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The State of Ohio and the Polls - What the Horserace Blog Has to Say on the Matter...

Posted on 10/29/2004 3:29:27 PM PDT by TBBT

Link to story for more information

I wanted to take an opportunity to calm the jittery nerves that many people have about OH. Recall the other day my post on good polls versus bad polls. Well, many people see this latest round of polling as an indication that Kerry is gaining and Bush is slipping. I do not. Rather, I see this as a direct consequence of the fact that the OH polls with decent methodologies -- Gallup, Fox News, Mason-Dixon -- have been replaced by polls with lousy methodologies. Zogby is an absolute joke. He does not even do a random sample. ARG heavily over-samples Democrats. Ron Brownstein would not even stand by The LA Times poll in his write up earlier this week. As a matter of fact, in the last week, only one polling firm that I respect has been doing OH polling, Strategic Vision, and they have shown Dubya up all week.

I exhort everybody to wait until Mason-Dixon, Gallup and Fox News come out with their polls on OH, if they choose to do so. The three polls that are current are not decent reflectiosn on the state of the OH race.


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
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1 posted on 10/29/2004 3:29:27 PM PDT by TBBT
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To: TBBT

bump


2 posted on 10/29/2004 3:30:27 PM PDT by AMDG&BVMH
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To: TBBT

Have any idea when the OH polls will come?


3 posted on 10/29/2004 3:31:25 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: TBBT
I also recommend you go to this story for information on Which Polls to Watch, and Which Polls to Ignore Link to story
4 posted on 10/29/2004 3:32:18 PM PDT by TBBT
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To: AMDG&BVMH

I read this guy a lot. If he is right, he has a very bright future. He is far more analytical and insightful that most TV and print pundits. If he is wrong, he probably still has a bright future but will be viewed as a more analytical--but mostly typical-- pundit.

I hope he is right.


5 posted on 10/29/2004 3:33:25 PM PDT by Rumierules
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To: RoseofTexas

Fox OH out today. Bush up 3.


6 posted on 10/29/2004 3:36:43 PM PDT by LS
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To: Rumierules

Also, Tim Dunkin, of "The Baby Seal Club is excellent. (http://thesealclub.blogspot.com/)


7 posted on 10/29/2004 3:37:36 PM PDT by LS
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To: TBBT
"I exhort everybody to wait until Mason-Dixon, Gallup and Fox News come out with their polls on OH, if they choose to do so."

Waiting is for losers.  Remember the "DUI discovery" in 2000 worked against Bush by a LOT at the last minute in 2000.  Who knows what the 'rats will pull on Sunday night and Monday.  It ain't over until it's over.  So KEEP ON CAMPAIGNING!    Consider copying and emailing things like THIS again.

8 posted on 10/29/2004 3:39:06 PM PDT by FreeKeys (A TRAITOR for President? NEVER! Besides, nutcase Scary Kerry wants to give nuclear fuel to Iran!)
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To: LS

Is that you, Professor? When da heck are ya gonna put OH into the "safe" column so I can get some sleep?


9 posted on 10/29/2004 3:39:25 PM PDT by Cedric
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To: LS

your link doesn't work


10 posted on 10/29/2004 3:40:16 PM PDT by TBBT
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To: LS

Link to FOX OH?


11 posted on 10/29/2004 3:43:47 PM PDT by Rumierules
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To: LS

I haven't yet seen any state poll numbers out today on Fox...


12 posted on 10/29/2004 3:45:02 PM PDT by TBBT
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To: TBBT

I am in Southern Ohio and have lived in NW Ohio. The GOP has huge GOTV here and if Bush wins the popular vote he will win Ohio also. Don't worry about that. Ohio is like the rest of the nation and I know I live here. Bush won by 4 here in 2000 and nobody was here the last month.


13 posted on 10/29/2004 3:45:02 PM PDT by southohio
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To: southohio

I've lived in Cleveland and Cincinnati. I never really considered Ohio to be a solid Red state. More a Pink state that sometimes has a tendency to go Lite Blue...


14 posted on 10/29/2004 3:47:07 PM PDT by TBBT
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To: TBBT

I've also lived next door in Indiana. Now that is a solid Red state!


15 posted on 10/29/2004 3:48:38 PM PDT by TBBT
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To: TBBT

You're right, which is odd: it works in my bookmarks.

http://thesealclub.blogspot.com/

OK. I shouldn't have put parentheses around it. This works.


16 posted on 10/29/2004 3:49:26 PM PDT by LS
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To: Cedric

Ced, sorry, but I think it's gonna be about 10:30 Tues. night. That call will come, but it isn't gonna be validated until the votes start to get counted.


17 posted on 10/29/2004 3:50:17 PM PDT by LS
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To: Rumierules

Yah. Earlier: Bush up 5 nationally, 3 in OH.


18 posted on 10/29/2004 3:50:40 PM PDT by LS
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To: LS
I heard the overseas military votes were given an extension. How does that work? If it's a tide race for that particular state, won't they wait for those votes to be counted before they call it for that candidate? I think something like this happened in Oregon or Washington last time around...I THINK?
19 posted on 10/29/2004 3:54:53 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: LS

Mort on Fox just said PD Poll coming out tomorrow will show Bush up 48-45!


20 posted on 10/29/2004 3:56:26 PM PDT by Tuxedo (Real friends don't let friends vote Democrat.)
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