'll give Ohio a shot:

Note: some of these are my own experience, and some are anecdotal.

Because Kerry, the DNC and the 527s are easily outspending our side 3-1 in ads on TV.

Because when you call the Bush campaign (if you can find someone to give you the number) you get someone that can't give directions to the office-- if the phone gets answered at all.

Because when you call and you ask to get called to help out, you never do get a call back.

Because when you go into the Bush office, if they don't know who you are, they act like you don't exist.

Because the Bush campaign, if they do know who you are, and they do happen to like you, can't figure out that you have a real job and can't break away from it on 20 minutes' notice.

Because the Kerry campaign gets people to canvass neighborhoods all over, while the Bush campaign gets people to gether on Saturday morning, and (this one is firsthand) forgets to bring the campaign literature!

Because when they remember to bring the lit to a lit-drop meeting, they send people into areas that vote 80% Republican anyway. (Although, to be honest, I wouldn't want to walk around by myself even in some of the swing areas around here.)

Because when I signed up to host a Party for the President in Ohio, I received a list of "neighbors" to invite, all of whom lived in another county and another area code.

Because when I sent the Bush campaign $50, they spent much more than that trying to get me to send in more money.

None of these incidents have diminished my enthusiasm for President Bush. Indeed, I have been able to meet him and Vice-President Cheney this year. I have volunteered as crowd control at one rally, got a VIP pass for another, have walked my precinct for him, have hosted a Party for the President, have passed out Bush-Cheney stickers at high school football games and parish festivals, and have recruited others to do the same.

But... you asked the question, and I have given you an honest answer.

[MNJohnnie]

Ohio and Florida are giving me an ulcer
God why cant BUsh open up a clear lead in these places

Because the state polls lag behind the national polls by a week to 10 days. By next week we should see the current Bush gains reflected in the state polls

[redstate38]

thanks for that.

[pissant]

Remember the polls showing Jeb in a nailbiter. The pollsters poll who they want to get the desired result (they are as partisan as the "neutral" MSM. Near Nov. 2, the better pollsters will start to show Bush ascending, so they keep their street cred.

[MNJohnnie]

RCP state poll averages are probably skewing due to the latest batch of Survey USA



WHO is Survey USA? Never heard of them before and am suspicious.

[CedarDave]

If your prediction does indeed come to pass, I will send you not just a six-pack, but a CASE of your favorite beverage and will throw in some snacks too!!

(Don't forget: remind me of this bet in two weeks!!)

[dawn53]

I'm in a democratic precinct of Florida, but they still enforce the 2 forms of ID (voter registration and photo ID.)

Now the Florida Supreme Court has come down and said "provisional ballots" may only be cast in the precinct to which you belong, so that's a big win against possible fraud.

[RoseofTexas]

What are the area media sensing from the early voter turn out? I freaked when I saw a clip of Florida's early voting lines of Black folk and lawyers standing guard at the entrance! What you make of it?

[stockstrader]

Florida is getting too close for comfort. Floridians need to do their best to get the vote out for "W"--as we know the democrats will be pulling out all the stops.

At this stage, it's going to come down to one thing....TURNOUT!!!

[MNJohnnie]

Past time to wake the kitties?


Of course you do realize that the Movone.org Kiddes and the DNC staffers only work weekdays? That's why the doom and gllomers only show up Mon-Friday

[JustaCowgirl]

"I am convinced that there is a bunch of newbie-troll-Mobie accounts posting what they think will take our momentum every chance they get."

I think you are exactly right. And I took the time to go through one poster's nine month's worth of posts today when I thought he/she posted two suspicious polls in a row. Sure enough, nothing but nine months of posts with doom and gloom and hand-wringing over 'bad poll numbers.' No posts on any other subject. So it isn't just newbies.

