"Let's wait to see if it's really recent; Newpaper headlines, if he mentions very recent events, if it's his voice, etc."
The speaker in the video mentions Bush reading to the kids after the planes hit. That information didn't come out until the Michael Moore film, so the video has to be recent. The guy sure looks like Osama. Maybe it's just a good costume/makeup job, but the CIA doesn't think so.
Given the evidence, I think it's Osama, and recent.
Sorry, but I recall that criticism long before Moore and his screed. He just made it more famous.