[Southack]

OK, here's where the election stands: we need 269 Electoral Votes to win (because we control the House and Senate). The other side would need 270 to beat us.  Right now it looks like we've got 227 versus their 200, or do the ME switch and we've got 228 versus 199.

Maine (ME) is a special case. GWB should get 1 of its 4 EV's. This means that of the white states that you see above, we need *any* combination that gets us 41 or more outright EV's (i.e. up to 268) plus ME's 1. That takes us from 227 up to 269, where we win.

You can run numerous scenarios, but the above is what is at stake and how it will all play out in only a few states is all that remains of the Election 2004 drama (court challenges notwithstanding).  This should enable everyone to simplify Election 2004 in their heads.  Roughly, there are just 9 states that are contestable by both sides.  They are shown in white above.  Worries or hopes about any other states for either side pretty much deviate from reality.  Keep it simple.  The 9 contested states are shown above, and we need 42 EV's from them (or 41 plus ME's 1).  That's the whole race right now.

[GeronL]

Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota and Wisconsin go to Kerry.

I think Bush will actually come close if not take Michigan (a feeling). A poll of 400 today said Bush led 47-43

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What would that do?

[fortheDeclaration]

It is interesting that even though Bush is leading in both Ohio and Fl. they are never put in his column.

According to the polls NJ and Hawaii are in a dead heat, yet they are put in Kerry's column.

[Always Right]

OK, here's where the election stands: we need 269 Electoral Votes to win (because we control the House and Senate). The other side would need 270 to beat us. Right now it looks like we've got 227 versus their 200

The map looks good, but anybody who still have Michigan as a Kerry state is just plain wrong. Michigan is more than just in play, its a tossup at best. Throw in the gay marriage factor and its advantage Bush.