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Don't Ask Me
Washingtonpost.com ^ | 10/28/2004 | Richard Morin

Posted on 10/28/2004 12:29:08 PM PDT by Merry

As the director of polling for The Washington Post, I join my fellow pollsters in the hospitality rooms at professional meetings to drink cheap wine and listen as they talk nervously about the present and agonize about the future:

Two consecutive Election Day debacles have shaken public confidence in exit polls, once viewed as the crown jewel of political surveys.

Cell phones, Caller ID and increasingly elaborate call screening technologies make it harder than ever to reach a random sample of Americans. Prompted by the popularity of do-not-call lists, a few state legislatures are considering laws that would lump pollsters in with telemarketers and bar them from calling people at home.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
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This is a perfect explanation of why you shouldn't trust any of the polls. People are not cooperating and they are not getting a good cross section of the population or the numbers to get a decent poll result. This should be required reading for everyone on Free Republic.
1 posted on 10/28/2004 12:29:08 PM PDT by Merry
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To: Merry
Cell phones, Caller ID and increasingly elaborate call screening technologies make it harder than ever to reach a random sample of Americans.

Um... have you considered knocking on doors?

2 posted on 10/28/2004 12:31:16 PM PDT by Question Liberal Authority (How do you ask a goose to be the last goose to die for the Kerry campaign?)
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To: Question Liberal Authority

Too expensive to go door to door. for primary research. Agian the problem is not the sample, but the mix of the respondents, how many completes you get, and how clean/truthful the data are.


3 posted on 10/28/2004 12:33:09 PM PDT by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitor)
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To: Merry

This was destined to be a close election.

Then the poodle imprudently latched onto the NYT explosives farce. He got ahead of the facts, as usual. He's an idiot, like his newly adopted Red Sox. Only he's a REAL idiot!


4 posted on 10/28/2004 12:33:26 PM PDT by stevefromcalifornia
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To: Merry
"They are all over the map like diarrhea," rages filmmaker Michael Moore

Note to self: Never take a car ride into unknown territory with M.M.

5 posted on 10/28/2004 12:35:48 PM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: Blueflag

OK. But they could knock on doors to get a subsample to see whether their telephone polls are out of whack.

Or they could just wait until election night like everyone else to see how wrong they are.


6 posted on 10/28/2004 12:35:50 PM PDT by Question Liberal Authority (How do you ask a goose to be the last goose to die for the Kerry campaign?)
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To: Merry; 1stMarylandRegiment; 1Mike; 3catsanadog; ~Vor~; ~Kim4VRWC's~; A CA Guy; ...

Polling ping.

Merry, you always find the most interesting articles.


7 posted on 10/28/2004 12:36:05 PM PDT by Howlin (Bush has claimed two things which Democrats believe they own by right: the presidency & the future)
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To: Howlin

Thank you. I take that as a complement because the people on this board are so good at finding interesting articles. I'm glad to be in this company.


8 posted on 10/28/2004 12:38:50 PM PDT by Merry
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To: Izzy Dunne

LOL!


9 posted on 10/28/2004 12:39:57 PM PDT by The G Man (Are Osama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein better off now then they were 4 years ago?)
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To: Merry

It just seems to me that the ones you choose to post are topical and full of information we haven't read a bazillion times on here; I actually READ them without speed reading!

Thanks for taking the time; I had been worried about those cell phones.


10 posted on 10/28/2004 12:48:33 PM PDT by Howlin (Bush has claimed two things which Democrats believe they own by right: the presidency & the future)
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To: Merry

mark to read later


11 posted on 10/28/2004 12:48:49 PM PDT by RobFromGa (A desperate man is a dangerous man, and Kerry is getting desperate.)
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To: Merry
Let's assume that polling was 100% perfect.

Everybody answered the questions truthfully and willingly.

None of the pollsters had any agenda for their employer, or anybody.

Three organizations polled for President and got the same answer: Bush 51.39%, Kerry 47.39 % answer.

So what? They're not going to collect all that data and keep it under wraps. They're going to publish it.
And when they publish it, some Kerry voters will stay home because these three perfect corporations tell them it's hopeless. And some Bush voters will stay home because these three perfect corporations tell them it's unnecessary.
But how many stay home? Who knows?

So you have perfect polling, but unpredictable outcome.

12 posted on 10/28/2004 12:51:17 PM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: Howlin
Thanks for the ping. I like at least part of this as an explanation for Kerry's inflated numbers:

raising doubts whether such polls accurately reflect the views of the public or merely report the opinions of stay-at-home Americans who are too bored, too infirm or too lonely to hang up.

The lonely and bored favor Kerry.

13 posted on 10/28/2004 12:53:15 PM PDT by Dolphy (It's not a plan, it's an echo)
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To: Question Liberal Authority; Blueflag

Not just the expense .. it's the TIME INVOLVED IN GOING DOOR TO DOOR.

These pollsters do this stuff via email or by phone .. that's how they can do 1 day or 3 day polls.


14 posted on 10/28/2004 12:53:59 PM PDT by CyberAnt (Election 2004: This election is for the SOUL OF AMERICA)
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To: Question Liberal Authority

I vote in every election, I never respond to a phone call regarding a poll. If they came to the door I would ask them to leave like any other unwanted solicitor.

Voting is a civic duty, participating in a poll is not.


15 posted on 10/28/2004 12:58:21 PM PDT by Rev DMV
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To: Merry

Why do you exerpt from a source that requires regestration?

I don't think there is a hassle with posting from this source, and would like to know what is in the rest of the article and I don't like to register with a bunch of sites.


16 posted on 10/28/2004 1:08:33 PM PDT by Dan(9698)
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To: Merry
I got my call last night...told them:


GO PRESIDENT BUSH!!!!

Then I finished their poll, and answered all the questions they had!

17 posted on 10/28/2004 1:10:06 PM PDT by trussell (Unemployed intellectual...will act like a pompous ass for food!!)
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To: Dan(9698)

The Washington Post was listed on the Free Republic list of papers that have to exerpted because of copyright rules. If I tried to post the entire thing, Free Republic would have stopped me. I agree it's a pain to keep registering for sites.


18 posted on 10/28/2004 1:13:27 PM PDT by Merry
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To: Howlin; Merry
I got a call from Gallup (the Caller ID agreed) and thought, "Wow... I could represent around 200,000 people", but there were things to do so I declined.

I read polls like Horoscopes....fun, but that's about it.

19 posted on 10/28/2004 1:16:46 PM PDT by eddie willers
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To: Merry; Dan(9698)
You guys don't know about bugmenot?
20 posted on 10/28/2004 1:21:05 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (A Proud member of Free Republic ~~The New Face of the Fourth Estate since 1996.)
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