Posted on 10/21/2004 9:01:59 AM PDT by mrs9x
Good news here....
Hopefully this is a sign of W pulling away. I still think the turnout will widen this margin by about 5 points.
It is almost a perfect sine wave. This weekend Kerry will pull even then Bush will go ahead with 49 or 50 next Thursday.
Bush 48.8%
Kerry 46.2%
50-48 with leaners
I really want to see more 50 percent numbers for W in these polls. He got 48 last time and that was too close.
Remember the simple rule:
Bush Up = Trend
Kerry Up = Noise
also
Thursday October 21, 2004--Fifty-three percent (53%) of American voters say they approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President.
Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters disapprove.
The President's Job Approval has not dipped below 51% since the Republican National Convention. Since Labor Day, it has generally been at 52% or 53%, but it has occasionally slipped to 51% or moved up to 54%.
During all of 2004, it has ranged from a high of 57% in early January to a low of 48% on May 17.
Job Approval +1 at 53
Nice!!
No offense, but this happens every Thursday and Friday.
I hope to see him over 50% tomorrow, but because of weekend polling, it'll be in the dirt again on Monday-Wednesday of next week.
Job approval in the low 50s or better means re-election.
The base numbers are building...and the pollsters are trying to get as close to actual now as possible...they can not wait to long to be wrong or outside the box....when Nov 3rd comes they will all be trying to claim the title "most accurate pollster".
Very good positive trend. Pray it continues.
That's why I saved I won't find any comfort zone until Bush is able to sustain a lead through weekend polling...
Rasmussen cracks me up. It never fails that when Kerry has two strong days and appears to be about to take the lead, Bush has a strong day, and when Bush has two strong days and appears to be about to get 50%, Kerry has a strong day. The trend continues... I estimate the three day average to be 51.0/50.5/44.9 Bush, 45.1/46.9/46.6 Kerry. Tomorrow a good day rolls off for Bush so his numbers might slip, but Kerry seems stuck between 46-47%. I predict tomorrow we'll be back to 48 Bush, 47 Kerry.
Election 2004
Date Bush Kerry
Today 48.8 46.2
Oct 19 48.3 46.9
Oct 19 48.2 46.6
Oct 18 47.5 47.3
Oct 17 48.5 46.4
Oct 16 48.3 46.2
Oct 15 49.0 45.5
It's showing Bush up and Kerry going down! Good Trend
Didn't one of you guys call this almost perfectly yesterday analyzing the overnight numbers?
Reass has an awful track record. Like most pollsters, he wants to keep it close to keep us all talking about his profession.
Job approval in the low 50s or better means re-election
Umm, actually there is no know connetion between JA an reelection unless it is significant. Those president's who have very low JA lost, those with very high, won. We don't have any record of what happens to a Pres who is between those lows and the highs. There is no way to forcast from the JA number because Bush's is way higher then the losers but not as high as the winners.
The other thing to keep in mind from JA Number. A significant number of those who DISAPPROVE think Bush is too moderate. They will NEVER give Bush a favorable, but they ALSO never will EVER vote for a Traitor Globalists like Kerry.
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