[redstate38]

Seriously, I am NOT a kerry plant!!
And by 2002, I meant towards his reelection.
I have given weeks of my life, as all the freepers have towards the reelection of this president and a conservative congress. I am just a bit concerned over some of the numbers these state polls come back with.
I honestly started this post seeking Info, as that is what is best about FRN. Fellow Freepers and conservatives, please---no hostility.
Reagan's golden Rule-"never say ill of another Republican"

[Rumierules]

What do you mean by lag?

I know that a lot of state polls are stale when national polls come out. This is because national polls come out more frequently.

But when state polls, like this round of SUSA polls come out and the calls were just made recently, there should be no lag. Bush was doing well nationally, why wasn't he doing well in these states. Under these circumstances, it is either the poll itself, or, as the MSM is suggesting, Bush support is coming from people in out of play states.

[COEXERJ145]

What's up with all these recent newbies posting news that isn't necessarily anything but a burp in the polling..

Been going on for months now. Remember KQQL, POA2, and disCOURAGE? All they did was post doom and gloom in the polls threads. I know that POA2 has been back (and banned) numerous times and I wouldn't be surprised if the others were weren't at it as well. Add to that the usual trolls, Mobites, and DUmmies, and we get a large influx of trolling in every poll thread.

[Rumierules]

I have heard a lot of anxiety about voter fraud and am sure there will be some in Florida as elsewhere. But because of what happended in 2000, Republicans here don't care about getting accused about being intimidators or racists. They just want to follow the law and win.

[plushaye]

They've been around for 12 years. The real drawback to their research and to Rasmussen is they poll with a recorded voice in automated way. I hang up every time I get a recorded survey phone call. This kind of response skews results, which is why poll junkies warn against following this kind of polling method too closely.

[texasrad]

These national polls are making me almost as optimistic as I was this time in 2000. Ras had Bush by 9, Others had him up by a couple to a few. Zog was the only to have Gore, but only by one, an outlier. Bush loses the popular vote by 0.5%.

I can not comprehend why anyone in there right mind would vote for Kerry and I hope Bush can get a nice comfortable victory by at least a few points. But it's not worth even taking the tiniest risk of waking up on Nov 3rd and having Pres. Elect Kerry.

Forget the polls. If you live or have friends or family in OH, FL, WI, NH, NM, IA, NV, get as many potential republican voters out. If you go to church, talk to as many people at church as you can. Walk your neighborhood 72 hrs before the election and on election day. Send out emails or calls to long time friends you have not spoken to in awhile. Take it very seriously and have no regrets.

Cautious Optimism.

[pissant]

I will.

[MNJohnnie]

What do you mean by lag?

I know that a lot of state polls are stale when national polls come out. This is because national polls come out more frequently.


When we were seeing all this "Kerry surge in the polls" Bush was being projected to win 300+ Electoral votes. That lead did not disappear until last week. The other propblem with State polls is you have NO idea who is doing the polling. For example, the Star Tribune poll here in Minnesota shows Kerry up 5. Problem is the Star Trib is the democrat State papers and routinely oversampled Democrats by about 5%. Historically they have missed just about every race by at least 5 and some times as much as 10 points. So now you have all this projection being based on a fraudulent poll. I would not sweat the state polls that come from some unknown group. I would watch where Zogby (if your a pessimist) or Rassmussen puts the states. They tend to be more reliable then some Democrat Front group, posing as a polling firm, that suddenly release a poll showing "Kerry +1 in Florida" It's easy to get any poll to say just about anything. IF I interview 500 Republicans in MInnesota, the poll is going to say one thing. If I interview 500 Democrats, it will say a completely different result.

You have to be really cynical about polls. A lot of them are release right before an election to Depress the turnout of a certain party. Given the massive effort at Voter Fraud, I suspect we will be seeing a lot of Democrat directed polls suddenly come out of the wood work showing how great Kerry is doing. I suspect after the election a certain number of "Poll groups" are going to suddenly disappear because they are going to be so grossly wrong. For example, WHO YHE HECK is Survey USA and why should I accept their numbers as being serious?